Information flows and crashes in dynamic social networks

We develop a dynamic model of information transmission and aggregation in social networks in which continued membership in the network is contingent on the accuracy of opinions. Agents have opinions about a state of the world and form links to others in a directed fashion probabilistically. Agents update their opinions by averaging those of their connections, weighted by how long their connections have been in the system. Agents survive or die based on how far their opinions are from the true state. In contrast to the results in the extant literature on DeGroot learning, we show through simulations that for some parameterizations the model cycles stochastically between periods of high connectivity, in which agents arrive at a consensus opinion close to the state, and periods of low connectivity, in which agents’ opinions are widely dispersed.

     

PUBLIC POLICY TOWARDS PRIVATE PENSIONS

This paper reviews and evaluates public policy towards private pensions which has developed in the U.S. over the past 60 years. It is shown that research results reported in the literature are not sufficiently conclusive to permit resolution of all, or even the most important, efficiency questions that surround pension policy. Given available information, a series of policy recommendations are made to either retain or alter current federal policy towards pensions. Unanswered research questions that prevent a more definitive set of conclusions are identified and discussed     

Money-income causality: Results for six countries

In this paper we attempt to ascertain multivariate money-income causality. Previous studies using a bivariate framework likely suffer from bias as a result of omitted variables. A framework is developed where both U.S. money and domestic money in an open, nonreserve currency country may influence that country's income. Reverse causation from income to domestic money is also possible. We use data from six countries to test the model. Our results suggest that both U.S. and domestic money stocks are important determinants of income. Thus, bias exists in previous studies. However, our results vary by country and are sensitive to the measure of money included which suggests that important variables may still be omitted.     

Von Neumann-Morgenstern solution social choice functions: An impossibility theorem

Recent literature has made significant progress in characterizing those social choice functions that can arise, or be “implemented,” as the equilibria of an underlying noncooperative game. This paper studies the implementability of social choice functions via cooperative games. Specifically, we show that if a social choice function arises, in each environment, as a Von Neumann-Morgenstern solution of an underlying cooperative game, whose dominance structure is monotonic and neutral, then the social choice function is essentially oligarchic, in exactly the same sense that “core” selecting choice functions are oligarchic.     

THE TREATMENT OF PENSIONS AND INSURANCE IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTS*

In the course of the nearly two decades since the revised SNA was developed, the role of pensions and insurance in the developed western economies has been significantly altered. The United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA) is not fully consistent in its treatment of pension and insurance transactions. This paper examines whether, in view of the changed institutional context, a modification of the SNA treatment of this complex of flows would be desirable. It investigates the impact on household income and saving of adopting a somewhat more consistent transactor/transaction approach for all pension and insurance transactions. Four main topics are covered: (1) social security, (2) private pensions, (3) life insurance, and (4) casualty insurance. Each is considered in terms of the treatment of contributions, the treatment of benefits, and the handling of reserves and the income generated by them. The same sorts of problem arise in all four cases.     

ECONOMIC BURDENS OF MARITAL DISRUPTIONS: A COMPARISON OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

Longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the German Socio-Economic Panel are used to show that women and children are worse off following a marital split than are men in both the United States and Germany. The size of the difference is sensitive to the equivalence scale used, but despite its far more extensive tax and transfer system the disparate impact of divorce or separation on women and children persisted in Germany at a level at least as high as in the United States.     

Subjective evaluations of n-person games

Using an axiomatization of subjective expected utility due to Fishburn, we characterize a class of utility functions over a set of n-person games in characteristic-function form. A probabilistic value is defined as the expectation of some player's marginal contribution with respect to some probability measure on the set of coalitions of other players. We decribe conditions under which a utility function on the set of n-person games is a probabilistic value; we prove as well an analogous result for simple games. We present additional axioms that characterize the semivalues and, in turn, the Shapley and Banzhaf values.