'Technology foresight towards 2020 in China': the practice and its impacts

Technology foresight has attracted increasing attention from government and academia as well as industry since the 1990s. However, the impact of technology foresight on national strategic decision-making varies from country to country. This paper aims to introduce the 'Technology Foresight towards 2020' exercise in China, which has been conducted by a research group in the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The paper consists of five parts: (1) introduction; (2) the framework for technology foresight towards 2020 in China; (3) the methodology including scenario building for identifying technology demands and the method for processing and analysing the data from a Delphi survey; (4) the major results of a Delphi survey in the following four research fields: Information technology, Biotechnology, Energy technology, Material science and technology; and (5) the impact of the research on decision-making concerning science and technology development in China.     

新形势下图书馆员继续教育的现状及对策

由于现代科学技术在图书馆行业的运用,图书馆事业发生了从量到质的蜕变,而图书馆员整体素质却不尽如人意,不能很好的适应知识经济时代的要求。所以必须加强图书馆员继续教育。文章在分析我国图书馆员继续教育现状和存在问题的基础上,提出了完善保障体系、健全监督机制、建立管理考核激励机制、发挥行业协会学会作用、保证经费时间、树立学习意识、灵活继续教育方式方法等对策。     

如何提高学生学习实变函数与泛函分析的兴趣

本文分析了实变函数与泛函分析课程的特点,提出一些提高教学效果的思路与方法,用于激发学生学习的兴趣,使得抽象难教的实变函数与泛函分析课程能够让学生易于接受。     

技术与霸权兴衰的关系——国家与市场逻辑的博弈

以技术为主要解释变量,可以从国家逻辑和市场逻辑互动的角度分析技术与霸权兴衰之间的关系。市场寻求财富,国家寻求权力。国家逻辑与市场逻辑之间存在矛盾互动,既有张力也有统一。两种逻辑之间的张力出现于两种情况:其一,技术周期更迭且新技术研发滞后。其二,霸权国比较权力优势下降,安全威胁感上升。为了护持霸权,主导国会基于国家逻辑"校正"市场逻辑。然而,"天平重心"偏向哪种逻辑并不必然决定霸权兴衰的结果。未来高科技领域的竞争会越来越激烈,各国会更加强调加强自主研发能力的重要性。人工智能等新技术将带来诸多新挑战,甚至可能重塑世界格局。大国之间的冲突并无益于问题的解决,只有诉诸国际交流与合作,各国才能共同应对挑战并共享发展与繁荣。     

高新技术企业科技保险购买意愿影响因素研究——基于广州市274家高新技术企业的调查

基于有限理性假说，构建高新技术企业科技保险购买意愿影响因素分析框架，运用Probit模型对广州市274家高新技术企业调查问卷数据进行回归分析。实证结果表明，管理者受教育程度、风险态度，企业类型、注册资金、信用，企业风险认知、对科技保险政策的了解程度、对保险保障水平的认知，以及行业竞争程度、政府支持本行业的满意度、是否参加行业协会等因素对企业科技保险购买意愿具有显著影响。此外，对当前高新技术企业科技保险参保率低的原因作出解释，为相关部门制定政策提供依据。政府应从增强企业风险识别和评估能力、提高保险保障水平、丰富保险产品品种和发挥保险融资功能等方面入手，进一步推动科技保险发展。     

电磁离合器异常损坏分析及对策

电磁离合器故障具有难于发现,同时故障处理难度很高的特点。本文通过对于电磁离合器故障主要表现-内齿摩擦片损坏的分析,提出了离合器内齿摩擦片损坏的主要原因,制定了一套完整的离合器损坏的预防措施,大大减小了现场离合器故障时间。     

Economic evaluation of olmesartan/amlodipine fixed-dose combination for hypertension treatment in China

Abstract

Objectives: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of olmesartan/amlodipine fixed-dose combination vs olmesartan and amlodipine free combination, amlodipine single drug, and valsartan/amlodipine fixed-dose combination in the treatment of hypertensive patients from payer perspective in China.

Methods: A Markov model was constructed, which included five health states of hypertensive patients who are aged 35–84?years at baseline and free of cardiovascular disease. Clinical data were obtained from a network meta-analysis. Epidemiology data, adverse events (AEs), cost, and utility data were obtained from the literature. The cost associated with AEs was estimated based on the cost of same symptoms of hypertensive patients in an electric medical record database. The model projected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, total costs per patient in a 20-year time horizon, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Probability sensitivity analyses (PSA) and one-way sensitivity analyses were conducted for the main parameters to test the robustness of the model.

Results: Compared to olmesartan and amlodipine free combination, amlodipine, and valsartan/amlodipine fixed-dose combination, treatment with olmesartan/amlodipine fixed-dose combination led to fewer CVD events and deaths; resulted in an incremental cost of ¥?5,439 ($?791.36), ¥6,530 ($950.09), and ¥?1,019 ($?148.26) and gained additional QALYs of 0.052, 0.094, and 0.037 per patient, respectively. Compared with olmesartan and amlodipine free combination and valsartan/amlodipine fixed-dose combination, olmesartan/amlodipine fixed-dose combination was dominant. Compared with amlodipine alone, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were below the WHO recommended cost-effectiveness threshold, indicating the olmesartan/amlodipine fixed-dose combination was a cost-effective option for hypertensive patients in China. The 10-years’ time horizon scenario analysis showed similar results to the 20-years’ time horizon. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis and one-way sensitivity analyses showed the robustness of the model results.

Conclusions: Olmesartan/amlodipine fixed-dose combination confers better health outcomes and costs less compared with olmesartan and amlodipine free combination and valsartan/amlodipine fixed-dose combination, and is cost-effective compared to amlodipine for hypertension treatment in China.     

电子商务环境下实施共享服务中心的风险管理

电子商务的发展,推动了企业朝超越国界、地理范围地迅速扩张,使企业的规模越来越大,管理也越来越困难。在这种背景下,共享服务中心这种新的管理模式应运而生。但调查表明,在电子商务环境下,近一半的共享服务中心未实现预期的收益,甚至完全失败。本文详细地分析了电子商务环境下实施共享服务中心的主要风险因素,并提出了相应的对策,为成功实施共享服务中心,制定正确策略提供参考依据。     

日本住区建设的现状和发展趋势

日本人口密度是中国的2．48倍，人均资源和能源的占有量比中国还贫乏，可是通过战后60年的发展，日本的住区建设已居于世界先进水平的行列，这与日本政府的政策引导和重视住宅产业化密不可分，从而对我国目前住宅业的快速发展提供了很好的借鉴。     

钢管拱肋微膨砼压注技术

结合全桥的施工组织和方案,以及设计图纸的要求,介绍了主拱肋砼的压注工艺和方法,包括配合比的设计以及机械设备的准备。