Challenges for the Chilean economy under cyclical shocks, 1999–2016

A brief summary of the evolution of economic policies and growth in Chile since 1973 is presented, distinguishing between four periods: 1973–89 with average growth of 2.9 percent, 1990–98 with 7.1 percent (notably above the 3.2 percent Latin American average), 1999–2013 with 3.9 percent, and 2014–16 with 1.9 percent, explaining the main forces underlying these sharp differences. Analysis focuses on the fiscal and external disequilibrium associated with the fiscal treatment of the copper price and the adoption of a free exchange rate since 1999. Subsequently, the focus is on the macroeconomic situation in 2013 and five sources of accumulated disequilibria that suggested a high probability of significant deceleration of the economy. The article ends with a discussion of the actual deceleration in more recent years, converging with the negative average outcome of the region, and concludes that worsening economic performance has been associated mainly with the shift from the coherent countercyclical policies of the 1990s to the procyclical opening of the capital account, liberalization of the exchange rate, and adoption of sharp inflation targeting overcoming other relevant macroeconomic targets since then.     

Propensity to firm creation: empirical research using structural equations

The identification of the entrepreneurs’ characteristics and the knowledge of the entrepreneurial profile of university students have been assuming a growing importance in the development of educational programs directed towards the entrepreneurship and start-up processes. This study aims to identify the factors that most contribute for the intention to start up a business. The research also tries to identify the profile of a potential entrepreneur student concerning several characteristics: personal attributes, family, demographic variables and motivations. Research findings include the idea that entrepreneurship education is the most relevant factor in what concerns the propensity to business creation. On the other side, personal characteristics have an important role in shaping motivation to start-up a business and perceived hurdles have a negative impact in the intention to start-up. The results may be relevant when developing an adequate educational program directed to the entrepreneurship education and start-up processes.     

FISCAL POLICY AND ASSET PRICES

We analyse the impact of fiscal policy on asset prices using a panel vector auto‐regressive (PVAR) approach and quarterly data for ten industrialized countries. We find that positive fiscal shocks lead to a temporary fall in stock prices and a gradual and persistent decrease in housing prices. The empirical findings also point to: (i) a contractionary effect of fiscal policy on output in line with the existence of crowding‐out effects and the deterioration of credit conditions; (ii) a weakening of the effectiveness of fiscal policy in recent times; (iii) a more persistent response of asset prices for countries with a lower degree of openness; (iv) a larger impact of fiscal policy on asset prices for small countries; (v) a close link between the responsiveness of asset prices to fiscal policy and the government’s size; (vi) an increase of the sensitivity of asset prices to fiscal policy shocks following the process of financial deregulation and mortgage liberalization; and (vii) significant fiscal multiplier effects in the context of severe housing busts. Finally, the evidence suggests that changes in equity prices may help governments towards consolidation of public finances.     

A Negotiation Model for Inducing Higher Service in a Distribution Channel

This paper analyzes, in the context of negotiation, the problem of coordination and conflict resolution between the manufacturer (Seller) and the retailers (Buyers) for a two-tier inventory system. The retailers capture demand (from customers) and therefore are responsible for the level of service offered by the system. The larger the inventory that a retailer has of a particular product, the lower the probability of running out of stock and therefore, avoid the possibility of a lost sale for the manufacturer. A conflict arises (and therefore the negotiation process starts) when the manufacturer wants the retailer to increase the level of service while retailers are satisfied with the status quo. Using the Nash bargaining solution, we develop a theoretical framework that incorporates behavioral dimensions and predicts the outcome of “sharing” the profit. The results indicate the advantage of developing long term relationships among the members of the distribution channel to minimize the uncertainty and therefore the source of conflict.