Revelations of a gambler

Knowing that a decision maker maximizes expected utility with respect to some (unknown) utility U and some (unknown) probability P, what can one tell about P by observing his decisions? We discuss this revealed preference question primarily in the simple case of a two-element (H and T) state space, and show that the possible revelations of P_T/P_H are precisely those of the form P_T/P_Hε∪^K_k=1 (γ_k,δ_k), for some algebraic numbers γ_k,δ_k.     

Austria and the Single European Market

The economic consequences—global and on a sectoral level—of the full participation of Austria in the process of economic integration in Europe are assessed with the help of the INFORUM system of interlinked input–output models and the Austrian model in this family, i.e. AUSTRIA IV. The results of two scenarios up to the year 2000 are compared. One scenario is based on the assumption of the full participation of Austria in the process of European integration. The alternative scenario is based on the hypothesis that Austria has to remain in an outsider position. The analysis shows quite relevant positive consequences of full participation by Austria in the process of European integration. Because of compensating forces, the effects on a sectoral level are much more pronounced than those on the global level. The structural implications on output, employment, etc. are quite remarkable.     

Die ökonomische Funktion von Haftungsregeln bei Risikoaversion und Haftpflichtversicherungsmöglichkeiten

Most of the literature on the economic analysis of liability law reduces the economic importance of liability regulations to their prevention or incentive function. This is due to the premise of risk neutral decision behavior or to the assumption of ?costless“ insurance that is very often used in this context. In this paper the case of risk neutrality is discussed briefly. Then the relevance of risk aversion is explained, and results are presented from an analysis which integrates risk averse behavior and employs a more adequate modeling of the insurance supply, such that the risk allocation function of liability rules is given emphasis in addition to the aspect of loss prevention. An important result is that for large numbers of potential victims an ideal solution can be approximated by a negligence rule. This insight is particularly interesting in light of the fact that liability risks which are characterized by large numbers of victims usually are regulated by strict liability.