What Drives the Responsiveness of the Budget Balance to the Business Cycle in EU Countries?

Intereconomics - The European Commission methodology for computing the cyclically adjusted government budget balance provides a robust measurement of the fiscal position of the Member States. The...     

The South African Financial Cycle and its Relation to Household Deleveraging

This paper considers the extent to which South African households have deleveraged, since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008. We extend the official South African Reserve Bank business cycle methodology to date financial cycles, from which we identify the peaks and troughs of the South African financial cycle going back to 1966. Our composite financial cycle index peaks in April 1974, January 1984 and May 2007; it has bottomed out in July 1979 and February 1999. Thus, we still await the trough. We further compare and contrast the deleveraging process in the current downward phase to the experiences from previous financial cycles. We find that the average period of the financial cycle in South Africa is much longer (approximately 17.3 years) than that of the business cycle (approximately 5.8 years), and that deleveraging has not yet matched the degree of deleveraging seen in previous downward phases. Our results suggest that further deleveraging is necessary, before we can expect to turn the financial corner.     

Made in the World? Global Value Chains in the Midst of Rising Protectionism

Review of Industrial Organization - In the last decade, the concept of ‘global value chain’ (GVC) has become popular to describe the way firms fragment production into different stages...     

Joint tests of contagion with applications

Joint tests of contagion are derived which are designed to have power where contagion operates simultaneously through coskewness, cokurtosis and covolatility. Finite sample properties of the new tests are evaluated and compared with existing tests of contagion that focus on a single channel. Applying the tests to daily euro zone equity returns from 2005 to 2014 shows that contagion operated mainly through higher order moment channels during the GFC and the European debt crisis, which were not necessarily detected by traditional tests based on correlations. The empirical results have important implications for pricing risk and constructing well diversified portfolios.     

Fighting vacation rental tax evasion through warnings to potential evaders

This paper uses differences-in-differences to analyze the effectiveness of messages sent by the Spanish Tax Agency to deter tax evasion by owners of vacation rentals. The results suggest that these messages were effective in the aggregate, as there was an increase both in the declared amount of such income (6–8.5%, depending on the line item under which it is declared) and in the number of filers (29.7–64.2%), and this effectiveness became more marked over time. Notably, there was more response to the intervention from the self-employed. However, in some collectives, the intervention produced the opposite of the intended effect.     

Measurement of Variables Involved in the Design of a Training Study: Practical Experience Undertaken in a Sports Organisation

This article describes the process for preparing a survey, which will be used to measure relevant variables, which are involved in a study of training needs in a Spanish sports organisation. The variables which have been considered are: problems and difficulties in carrying work of specific positions; “strong points” in carrying out this work; usefulness of the training received in facing and solving the above-mentioned problems and difficulties; usefulness of the training received in acquiring and strengthening these “strong points” in carrying out work; opinion and suggestions with respect to future training. Due to the applied nature of the study, a data collection methodology was designed which was based on interviews and group discussions with a representative sample of workers. Finally, the predictive capacity of perception, which workers have, of their motivation at work was clearly shown in order to then identify different attitude and conduct patterns.     

Data driven rank test for the change point problem

Data driven test procedure for detection of change is introduced and its properties are studied. The new solution is max-type statistic related to data-driven rank tests for two-sample subproblems. Simulations show that the new test possesses high and stable power. The test is consistent at essentially any alternative. Asymptotic null distribution of the test is derived. The work of the first two authors has been partially supported by the grants GAČR 201/06/0186 and MSM 02160839.     

Key Sectors,Industrial Clustering and Multivariate Outliers

In this paper a reflection is made on the problems that can arise in key sector analysis and industrial clustering, due to the usual presence of outliers when using multidimensional data related to the sectors in an input–output table. Multidimensional outliers are considered as being not only linked to the low number of clusters usually observed in this kind of study, but probably causing invalid results in most of the works involving multivariate statistical techniques, such as cluster and factor analysis. Actually, by comparing the key sectors of the Spanish economy obtained in Díaz et al. (2006) Díaz, B., Moniche, L. and Morillas, A. 2006. A fuzzy clustering approach to the key sectors of the Spanish economy. Economic Systems Research, 18: 299–318. [Taylor & Francis Online] [Google Scholar] to the ones we get taking into account the problem the outliers pose, one can realize they greatly distort the results. On the other hand, it is shown that identification of outliers can be considered as a good and new procedure to help select the most important sectors in an economy.