Combining filter design with model-based filtering (with an application to business-cycle estimation)

Filters used to estimate unobserved components in time series are often designed on a priori grounds, so as to capture the frequencies associated with the component. A limitation of these filters is that they may yield spurious results. The danger can be avoided if the so-called ARIMA-model-based (AMB) procedure is used to derive the filter. However, parsimony of ARIMA models typically implies little resolution in terms of the detection of hidden components. It would be desirable to combine a higher resolution with consistency of the structure of the observed series.We show first that for a large class of a priori designed filters, an AMB interpretation is always possible. Using this result, proper convolution of AMB filters can produce richer decompositions of the series that incorporate a priori desired features of the components and fully respect the ARIMA model for the observed series (hence no additional parameter needs to be estimated).The procedure is discussed in detail in the context of business-cycle estimation by means of the Hodrick-Prescott filter applied to a seasonally adjusted series or a trend–cycle component.     

The intergenerational transmission of education and equality of educational opportunity in East and West Germany

Socialist societies often emphasized the abolition of traditional social classes. To achieve this objective, educational opportunities were at times ‘actively managed’ and allocated to children of less educated parents. What happened to these patterns after the demise of socialist rule in Eastern Europe? We study the development of educational mobility after the fall of the iron curtain in East Germany and compare the relevance of parental educational background for secondary schooling in East and West Germany. Based on the data from the German Mikrozensus we find that educational mobility is lower in East than in West Germany and that it has been falling in East Germany after unification. While the educational advantage of girls declined over time, having many siblings presents a more substantial disadvantage in East than in West Germany.     

Participants' values and incentive plans

Incentive plans are designed to motivate participants to pursue what is valued by an organization. This article discusses how values may influence the design of incentive plans and the success of their implementation. In situations where the incentive plan fits participants' values, the authors predict a process of mutual reinforcement. When values and incentives collide, they propose two possible yet conflicting outcomes: the “carrot effect” and the “snubbed carrot effect.” They conclude by addressing the implications of fit and misfit for research and practice. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The timing of retirement — New evidence from Swiss female workers

We investigate the responsiveness of individual retirement decisions to changes in financial incentives. A reform increased women's normal retirement age (NRA) in two steps from age 62 to age 63 first and then to age 64. At the same time retirement at the previous NRA became possible at a benefit discount. Since the reform affected specific birth cohorts we can identify causal effects. We find strong and robust behavioral effects of changes in financial retirement incentives. A permanent reduction of retirement benefits by 3.4% induces a decline in the age-specific annual retirement probability by over 50%. The response to changes in financial retirement benefits varies with educational background: those with low education respond most strongly to an increase in the price of leisure.     

Measuring the cyclicality of labour market flows using individual transitions

We investigate whether the choice of a business cycle measure affects estimates of the cyclicality of labour market flows. We exploit precise administrative data on individual labour market transitions and study the association of alternative business cycle measures with individual transitions between employment and unemployment. We find indeed substantial heterogeneities across business cycle indicators that may have affected the results of prior studies on labour market transitions.     

Remittances and income diversification in Bolivia’s rural sector

This article examines the role of remittances in income diversification strategies in Bolivia’s rural sector. Remittances can be consumed or invested by the recipient. As an investment, funds can be used for farming or to finance other nonfarm productions. In this article, we use a large and nationally representative survey to estimate the effect that remittances have on the probability of producing income from nonfarm activities (diversification) by using a bivariate probit model. Our evidence shows that remittances increase the probability that a rural family engages in nonfarm activities, at least in some regions of Bolivia. We also find evidence that the sender’s decision to remit and the recipient’s decision to diversify may be jointly determined. As such, this suggests that remittances may serve as a mechanism to overcome localized failures in Bolivia’s capital markets.     

What drives the reversal of the gender education gap? Evidence from Germany

We study the mechanisms that are associated with the gender education gap and its reversal in Germany. We focus on three outcomes, graduation from upper secondary school, any tertiary education and tertiary degree. Neither individual and family background nor labour market characteristics appear to be strongly associated with the gender education gap. There is some evidence that the gender gap in upper secondary education reflects the rising share of single parent households which impacts boys’ attainment more than girls’. The gender education gap in tertiary education is correlated with the development of class sizes and social norms.     

A New Control Variate Estimator for an Asian Option

There exist several estimators for valuing the Asian option on the arithmetic mean. Among all variance reduction estimators, the one with the control variate derived from the geometric mean has been shown by Boyle et al. (1997) to perform best so far. In this paper, a new improved control variate estimator for this type of Asian option is proposed and investigated. Simulation results confirm that it does perform better than the control variate derived from the geometric mean. The improvement becomes more significant as the volatility increases and/or as the time to expiration lengthens.     

Employment effects of payroll taxes - an empirical test for Germany

This study tests to what degree the incidence of payroll taxes in Germany is on employment and whether in consequence payroll taxes, in particular social insurance contributions, are the culprit behind the growing unemployment problem. Using industry level data for 18 years (1977–1994) a system of five dynamic factor demand equations is estimated. Various simulations indicate that the employment effects of payroll taxes are minimal.