Combination schemes for turning point predictions

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The proposed combination schemes are based on the forecasting performances of a given set of models with the aim to provide better turning point predictions. In particular, we consider predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach for both estimation and prediction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and the Euro area business cycles.     

Leveraging on systemic learning to manage the early phases of product innovation projects

A number of studies have pointed out the importance of the early phases of new product development projects. In fact, these phases (addressed in the literature with different names, such as pre-project activities, concept generation, product planning, idea generation, investigation, product definition) are concerned with a number of critical decisions that have great impact on the performance of product development. Any fault occurring in these early phases in understanding the market needs, in choosing the product architecture and technology and in defining the product specifications would eventually deteriorate the innovation process, since adjustments in later stages imply reworks that are costly and time consuming. Although the relevance of early project phases has been empirically verified in the literature, the mechanisms that allow these phases to be properly managed are still largely unexplored. This paper investigates the articulated and coherent set of methods, organizational mechanisms and behavioural patterns that successful companies adopt to manage concept generation and product planning. Inferences are based on a field research concerning 19 in-depth case studies of Italian and Swedish companies in the vehicles, helicopters and white goods industries. The paper supports findings of other studies concerning the importance of teamworking and communication. However, teamworking emerges as a necessary, but not a sufficient mechanism. Systemic learning from past experiences is the real keystone toward an effective management of the early phases of product development processes.     

Feasible implementation of taxation methods

This paper studies implementation of taxation methods in one-commodity environments in which the incomes of the agents are unknown to the planner. Feasibility out of equilibrium imposes that the mechanism depend on the environment. We present two mechanisms. The first one, which requires complete information, implements every taxation method in Nash, strong and coalition-proof equilibrium. The second, where informational requirements are relaxed, implements a large class of consistent and monotone methods in subgame perfect equilibrium. Neither mechanism employs the off-equilibrium devices used by the general theory. Under fully private information no method is implementable. Received: 12 March 1997 / Accepted: 21 July 1998