Uncertainty during tender offers and the measurement of shareholder wealth effects

Uncertainty concerning the ultimate outcome of tender offers may affect the measurement of changes in shareholder wealth. The uncertainty regarding the outcome of tender offers is measured by estimating the probability of acceptance of tender offers during the period when the tender offers are outstanding. The estimated probability of acceptance of tender offers implies that the amount of uncertainty prior to knowledge of the ultimate outcome is substantial and affects the measurement of expected equity gains. The uncertainty-adjusted measure of the change in shareholder wealth indicates that previous studies may have underestimated the gains expected to result from tender offers.     

The National Cycle Strategy in the UK: to what extent have local authorities adopted its model strategy approach?

In 1996 the UK government announced a National Cycle Strategy (NCS) which included a model local cycle strategy. This paper reports on the findings of an ongoing research project, which seeks to evaluate the extent to which recently published local cycle strategies reflect best practice as enshrined in the model guidance. The results suggest that the level of take up of the model strategy is highly variable and ranges from authorities which adopt the model in its entirety to those that effectively ignore it. If government targets for increasing cycle use are to be achieved then it will be necessary for more local authorities to develop robust plans which are consistent with the NCS.     

Constrained conjunctive-use for endogenously separable water markets: managing the Waihole–Waikane aqueduct

An internal solution to an optimal control problem involving conjunctive‐use of surface and groundwater may be inapplicable if water is not sufficiently fungible across space and time. We provide a more general solution and apply it to the problem of allocating a limited amount of water from the Ko‘olau mountains to two Oahu water districts separated by those mountains. The solution involves initially allocating all of the mountain water to the district supplied by groundwater but eventually allocating all of the water to the district supplied by surface water. The conditions for an internal solution hold only in the intervening years when some mountain water is allocated to each district.     

Profit Based Efficiency Measures,with an Application to Rice Production in Southern India

Using non‐parametric methods, we estimate the foregone rents due to credit, allocative, and technical inefficiencies of subsistence farmers in Southern India. The lost rents are estimated directly from the Nerlovian efficiency index, and the results suggest the largest foregone rents derive from allocative inefficiencies and then credit inefficiencies. Also, results suggest that farms without well access experience larger losses than those with well access. Econometric results suggest education, the presence of tank water management efforts, and well access influence the level of foregone rent due to allocative and Nerlovian inefficiencies. Educational activities and policies to encourage better management of tanks are considered important for lowering the foregone losses.     

The Indirect Displacement Hypothesis: a Case Study in Washington,D.C.

Stereotypes abound about the clash between newcomers to urban neighborhoods and their longstanding residents. In a case study of Columbia Heights in the District of Columbia, the preferences and attitudes of newcomers and longstanding residents are compared. The comparison will help assess the extent to which indirect displacement pressures in the domain of retail activity might be occurring in Columbia Heights. Data from surveys conducted in 2008 by the Howard University Center for Urban Progress (HUCUP) form the empirical base of this study. A total of 217 completed surveys were received, 116 from an Internet survey and 101 one-on-one street interviews. The sample was split into thirds (according to length of time that the participant lived in the neighborhood) leading to break points at two years and eight years of residency. All respondents who lived in the neighborhood two years or less or eight years or more were kept in the final sample. The former were defined as “newcomers” and the latter were defined as “longstanding residents”. There were 77 newcomers and 74 longstanding residents in the final sample. The survey instrument inquired about respondents’ opinions about the availability and quality of stores by type, the variety of stores, and what types of stores they would like to see added to the neighborhood. Respondents were then asked their assessment of the new commercial developments and of the previously existing businesses in the corridor. Chi-square tests were used to test the hypotheses that there were differences between the two populations -- newcomers and long-standing residents -- in terms of preferences and attitudes. The findings demonstrated significant differences between the two groups in terms of their opinions about the commercial corridor, although both groups were generally pleased with the new retail developments. The analysis of these data weakly supports the hypothesis that indirect factors could heighten pressures for displacement of longstanding residents, but it is argued that the main focus of gentrification studies should continue to be on the direct economic factors affecting longstanding residents during neighborhood revitalization.     

Stochastic search variable selection in vector error correction models with an application to a model of the UK macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for stochastic search variable selection (currently popular with regression and vector autoregressive models) for vector error correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The international political economy of early modern copper mercantilism: Rent seeking and copper money in Sweden 1624–1776

In 1624–1776 Sweden minted intrinsic value copper coins, alongside silver coins. One purpose behind introducing the copper standard was to use its monopoly position at the European markets to manipulate the international copper prices, implementing a kind of copper mercantilism. This paper presents a model of an early modern copper monopolist that could price discriminate between two different uses for copper: copper for export and copper for minting. The paper concludes that authorities did not completely conform to this rent-seeking model, since there were also other considerations behind minting policy, such as providing a stable monetary system. The model shows that under profit-maximisation minting should have been even higher and the price of copper money lower, but at periods minting and prices approached the optimal state. In the 17th century, the market for copper money was probably too small relative the huge copper production, but by the 1720s and 1730s, when copper production had declined, the copper standard functioned more smoothly.     

New annual estimates of Swedish GDP, 1800–2010

Although the historical national accounts of Sweden are among the most detailed in the world, there is scope for improvement. This study revises previous historical estimates of Swedish GDP. Agricultural output is upgraded for the nineteenth century following recent research by Swedish agrarian historians on the underestimation of official statistics. Estimates of annual fluctuations before 1861 are significantly improved by using new sources on yield ratios of harvests. For manufacturing, home industries are added, in accordance with modern international guidelines (2008 SNA). The study concludes that early nineteenth‐century Sweden was not as poor relative to other West European countries as previously thought.     

The Accounting Profession: Substantive Change and/or Image Management

The accounting profession’s image and reputation is built upon the members of the profession acting with the “highest sense of integrity” in “the public interest” (AICPA, 2003, www.aicpa.org/about). The Enron debacle initiated the latest crisis facing the profession regarding its image and reputation. The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) is the largest professional body representing the accounting profession and the one to which regulators have looked in establishing and upholding professional standards relating to the public practice of accounting and auditing. One of the AICPA’s responsibilities is to “promote public awareness and confidence in the integrity, objectivity, competence and professionalism of CPAs ....” (AICPA, 2003, www.aicpa.org/about). We analyze the public statements issued by the AICPA (i.e., press releases, speeches of officers, testimony, published articles) during this ethical and identity crisis beginning with the AICPA’s first public statement on the Enron debacle (AIPCA 2001) and concluding with the AICPA recognizing the need for a “new accounting culture” (Melancon 2002). In order to better understand the public discourse, we use image restoration theory (Benoit, 1995), because it provides a typology of strategies for dealing with the public face of crises. We identify the three most common strategies the AICPA employs during this period. Proposals for taking corrective action represent the most commonly employed strategy, but the analysis also indicates an attempt to evade responsibility by claiming defeasibility and to reduce the offensiveness of the situation by employing a bolstering strategy. A second analysis using DICTION, a software package useful in revealing latent dimensions in a text, indicates that early statements tend to use language related to accomplishing specific action while the later statements tend more toward general language that relates to peoples’ everyday lives. The findings raise questions as to substantive nature of the changes proposed by the AICPA, and thus, the extent to which the public interest is being served by them.