The impact of the number of sellers on quantal response equilibrium predictions in Bertrand oligopolies

This paper studies how increasing the number of sellers in a Bertrand oligopoly with homogenous goods affects the equilibrium price level predicted by logistic quantal response equilibrium (LQRE) and power‐function QRE (PQRE). We show that increasing the number of sellers reduces the average posted price in a PQRE, but can increase the average posted price in an LQRE. Our results indicate that the comparative‐static predictions of QRE (McKelvey & Palfrey, 1995, Games Econ Behav, 10, 6–38) are not necessarily robust to changes of the quantal response function.     

Appraising the precautionary principle – a decision analysis perspective

The public and regulators are naturally concerned about any decision that has uncertain but potentially serious health and environmental consequences. When facing such decisions, some individuals say we should resolve significant uncertainties before taking expensive action that may be unnecessary. Others support the precautionary principle, which says that policy makers should err on the side of caution by acting now to avoid or limit potentially detrimental consequences. This paper appraises the precautionary principle from a perspective decision analytic point of view. We argue that neither the 'resolve uncertainties before taking action' nor the 'act now on the side of caution' are appropriate as general policies for all environmental decision problems. Instead, we conclude that policy makers need to conduct sound, in-depth analyses to resolve the pros and cons of acting now versus conducting more research on a case-by-case basis.     

Die Erwartungen der Wirtschaft für 2011

Die Wirtschaft hat sich 2010 von der tiefsten Krise der Nachkriegsgeschichte erholt. Die Industriebranchen haben dabei schon wieder fast das Vorkrisenniveau erreicht. Die Branchenvertreter blicken trotz verschiedener Unsicherheitsfaktoren optimistisch auf das Jahr 2011.     

Effect of R&D and Market Concentration on Merger Outcomes – An Event Study of US Horizontal Mergers

This study examines the pattern of abnormal returns for merging companies and rivals, to determine investor expectations regarding the impact of horizontal mergers challenged by the government. Prior studies have indicated that the government may have challenged efficiency-enhancing mergers, as evidenced by the pattern of abnormal returns to rivals during merger events. This study uses a two-stage regression approach to examine those patterns, using challenged mergers from 1997 to 2007, and finds evidence of potential price effects from approved mergers. The results also show the mergers to have differential effects depending on the level of R&D, market concentration, and product sales.     

The use of infrared sensors and digital cameras for documenting visitor use patterns: a case study from D'Aguilar National Park,south-east Queensland,Australia

This study assesses the use of pyroelectric infrared sensors combined with digital cameras to document visitor use patterns on a Horse Trail Network within an area of D'Aguilar National Park; a peri-urban bushland reserved for a range of purposes and used by several user-groups. Data were obtained from four cameras and comprised 7000 photographs over 1000 days. Forty-five percent of photographs were false triggers attributable to environmental factors and 42% were of confirmed users. An exercise aimed at assessing camera success revealed that in this study capture rates were in the order of 63% for cyclists, 82% for pedestrians, 90% of motor vehicles and 100% for horses. Sources of error can be minimised and primarily include the internal and external camera settings. Major advantages of infrared digital cameras include the portability of the technique, low cost, digital data format and discrimination of user types. In this case study, two-thirds of total observed visitor numbers occur on weekends and two-thirds of all use occurs during morning daylight. Cyclists were the most common user-group per day, followed in descending order by walkers, joggers, motorised users, dogs, bushwalkers, horse-riders and trail-bike riders. Implications of this data for management are discussed.     

Misleading Inferences from Panel Unit Root Tests: a Reply*

Ford et al. (this issue) point out that the SURADF panel unit root test may be sensitive to panel composition. This reply shows that they overstate the case since they focus on a short time series of 44 observations. Type II errors are much more likely in this environment so that inconsistent conclusions may arise for individual panel members across differently composed panels. We demonstrate that this problem becomes much less likely when the number of time‐series observations increases.     

Problem bank loans, conflicts of interest, and institutions

I consider problem bank loans as the outcome of decisions made by banks in the dual role they serve as financial intermediaries. This dual role necessarily introduces conflicts of interest that can lead to bank mismanagement and consequently problem bank loans. Because bank activities take place within the tangible and intangible structure of institutions, institutions may affect the quality of bank loans. I consider legal, political, sociological, economic, and banking institutions and explore their contribution to problem bank loans. I find support that a variety of institutions impact the share of bank assets that are non-performing.     

Foreign Banks in Transition Countries: To Whom Do They Lend and How Are They Financed?

We use focused interviews with managers of foreign parent banks and their affiliates in Central Europe and the Baltic States to analyze the small‐business lending and internal capital markets of multinational financial institutions. Our approach allows us to complement the standard empirical literature, which has difficulty in analyzing important issues such as lending technologies and capital allocation. We find that the acquisition of local banks by foreign banks has not led to a persistent bias in these banks' credit supply toward large multinational corporations. Instead, increased competition and the improvement of subsidiaries' lending technologies have led foreign banks to gradually expand into the SME and retail markets. Second, it is demonstrated that local bank affiliates are strongly influenced by the capital allocation and credit steering mechanisms of the parent bank.     

Dimensions of hunting satisfaction: Multiple‐satisfactions of wild turkey hunting

Abstract

Dimensions of hunting satisfaction were studied among a sample of hunters who received permits to hunt wild turkeys in Michigan. Principal components analysis revealed seven dimensions of turkey hunting satisfaction: preparation, search, harvest, nature, out‐group social, companionship, and season. Although some components of turkey hunting satisfaction were similar to those studied previously for deer hunters, components found in this study to be important to turkey hunters’ satisfaction point to the importance of studying hunting groups of diverse species in order to understand more fully the satisfactions people derive from hunting.     

Reconceptualizing the effects of lean on production costs with evidence from the F-22 program

A central tenet in the theory of lean production is that the implementation of lean practices will reduce waste and thereby decrease costs. However, not all lean implementations have produced such results. Apparently, this effect is moderated by several factors, potentially even to the point of reversal. It is important to increase our understanding of how this might occur. In this paper, we explore how novelty, complexity, instability, and buffering affect the relationship between lean implementation and production costs. An interest in these factors drew us to study the case of Lockheed Martin's production system for the F-22, an extremely complex and innovative product. To build theory, we synthesize our empirical data from the case with other existing theory, such as theories of learning and complexity. Through this analysis, we develop a revised framework that reconceptualizes the effect of lean on production costs and use it to develop 11 propositions to direct further research. Included among these are propositions about how the timing, scale, and extent of lean implementation can regulate the benefits of lean. Furthermore, when the objective of lean is construed as the provision of value, we propose that this value is an emergent property of a complex process, different from the mere sum of the values provided by its constituent tasks. Therefore, the elimination of tasks will not guarantee cost reduction, and lean may provide even greater value by incorporating some aspects of agile manufacturing. Overall, we develop a fuller range of the effects of lean practices on production costs and illuminate how operations managers might control key variables to draw greater benefits from lean implementation.