International currency speculation,market stability and efficiency in the 1920s: A time series approach

Vector autoregressive time-series modelling methodology is applied to the 1920s exchange-rate data for France, Germany, the U.S.A., Belgium, and Holland. A Wald test is found to conclusively reject the hypothesis that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate for all five currencies. Details are given of various external shocks that may have influenced the exchange rates and these are dealt with by a set of dummy variables. The data series exhibit some rapid depreciations and nonstationarities of interest to econometricians and time series analysts.     

Barriers to use of policy-relevant information by decision makers

This paper identifies the major barriers which hinder or prevent the application of policy-relevant information, derived from analytical techniques, to practical decisions by actual decision makers. The focus of the report is on Technology Assessment (TA), as an analytical technique which has not yet received the level of utilization which its practitioners have hoped for. However, TA borrows from the older analytic disciplines of technological forecasting and systems analysis, and is related to others such as cost-benefit analysis. Because of the similarities with these other disciplines, many of the barriers which hinder the application of these older techniques also act as barriers to the greater     

Four strategies for the age of smart services

Most industrial manufacturers realize that the real money isn't in products but in services. Companies such as General Electric and IBM have famously made the transition: A large proportion of their revenues and margins come from providing value-added services to customers. But other companies attempting to do the same might miss the boat. It is not enough, the authors say, just to provide services. Businesses must now provide "smart services"--building intelligence (awareness and connectivity) into the products themselves. Citing examples such as Heidelberger Druckmaschinen's Internet-connected printing presses and Eaton Electrical's home-monitoring service, the authors demonstrate how a product that can report its status back to its maker represents an opportunity for the manufacturer to cultivate richer, longer-term relationships with customers. Four business models will emerge in this new, networked world. If you go it alone, it may be as an embedded innovator- that is, your networked product sends back information that can help you optimize service delivery, eliminate waste and inefficiency, and raise service margins. Or, you may pursue a more aggressive solutionist business model- that is, you position your networked product as a "complete solution provider," able to deliver a broader scope of high-value services than those provided by the embedded innovator's product. In the case of a system that aggregates and processes data from multiple products in a building or home, you may be either an aggregator or a synergist, partnering with others to pursue a smart-services opportunity. An aggregator's product is the hub, collecting and processing usage information- and creating a high-value body of data. A synergist's product is the spoke, contributing valuable data or functionality. Woe to the company that takes none of these paths; it'll soon find its former customers locked in--and happily--to other smart service providers.     

Modeling and measuring intraday overreaction of stock prices

We introduce a model for stock prices consisting of a fundamental price process and a news impact curve, which allows for either overreaction, underreaction, or correct response to changes of the fundamental value. We further develop statistics based on OHLC data, which separately measure upside and downside overreaction. The distribution of these statistics under the hypothesis of correct response and fundamental prices following Brownian motions is used to derive tests for upside and downside overreaction. We show that more realistic and frequently used fundamental price processes with correct response leave the distribution of the test statistics widely unaffected or lead to conservative tests. Empirical application to different stock markets provides strong evidence for intraday overreaction, particularly to bad news. The economic significance of the discrimination induced by the proposed statistics is further illustrated by analyzing the performance of a simple buy on bad news strategy.