Uncertainty on survival probabilities and solvency capital requirement: application to long-term care insurance

In this paper, we focus on uncertainty issues on disabled lives survival probabilities of LTC insurance policyholders and its consequences on solvency capital requirement. Among the risks affecting long-term care portfolios, special attention is addressed to the table risk, i.e. the risk of unanticipated aggregate mortality, arising from the uncertainty in modeling LTC claimants survival law. The table risk can be thought as the risk of systematic deviations referring not only to a parameter risk but, as well, to any other sources leading to a misinterpretation of the life table resulting for example from an evolution of medical techniques or a change in rules of acceptance. In fine, the idea is to introduce the risk of systematic deviations arising from the uncertainty on the disabled lives death probabilities directly. We analyze the consequences of an error of appreciation on the disabled lives survival probabilities in terms of level of reserves and describe a framework in an Own Risk and Solvency Assessment perspective to measure the gap between the risk profile from the standard formula to the risk analysis specific to the organism.     

The impact of culture on national prevalence rates of social and commercial entrepreneurship

This cross-cultural study empirically investigates the cultural determinants of macro-level social and commercial entrepreneurship from a new institutional theory perspective. This study investigates if cultural shifts in cultural values, operationalized through the World Values Survey (WVS), impact the prevalence rates of social and commercial entrepreneurship at the national level. Social and commercial entrepreneurship rates are drawn from the 2009 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) and aggregated for 53 countries in this cross-sectional analysis using multivariate regression. Findings indicate that traditional societal values positively impact commercial entrepreneurship prevalence rates, but negatively impact social entrepreneurship rates. Furthermore, self-expression societal values positively impact social entrepreneurship prevalence rates.     

Determinants of knowledge-based entrepreneurship: an exploratory approach

We intend to further the research related to the factors that determine successful entrepreneurial endeavours by academic researchers, and thus put forth an exploratory model of Knowledge-Based Entrepreneurship (KBE). Given the lack of extant adequate indicators, a new scale was developed based on the most frequently cited constructs in the literature. A sample of 1,401 researchers from Portuguese universities was administered a questionnaire and the data collected permitted a validation with regards to the psychometric properties of the questionnaire, to see its applicability to the study. The findings suggest that the absence of a patenting history or start-up portfolio act as significant barriers to academic entrepreneurship. However, when the institutional strategy is to increase patenting and spin-off activities, the university should begin investing in creating a networking environment capable of reinforcing the researchers’ Social Capital. Observing the example of successful entrepreneurs motivates other researchers to consider the possibility of developing their own ventures. The Structural Equations Modelling (SEM) approach allowed for us to identify and measure the non-linear relationships that shape the core of KBE and influence the attainment of measurable outcomes aimed at encouraging entrepreneurship. A relatively high share of the variance of the dependent variables is explained by the model, ensuring their representativeness and contributing to the state-of-art of the knowledge in this research field.     

The Middle Way: The National Catholic Rural Life Conference and Rural Issues in the 20th and 21st Centuries

This article explains how the National Catholic Rural Life Conference (NCRLC), from its founding in 1923 to the present, applied basic Catholic principles in response to a succession of changes in American rural society. In doing so, it proposed a middle way between capitalism and socialism and between the Democratic and Republican parties. In the 1920s, the Reverend Edwin V. O'Hara founded the NCRLC mainly to bolster the demographically weak rural Church. In the 1930s, the NCRLC turned to economic concerns in response to the Great Depression. It supported many New Deal programs that helped farmers as well as cooperatives and a “back‐to‐the‐land” movement. The Conference consistently supported the family farm as the basic institution of a morally and economically sound rural society. In the 1940s and 1950s, the Conference entered the realm of international affairs under Monsignor Luigi G. Ligutti and addressed problems of world hunger, land reform, and underdeveloped countries. Under Monsignor Edward W. O'Rourke, who became director in 1960, the NCRLC joined in the movement for social justice and campaigned for the rights of the rural poor and migrant farm workers. Starting around 1970, the Conference became increasingly interested in environmental and energy issues. The NCRLC is in harmony with the 21^st‐century pope, Francis, on rural and ecological issues.     

Examining the Patterns of Goodwill Impairments in Europe and the US

We examine the patterns of goodwill impairments in Europe and in the US over the period from 2006 to 2015, for a sample of more than 35,000 firm-year observations. We define the timeliness of goodwill impairments as the frequency of accounting impairments conditional to indications of economic impairments. We measure indications of economic impairment with three metrics: equity market value minus equity book value less than goodwill, market-to-book smaller than one and negative earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). Our research strategy leads us to draw very different conclusions than those in the recent EFRAG (2016) study. While median levels of goodwill on the books between US and European firms are relatively similar, we find several indications that US firms recognise timelier impairments, at least during 2008 and 2009, that is, the early years of the financial crisis. We further document that US impairers write down a much greater percentage of their beginning balance of goodwill than European impairers. During the financial crisis, the median level of impairment by US firms was 63% of opening goodwill in 2008 and 40% in 2009, whereas median European write-downs were only 6% and 7% of opening goodwill, respectively. Even though European firms are more likely to impair over multiple years, the cumulative impairments never come close to the level of US firms, be it in a single year or cumulative over multiple years. We also find that the frequency of accounting impairment is small compared to the number of firms presenting evidence of economic impairment: only 20–25% of firms recognise impairments depending on the measure of economic impairment. This has often been interpreted by academics as a sign of untimely write-offs. Accounting differences between US Generally Accepted Accounting Principles and International Financial Reporting Standards are unlikely to explain our results. One caveat of our analysis is that it does not allow us to draw conclusions on whether the observed differences between US and European firms are driven by differences in conditional conservatism and/or big bath accounting practices.     

Testing Temporal Reliability and Carry-over Effect: The Role of Correlated Responses in Test-retest Reliability Studies

Test-retest studies help establish the reliability of contingent valuation (CV) responses but must confront the problem that the initial response may influence subsequent responses, and thus weaken conclusions. We develop a model that tests the influence of heterogeneous preferences and previous responses. By estimating a model of sportfishing, we show that correlation between answers to a CV question is induced by heterogeneous preferences.