An analysis of Japanese earnings forecast revisions with application to seasoned equity offerings

Using the bootstrap method, we explore the characteristics of revisions in Japanese earnings forecast data. We find that forecast revisions exhibit a downward trend over time as the actual earnings announcement date approaches, and are serially correlated with three significant lags. Using these characteristics we develop a model to estimate abnormal forecast revisions, and illustrate the model's use with a sample of Japanese companies announcing seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). In contrast to results obtained by studies using American data, our findings indicate significant positive upward revisions when Japanese firms announce an SEO.     

A Comparative Study of the Benefits of Applying Target Cost Contracts Between South Australia and Hong Kong

This article aims to identify and analyze the key benefits of adopting Guaranteed Maximum Price and Target Cost Contracts (GMP/TCC) over and above the traditional lump‐sum contractual arrangement through an empirical questionnaire survey conducted in South Australia and compared with the findings in Hong Kong. The Mann‐Whitney U Test indicated differences in perception between the two groups of respondents on the majority of the identified benefits. The study has provided an in‐depth understanding of the perceived benefits of the GMP/TCC scheme, hence leading to a wider application of those alternative integrated procurement strategies in both regions for reference by the construction community at large.     

A Dynamic Model of Export Competition, Policy Coordination, and Simultaneous Currency Collapse

This paper shows that the "price wars during booms" logic of Rotemberg and Saloner ( American Economic Review , vol. 76, 1986, 390–407) provides an explanation of contagious currency crises. The idea is as follows. When a group of countries relies on exports to a common foreign market, pressures for competitive devaluations arise. In response, competing exporters peg their exchange rates to the currency of their export market. However, it must be in each country's self-interest to adhere to its peg, and a common adverse external shock can make an existing (implicitly) cooperative arrangement unenforceable. Maintaining the arrangement requires a collective devaluation that reduces the unilateral incentive to devalue.     

Bank generic strategies: does Porter's theory apply in an international banking center

This study examines banks' competitive strategies and their relationship with performance in a highly internationalized banking center, Hong Kong. The factor analysis results have, by and large, provided support to Porter's three strategy typology. Nevertheless, the empirical findings from the cluster analysis and the subsequent inter-group comparison of performances have cast doubt on Porter's stuck-in-the-middle proposition by demonstrating that banks adopting a multi-strategic approach did outperform other strategically monotonous rivals. While the stuck-in-the-middle proposition is grounded in the premise of inherent inconsistencies for pursuing more than one generic strategy simultaneously, the resource-based view and the present empirical findings hint at the feasibility for well-resourced banks to combine apparently incompatible value creating activities in a synergistic way to achieve integrated flexibility and consequently, a sustainable multi-strategic position. It is suggested that this feasibility very much depends on a bank's organizing and coordinating capabilities that are developed and refined through managerial commitment, learning and experience, as well as a careful assessment of various organizational activities and its inter-relationships within the entire business system.     

Future Remains Bleak

Chinese government has recently introduced more flexible policies on foreign investment,which can help to partially restore the development of foreign inflows in China but can hardly resume its previous growth speed.Bian Weihong,a senior analyst from the Institute of International Finance of the Bank of China,believed that,given the current conditions,the situation for foreign investment absorption in the second half of the year will still stay complicated.Bian also pointed out that in the previous phase,as the European debt crisis stops deteriorating and the U.S.     

浅论精神分析学说对沈从文创作的影响

弗洛伊德的精神分析学说在20世纪早期盛行于世。这一学说深深地影响了沈从文并成为他诠释“人性”的最好工具。在沈从文的创作及其作品中,这种影响具体地表现在主题和题材的选择、人物形象的塑造和“纪梦”三个方面。     

The 1997 Asian Currency Crisis,Financial Linkages,and the Monetary Policy of Japan

The evidence is examined that excessively liberal monetary policy by the Bank of Japan, before and after the financial collapse of Japan in 1992, may have led other East Asian economies into “over‐borrowing” and speculative investments, prior to the currency crisis in 1997–98. The authors test for cointegration and Granger causality between Japanese money supply M1 and the domestic investment of eight East Asian economies and Australia. US and German money supplies are also used as a benchmark. There is strong evidence that there are long‐ and short‐run causal relationships between the Japanese money supply and the domestic investment of the Asian crisis‐inflicted economies prior to 1997.     

Auditing Standards in China—A Comparative Analysis with Relevant International Standards and Guidelines

The continuing and deepening economic reforms in China have brought many changes both socially and economically to the society. The primary function of auditing in China has begun to shift away from the traditional tax compliance assessment towards the credibility lending to financial statements. The economic reforms and the development of the Accounting Standards for Business Enterprises have necessitated the parallel development of auditing standards in China. While some significant differences exist, the new Chinese auditing standards are, in a number of important aspects, similar to the professional standards promulgated by the International Federation of Accountants. The development of a comprehensive body of standards, auditor independence, the role of certain auditing techniques, and certified public accountant (CPA) population are the major areas that China needs to improve. Opening up the Chinese accounting industry will trigger significant advances in the implementation of Chinese standards and the development of the Chinese accounting profession.     

Are there long-run implications of analyst coverage for IPOs?

Analyst coverage has been cited increasingly as an important attribute in the selection of an underwriter for a firm about to go public. However, it has also been alleged that affiliated analysts provide biased research. In this study, we examine these interrelated issues by examining the long-run performance of IPOs with coverage from their managing underwriters in a 1993–2003 sample. We find that (1) analysts’ research coverage from their managing syndicate is not related to long-run performance; (2) long-run performance is not different for firms that receive all-star analyst coverage; and (3) investors are not systematically worse off for following lead underwriter recommendations.     

Value at risk and conditional extreme value theory via markov regime switching models

This study develops a new conditional extreme value theory‐based (EVT) model that incorporates the Markov regime switching process to forecast extreme risks in the stock markets. The study combines the Markov switching ARCH (SWARCH) model (which uses different sets of parameters for various states to cope with the structural changes for measuring the time‐varying volatility of the return distribution) with the EVT to model the tail distribution of the SWARCH processed residuals. The model is compared with unconditional EVT and conditional EVT‐GARCH models to estimate the extreme losses in three leading stock indices: S&P 500 Index, Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprise Index. The study found that the EVT‐SWARCH model outperformed both the GARCH and SWARCH models in capturing the non‐normality and in providing accurate value‐at‐risk forecasts in the in‐sample and out‐sample tests. The EVTSWARCH model, which exhibits the features of measuring the volatility of a heteroscedastic financial return series and coping with the non‐normality owing to structural changes, can be an alternative measure of the tail risk. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:155–181, 2008