Unintended consequences in demarketing antisocial behaviour: project Bernie

Unintended consequences are recognised as a potential risk for well-intentioned social marketing interventions and as a comparatively under-researched topic in the field. This case study uses an intervention tackling deliberate grassfires to explore the application of social marketing in a novel context, its potential effectiveness in demarketing antisocial behaviours and the potential of such interventions to generate positive and negative unintended consequences. The intervention’s evaluation confirms social marketing’s potential value in tackling ingrained antisocial behaviours within communities. It also revealed unexpected benefits accruing from changes within the target community, within the sponsoring fire service and in the relationship between the two. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of potential unexpected and unplanned consequences for intervention planning, conduct and evaluation.     

Defining management accounting constructs: A methodological note on the risks of conceptual misspecification

This paper stresses the need for a sound conceptual specification of research constructs prior to fitting them to explanatory models. It emphasizes that in addressing the conceptual level of the predictive validity framework [Libby, R., Bloomfield, R., & Nelson, M. (2002). Experimental research in financial accounting. Accounting, Organizations and Society, 27, 775–810], special attention must be paid to two issues: (1) the production of a specific agreed-upon meaning and domain for each construct of interest; and (2) the specification and conceptual justification of the nature and direction of the epistemic relationships between constructs, dimensions and indicators (i.e., reflective vs. formative models; latent vs. emergent models). The paper highlights the importance of both issues especially in the case of practice-defined variables, and it provides guidelines on how to address both aspects of conceptual specification. While the issues raised are pertinent to many research areas, the paper concentrates on the implications for management accounting and control systems (MACS) research, using interactive use of control systems [Simons, R. (1995a). Levers of control. Boston: Harvard Business School Press] to illustrate how researchers should go about specifying meaning and epistemic relationships in MACS research.     

Wage rigidity and capital mobility in an optimizing model of a small open economy

Summary This paper formulates an optimizing model of a small open economy with a representative (immortal) household, a firm and a government. The asset menu consists of domestic currency, non-traded bonds and traded bonds. There is a risk premium on traded bonds, which leads to deviations from perfect capital mobility and uncovered interest parity. Taxes are lump-sum, so that finance by bonds and by taxation are equivalent. The model allows for current-account and wealth dynamics. The model assumes either purchasing power parity or imperfect substitution between home and foreign goods and either labour market equilibrium, nominal wage rigidity or real wage rigidity. The steady-state effects of a fiscal contraction, a monetary disinflation and an increase in the world interest rate are discussed. The transient effects of these policies are analysed with the aid of a multiple shooting algorithm.We thank Gerard Staarink for implementing the multiple shooting algorithm used in section 4 and we thank Professors M. Fase and J. Pen for their constructive comments on a previous version of this paper. The paper is a shortened version of discussion paper No. 168 of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.     

The changing consumer in the Netherlands : Recent changes in environmental variables and their consequences for future consumption and marketing

Changes in many environmental (exogenous) factors during the eighties and early nineties affect marketing management and consumer behaviour in the Netherlands. Some of these factors relate to the effects of the economic recessions in the early eighties and the early nineties. Other factors are autonomous trends in a number of economic, demographic, and cultural factors. These factors determine a “macro marketing mix” for marketing management decisions of companies. In this article, we discuss the changing consumer environment and its impact on production and retailing of consumer goods and services in the Netherlands for the last decade of this century. This information on the Netherlands, as well as on the other nations of the European Community, is relevant for marketers operating in, or considering entering, the Dutch market. For governmental decision makers and scientists this information on future consumption and marketing is relevant for their policy and research.     

Uncertainty and Growth of the Firm

Using data from a survey of 1,097 small and medium-sized non-listed Dutch firms we investigate the relation between growth of the firm and uncertainty. We focus on the impact of sales uncertainty on various types of investment. We find that sales uncertainty, measured by the conditional variance, has a mixed impact on various investment decisions. We include an analysis of the relevance of financial structure and firm size on the growth-uncertainty relation.     

Differences in large and small firm responses to environmental context: strategic implications from a comparative analysis of business formations

Despite growing recognition of some strategic advantages held by small firms, little comparative research has been performed on the advantages and disadvantages accruing to firm size. In order to delineate the differential responses of small and large businesses to their environmental context, we perform a comparative analysis of the impact of industry structural characteristics on the formation of large and small businesses in a large sample of U.S. manufacturing industries from 1977 to 1987. The results suggest that small businesses possess certain resources that allow them to overcome some barriers which create greater difficulties for their larger counterparts, as well as allow small businesses to exploit certain industry opportunities more readily than larger ones. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Distribution of Multifamily Mortgage Originations: What We Know and Why We Care

Three policy-relevant questions about multifamily mortgage originations (MFOs) are addressed. First, what is the annual volume of MFOs? This analysis highlights differences and problems among three publicly available multifamily lending surveys; the 1993 volume is estimated at $30 billion. Second, what is the size distribution of multifamily mortgages? Using kernel density estimation, variation in this distribution among central cities and suburbs, underserved areas, and lender type is examined. Third, what are the primary determinants of the variation in multifamily lending? A relatively simple regression model is estimated to shed light on the variables most highly correlated with multifamily lending. Tract income relative to MSA median income and minority concentrations are shown to be highly correlated with lending volume, but the largest source of variation is the number of multifamily rental units in the tract.     

Testing a Model of Cognitive Budgetary Participation Processes in a Latent Variable Structural Equations Framework

Previous accounting research has suggested that subordinate participation in the budgetary process has two cognitive aspects: (1) participation enhances budget quality, and hence the utility of budgets, by allowing subordinates to introduce private knowledge into the budgetary process, and (2) participation enables subordinates to obtain information that is relevant to performing their jobs. This study tests a model that encompasses both cognitive aspects of budgetary participation. Data were gathered with a questionnaire distributed to managers from a variety of different national origins who were working in many different global locations. The data were analysed with latent variable structural equation modelling, which provides several advantages over more conventional analytic methods generally used in budgetary participation and other behavioural accounting research. The results indicated that participation enhances budget quality and that budget quality, in turn, has a positive effect on budget utility. Participation was also found to have a direct and positive effect on job-relevant information. The results failed to support a proposed indirect effect of participation on job-relevant information through the enhancement of budget quality.     

Economy-wide implications of biofuel production in Zambia

ABSTRACT

Potential biofuel demand in South Africa is estimated to increase to 1550 million litres by 2025 due to mandatory blending rates. Land and water constraints, however, limit the ability for domestic production. Zambia, due to its abundance in land, suitable climate, supportive set of bioenergy incentives and close geographical location to South Africa, has the potential to meet this increase in demand. Using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the macro- and socio-economic impacts of bioethanol production in Zambia from three potential crops: sugarcane, cassava and sweet sorghum. The results show that the development of a single product bioethanol industry has the potential to increase economic growth without negatively affecting overall food security. Further expansion of the industry to multiple products results in larger gains to growth and welfare.