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111.
Fabio Bacchini Maria Elena Bontempi Roberto Golinelli Cecilia Jona-Lasinio 《Empirical Economics》2018,54(2):343-378
In this paper, we model the dynamics of business investment taking into account asset-specific characteristics potentially affecting the reactivity of aggregate and disaggregate capital accumulation over the business cycle. We estimate Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) and traditional investment (non-ICT) determinants within a Vector Error Correction Model testing the assumptions of the flexible accelerator and neoclassical model as well as the role of financial constraints and uncertainty. We evaluate our model on Italian data over the period 1980–2012, and we check our results also with Spanish and UK data. Our findings support the assumption that capital is heterogeneous since short- and long-run determinants are significantly different across the assets. Traditional assets experience stock adjustment costs while ICT investment incurs flow adjustment cost. In the short run, liquidity is a key determinant of investment independently of the asset type. In the long run, uncertainty significantly affects ICT. Finally, the results of the counterfactual exercises support the idea that ICT is a key policy variable to foster economic growth. 相似文献
112.
113.
We exploit recently published data to evaluate the long-run evolution of overweight and obesity rates among European economies between 1975 and 2016. We find that overweight rates for both females and males converge in Europe. In particular, the convergence is driven by the nations in the EU. This fact is consistent with food patterns as well as trade, agricultural, and health policies that are common among EU members. Across our model specifications, the steady-state average overweight rate ranges between 60% and 77% for European female individuals and lies above 82% for their male counterparts. Confidence intervals suggest that such gender differences are statistically significant. In the EU, the point estimates of these rates are 62% and 91%, respectively. Obesity prevalence in Europe would reach long-term rates of 39% and 45% for females and males respectively, whereas these rates would be similar in the EU (approximately 28%). 相似文献
114.
Forecasting monthly industrial production in real-time: from single equations to factor-based models
The aim of this paper is to analyze the performance of alternative forecasting methods to predict the index of industrial
production in Italy from 1 to 3 months ahead. We use twelve different models, from simple ARIMA to dynamic factor models exploiting
the timely information of up to 110 short-term indicators, both qualitative and quantitative. This allows to assess the relevance
for the forecasting practice of alternative combinations of types of data (real-time and latest available), estimation methods
and periods. Out-of-sample predictive ability tests stress the relevance of more indicators in disaggregate models over sample
periods covering a complete business cycle (about 7 years in Italy). Our findings downgrade the emphasis on both the estimation
method and data revision issues. In line with the classical “average puzzle”, the use of simple averages of alternative forecasts
often improves the predictive ability of their single components, mainly over short horizons. Finally, selected indicators
and factor-based models always perform significantly better than ARIMA models, suggesting that the short-run indicator signal
always dominates the noise component. On this regard, selected indicators models can further increase the amount of signal
extracted to improve up to 30–40% the short-run predictive ability of factor-based models and to forecast-encompass them. 相似文献
115.
Recent literature has argued that conventional measures of external sustainability - the trade balance and current account - are misleading because they omit capital gains on net foreign asset positions. We adjust the definition of the current account to include the capital gains and discuss how this may affect our thinking about external adjustment and sustainability. We do so in the context of a two-country macro-finance model of Pavlova and Rigobon (2008a) that allows exploration of the interconnections between equilibrium portfolios and external accounts' dynamics. We calibrate the model and find that it generates several testable implications, some of which have already been validated empirically. First, we establish dynamic properties of the capital-gains adjusted current account and show that they are fundamentally different from those of the conventional current account. Second, we find that capital gains have a stabilizing effect on the trade balance and the current account. Finally, we demonstrate that in response to a shock, the conventional and the capital-gains adjusted current accounts may move in opposite directions. 相似文献
116.
Roberto Mazzoleni 《Economics of Innovation and New Technology》2013,22(6):499-515
Although university patenting has increased dramatically over the past three decades, debates persist regarding the broad economic implications of the phenomenon. This article examines the social welfare implications of university patenting in a model of R&D competition in which firms develop innovations on the basis of the disclosure of a university invention. When such disclosure does not preempt the patenting of downstream innovations, university patenting enhances social welfare only if a regime of open access to university inventions is characterized by excessive aggregate R&D from the viewpoint of social welfare. When the university invention disclosure preempts patenting on firms’ innovations, the nature of the open access equilibrium in the R&D market depends on the threat of imitation ex post. Only when the threat of imitation is sufficiently strong firms will not invest in downstream R&D in the open access regime. In this case, university patenting promotes R&D investment and increases social welfare. 相似文献
117.
Francisco Alonso Roberto Blanco Ana Del Río Alicia Sanchis 《European Journal of Finance》2013,19(6):453-474
This paper investigates the presence of liquidity premia in the relative pricing of assets traded on the Spanish government securities market. First, a classification of bonds into four different categories based on their degree of liquidity is proposed. Second, liquidity premia are estimated introducing liquidity parameters in the estimation of the zero-coupon yield curve. Results suggest the existence of a liquidity premium for post-benchmark bonds (both strippable and non-strippable). The size of this premium is relatively small. In the case of pre-benchmark bonds, the lack of liquidity does not seem to be priced. It is also shown that these pricing discrepancies are robust to the impact of taxes on bonds. 相似文献
118.
The management of environmental programmes often involves several stakeholders with diverse, and often conflicting, concerns. This paper proposes a methodology for the assessment of stakeholder preferences regarding a number of objectives of environmental restoration activities, such as the minimization of costs and of the impact on human health and safety. This methodology is based on an analytic/deliberative process that starts with pairwise comparisons of these objectives using questionnaires that the stakeholders complete. This input is used to produce a first set of relative weights using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (the analytic part). This set, as well as possible inconsistencies of the stakeholder assessments, is discussed with the stakeholders to correct inconsistencies and revise the weights (the deliberative part). The stakeholders always have the final word regarding the relative weights. Insights gained from a case study are also presented. The feedback from the stakeholders participating in this exercise was positive. 相似文献
119.
Shadow economy and unemployment rate in USA: is there a structural relationship? An empirical analysis 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
This article aims to estimate the size of the US shadow economy (SE) using a structural equation approach and to evaluate if a structural relationship exists between the SE and the unemployment rate (UR) in the United States. The size of the SE is estimated to be decreasing over the last two decades. We corroborate the existence of a structural relationship between the SE and the UR by using a simple theoretical model. Furthermore, we extend the Okun's law to estimate the structural relationship between growth rate of official GDP, SE and UR. Our results indicate a significant positive relationship between the SE and the UR. 相似文献
120.
Luciana Aparecida Barbieri da Rosa Jordana Marques Kneipp Roberto Schoproni Bichueti Clandia Maffi ni Gomes João Fernando Zamberlan 《Latin American Business Review》2013,14(3-4):289-308
ABSTRACT This article analyzes what influences a firm's choice of strategy—why some firms stick to defensive strategies while others rely on offensive ones. With this in mind a survey was conducted on mineral sector companies associated with the Brazilian Mining Institute. The results show that the majority of companies use an offensive strategy and that some companies use more than one strategy at the same time. That is, they possess a corporate strategy and a sustainability strategy. 相似文献