START FILLING YOUR TALENT GAP-NOW

As businesses steer their way out of turbulence, they have a unique opportunity to identify their leadership supply and demand and then to close the talent gap in their organization. Alan Bird, Lori Flees and Paul DiPaola explain how you can take immediate steps to build the right team now – and lay the groundwork for a long-term approach for nurturing talent within the organization.     

Economic evaluation of nivolumab for the treatment of second-line advanced squamous NSCLC in Canada: a comparison of modeling approaches to estimate and extrapolate survival outcomes

Background Lung cancer is the most common type of cancer in the world and is associated with significant mortality. Nivolumab demonstrated statistically significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for patients with advanced squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who were previously treated. The cost-effectiveness of nivolumab has not been assessed in Canada. A contentious component of projecting long-term cost and outcomes in cancer relates to the modeling approach adopted, with the two most common approaches being partitioned survival (PS) and Markov models. The objectives of this analysis were to estimate the cost-utility of nivolumab and to compare the results using these alternative modeling approaches.

Methods Both PS and Markov models were developed using docetaxel and erlotinib as comparators. A three-health state model was used consisting of progression-free, progressed disease, and death. Disease progression and time to progression were estimated by identifying best-fitting survival curves from the clinical trial data for PFS and OS. Expected costs and health outcomes were calculated by combining health-state occupancy with medical resource use and quality-of-life assigned to each of the three health states. The health outcomes included in the model were survival and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs).

Results Nivolumab was found to have the highest expected per-patient cost, but also improved per-patient life years (LYs) and QALYs. Nivolumab cost an additional $151,560 and $140,601 per QALY gained compared to docetaxel and erlotinib, respectively, using a PS model approach. The cost-utility estimates using a Markov model were very similar ($152,229 and $141,838, respectively, per QALY gained).

Conclusions Nivolumab was found to involve a trade-off between improved patient survival and QALYs, and increased cost. It was found that the use of a PS or Markov model produced very similar estimates of expected cost, outcomes, and incremental cost-utility.     

The English Football Industry: profit,performance and industrial structure

The English (Association) Football League is a long established industrial cartel selling a highly popular product with only imperfect substitutes. Despite that, the majority of its member clubs lose money and the industry has faced successive financial crises over the last decade. This paper develops an empirical model of the financial performance of English League clubs using a high quality dataset of 48 clubs over the period 1974–89. The underlying model explains how rents are competed away through the maximising behaviour of club owners subject to production constraints. This model is parameterised by a system of equations which describe the behaviour of a maximising owner subject to demand and production constraints. The model is then used to examine the coordination failure which lies at the heart of the English Football League's decline and to assess the prospects for the Premier League.     

Predicting long-run risk factors of stock returns: Evidence from Australia

This study utilises the stock market data provided by the Australian Equity Database to analyse the long-run relationship between Australian stock returns and key macroeconomic variables over the period 1926–2017. To measure the diverse risk factors in the stock market, we examine the possible determinants in four main categories: real, financial, domestic and international. Our results reveal that historical stock returns are strongly connected to financial and international factors as compared to real and domestic factors. Both the 1973–1974 OPEC Oil Price Crisis and 2007–2008 Global Financial Crisis had dampening effects on stock returns. There is a positive association between the US and Australian stock markets in the long-run. These findings on stock market dynamics and their linkages with domestic and international macroeconomic policy changes in the long-run have important implications for traders and practitioners.     

Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs

This survey uses a number of recent developments in the analysis of cointegrating Vector Autoregressions (VARs) to examine their links to the older structural modelling traditions using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), and Simultaneous Equations Models (SEMs). In particular, it emphasizes the importance of using judgement and economic theory to supplement the statistical information. After a brief historical review it sets out the statistical framework, discusses the identification of impulse responses using the Generalized Impulse Response functions, reviews the analysis of cointegrating VARs and highlights the large number of choices applied workers have to make in determining a specification. In particular, it considers the problem of specification of intercepts and trends and the size of the VAR in more detail, and examines the advantages of the use of exogenous variables in cointegration analysis. The issues are illustrated with a small U.S. Macroeconomic model.     

Expatriates in their own home: A new twist in the human resource management strategies of japanese mncs

Liaison positions in an overseas subsidiary represent a vital link to the parent company. Staffing this position constitutes a critical HRM decision. Based on exploratory interviews conducted with personnel managers and foreign employees, we examine an emerging approach to meeting this staffing need which entails hiring non-Japanese as employees of the parent company, retaining them at headquarters in Japan for three to four years, then assigning them back to their own countries as expatriates. We discuss this approach's underlying rationale, its advantages and disadvantages, and its potential implications for future IHRM developments within Japanese MNCs.     

Competition and Efficiency after Privatization: The Role of the NAO

One of the arguments for privatization is to promote market competition in order to facilitate efficiency gains. This review of NAO privatization reports shows that the promotion of competition is rarely stated as an objective of a privatization and, where it is, it can lead to difficulties in drawing objective audit conclusions. The work of the regulators is of considerable importance after privatization; and a more recent role for the NAO is that of responsibility for the financial audit and value-for-money studies of these regulators. These NAO studies provide new opportunities to review the effectiveness of the regulators and to promote accountability in competition policy after privatization.     

Match your innovation strategy to your innovation ecosystem

High-definition televisions should, by now, be a huge success. Philips, Sony, and Thompson invested billions of dollars to develop TV sets with astonishing picture quality. From a technology perspective, they've succeeded: Console manufacturers have been ready for the mass market since the early 1990s. Yet the category has been an unmitigated failure, not because of deficiencies, but because critical complements such as studio production equipment were not developed or adopted in time. Under-performing complements have left console producers in the position of offering a Ferrari in a world without gasoline or highways--an admirable engineering feat, but not one that creates value for customers. The HDTV story exemplifies the promise and peril of innovation ecosystems--the collaborative arrangements through which firms combine their individual offers into a coherent, customer-facing solution. When they work, innovation ecosystems allow companies to create value that no one firm could have created alone. The benefits of these systems are real. But for many organizations the attempt at ecosystem innovation has been a costly failure. This is because, along with new opportunities, innovation ecosystems also present a new set of risks that can brutally derail a firm's best efforts. Innovation ecosystems are characterized by three fundamental types of risk: initiative risks--the familiar uncertainties of managing a project; interdependence risks--the uncertainties of coordinating with complementary innovators; and integration risks--the uncertainties presented by the adoption process across the value chain. Firms that assess ecosystem risks holistically and systematically will be able to establish more realistic expectations, develop a more refined set of environmental contingencies, and arrive at a more robust innovation strategy. Collectively, these actions will lead to more effective implementation and more profitable innovation.     

Over‐optimism and the IMF

One way of assessing the impact of IMF programmes is to see whether performance and policy targets are achieved. However, does a failure to hit targets mean that the programmes have been unsuccessful, or could it be that targets have been too ambitious? This paper analyses political economy factors impinging on governments and on the IMF that may lead to serial over‐optimism. It goes on to examine the empirical evidence that is consistent with over‐optimism. Having considered whether over‐optimism is a cause for concern, and concluded that it is, the paper considers reforms that would allow realism to replace it. By eliminating over‐optimism it is argued that the psychology of failure surrounding IMF programmes could be significantly reduced or even broken.