Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies

Chris Attfield, Michaela Glod and Jessica James suggest an approach to optimize hedging decisions for foreign exchange investments.     

浅谈加强施工现场签证的管理

施工阶段如何有效进行施工现场签证的价格控制,是造价控制的重要环节。通过较长时间的工程造价结算审核工作的经历,发现在现场签证中存在许多问题,并在对这些问题作了归纳的基础上,提出了如何做好施工现场签证审计工作的一些具体措施。     

政府补贴有利于企业创新效率提升吗 ——基于门槛模型的实证检验

选取我国2015-2017年沪深A股上市企业数据，在考察政府补贴对企业创新效率影响的基础上，构建面板门槛模型，探讨政府补贴对企业创新效率的门槛效应，并依据企业产权、所属行业和所在地区异质性进行分组检验。研究发现：①政府补贴对企业创新效率存在显著抑制作用；②政府补贴对企业创新效率的影响存在明显的双重门槛效应，且当政府补贴力度介于0~0.000 5之间时，补贴效果最优；③基于企业产权、所属行业和所在地区的异质性分组检验发现，政府补贴仍对企业创新效率存在抑制作用，但门槛效应差异较大。     

税率变动对财政收入的影响——基于中国经验的实证研究

对于税率与财政收入研究是现在经济学界的一大热点问题。其主要是由于近年来,减税风波几乎卷席全球。在美国次贷危机的影响下,越来越多的国家正在蕴量或已经宣布减税。作者通过对中国、美国、中国台湾地区的税率与财政收入的实证研究,发现了一条包括阿瑟.拉弗(1974)曲线的M曲线。对于这条曲的发现,为大多数国家的调整税率,提供了一个新的思路。     

Cost analysis for different sequential treatment regimens for metastatic renal cell carcinoma in China

Abstract

Purpose: Targeted therapies, including sunitinib, sorafenib, axitinib, and everolimus, have recently become the mainstay for the treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). The objective of this study was to estimate the costs of sequential treatment regimens for mRCC and associated adverse events (AEs) from the Chinese payers’ perspective.

Methods: Key inputs included in the calculation were patient population, dosing information, incidence rates and associated costs of Grade 3/4 AEs, treatment costs (including drug discount programs), and patients’ progression-free survival (PFS) as a proxy for length of treatment. To calculate PFS, this study identified pivotal clinical trials and generated a reconstructed individual patient data set from the published Kaplan-Meier survival curves. The median PFS from the pooled estimates were used in the calculation. In the base-case scenario, sunitinib was used as first line and the other three therapies were used as second line. Sensitivity analyses were conducted where (1) sorafenib was used as first line, or (2) a third-line therapy was added to the base-case scenario.

Results: In the base case, the cost per patient per treatment month (PPPM) cost was the lowest for sunitinib?+?axitinib among all sequential regimens (¥14,898) and was the highest for sunitinib?+?sorafenib (¥20,103). If sorafenib is used as first line, everolimus had lower per patient per months (PPPM) cost than axitinib (¥17,046 vs ¥23,337), but also had shorter PFS (13.5 months vs 15 months). Second sensitivity analysis with an additional third-line therapy showed consistent results with the base-case scenario; axitinib as second line was the least costly.

Conclusions: This study demonstrates that, for mRCC sequential treatment, sunitinib followed by axitinib generates the highest cost savings from the Chinese payers’ perspective. Future studies are warranted to examine the cost-effectiveness of various mRCC treatment regimens in Chinese populations.     

Assessing misspecified asset pricing models with empirical likelihood estimators

Hansen and Jagannathan (1997) compare misspecified asset pricing models based on least-square projections on a family of admissible stochastic discount factors. We extend their fundamental contribution by considering Minimum Discrepancy projections where misspecification is measured by a family of convex functions that take into account higher moments of asset returns. The Minimum Discrepancy problems are solved on dual spaces producing a family of estimators that captures the least-square problem as a particular case. We derive the asymptotic distributions of the estimators for the Cressie–Read family of discrepancies, and illustrate their use with an assessment of the Consumption Asset Pricing Model.     

煤层注水在防治煤与瓦斯突出、降尘方面的探讨

阐述了煤层注水消突及注水治理瓦斯、煤尘的技术原理。通过煤层注水消突及减尘,消除了瓦斯超限,降低了瓦斯涌出量;改善了井下作业环境,降低了工人的劳动强度。     

The moral significance of gestures

The concept of the gesture is explored in relationship with its moral significance rather than, for example, its aesthetic significance. It is argued that the concept can be used in order to make clear how morality relates to the body. This is not to suggest that gestures can be neatly defined. On the contrary, they always seem to be ambivalent and somewhat nebular. However, it will be shown that some of their significance might well be related to popular concepts such as ‘transparency’, ‘authenticity’, ‘integrity’ and ‘responsibility’. In order to make this clear, the role of some particular gestures in politics and organizational life, most notably ‘apology’ and ‘trust’, will be discussed throughout the paper.     

对我国西部地区房地产业发展的冷思考

在世纪之交，党中央根据邓小平同志“两个大局”的战略构想，作出了实施西部大开发的重大战略决策，为西部地区的经济发展带来了新的重大机遇。近5年来，西部12个省市区纷纷采取有效的政策措施，积极改善服务环境，抢抓机遇，加快发展，GDF平均增长速度达到10％，全社会固定资产投资年均增长20％左右，发展的步伐明显加快，使得与全国的相对差距有所缩小。