A simulation of moral behavior within marketing exchange relationships

This investigation uses a simulated business-to-business sales context to examine five individual moral philosophies (true altruists, true egoists, realistic altruists, tit-for-tats, and realistic egoists). The simulation is based on the Iterative Prisoner’s Dilemma and its associated payoffs, employing computer-generated sales agents that represent different companies and industries. The agents were selected randomly across 1,000 rounds, and interacted with exchange partners according to the moral philosophies noted. In some cases, various corporate cultures were added to determine their impact on the evolution and final mix of philosophical orientations of agents within firms. Simulation results indicate the importance of ethical behavior on the long-term financial success of companies as well as the larger industries in which they participate.     

Making Economic Policy in a Democratic Indonesia: The First Two Decades

After three decades of rapid economic growth during the authoritarian Soeharto era, followed by the deep but relatively short‐lived Asian financial crisis, Indonesia transitioned rapidly to democratic and decentralized governance. We examine policy‐making processes and economic outcomes during the first two decades of this new era, leading up to the 2019 national elections where it was widely conjectured that Indonesia might follow the global trends of authoritarian rule and illiberalism. We conclude that, thus far, Indonesia has navigated the transition from authoritarian to democratic rule quite successfully. Compared to the Soeharto era, growth has been somewhat slower, inequality has risen, and policy reform is slower and generally incremental. But living standards continue to rise and all major political players have elected to operate within the new democratic parameters. Macroeconomic management has continued to be effective. Nevertheless, there are no grounds for complacency: there is a large outstanding reform agenda, and the economy is not providing enough economic opportunities for the better‐educated senior secondary and tertiary graduates entering the workforce.     

Cost-effectiveness of targeted screening for the identification of patients with atrial fibrillation: evaluation of a machine learning risk prediction algorithm

Abstract

Aims: As many cases of atrial fibrillation (AF) are asymptomatic, patients often remain undiagnosed until complications (e.g. stroke) manifest. Risk-prediction algorithms may help to efficiently identify people with undiagnosed AF. However, the cost-effectiveness of targeted screening remains uncertain. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of targeted screening, informed by a machine learning (ML) risk prediction algorithm, to identify patients with AF.

Methods: Cost-effectiveness analyses were undertaken utilizing a hybrid screening decision tree and Markov disease progression model. Costs and outcomes associated with the detection of AF compared traditional systematic and opportunistic AF screening strategies to targeted screening informed by a ML risk prediction algorithm. Model analyses were based on adults ≥50?years and adopted the UK NHS perspective.

Results: Targeted screening using the ML risk prediction algorithm required fewer patients to be screened (61 per 1,000 patients, compared to 534 and 687 patients in the systematic and opportunistic strategies) and detected more AF cases (11 per 1,000 patients, compared to 6 and 8?AF cases in the systematic and opportunistic screening strategies). The targeted approach demonstrated cost-effectiveness under base case settings (cost per QALY gained of £4,847 and £5,544 against systematic and opportunistic screening respectively). The targeted screening strategy was predicted to provide an additional 3.40 and 2.05 QALYs per 1,000 patients screened versus systematic and opportunistic strategies. The targeted screening strategy remained cost-effective in all scenarios evaluated.

Limitations: The analysis relied on assumptions that include the extended period of patient life span and the lack of consideration for treatment discontinuations/switching, as well as the assumption that the ML risk-prediction algorithm will identify asymptomatic AF.

Conclusions: Targeted screening using a ML risk prediction algorithm has the potential to enhance the clinical and cost-effectiveness of AF screening, improving health outcomes through efficient use of limited healthcare resources.     

U.S. immigration regulations and India's information technology industry

The export-led growth of India's information technology (IT) industry has been nothing short of phenomenal over the past half-dozen years. Other studies have provided a number of explanations for the growth. This paper proposes that a significant factor has been overlooked or understated in prior explanations. Specifically, the Indian IT industry has utilized U.S. immigration regulations for competitive advantage to accelerate its growth. The importance of this factor is estimated through quantitative data analysis at the macro and firm levels. The analysis helps to explain why India's IT industry grew while that of other developing countries, with similar human capital resources and wage rates, did not. The U.S. Congress is currently debating U.S. immigration policies and may change them in the near future. Any changes will have significant effects on the future growth pattern of the Indian IT industry. Many developing countries have recognized India's success, and policymakers in those countries are implementing strategies to replicate it. The results from this study may help those policymakers better understand a key factor of India's success in exporting IT.     

Examining Federal Impact Aid's Reimbursement for Local School Districts

In 1950, Congress created the Federal Impact Aid Program to compensate local school districts for lost tax revenue or increased burdens resulting from federal activities, including the placement of military bases within school districts. Currently, Impact Aid provides nearly $1 billion per year in subsidies to approximately 1400 local school districts that enroll over 1.2 million eligible children. This current study examines the adequacy of the funding in the Impact Aid program as an example of how the existing public finance literature provides the tools to help policy makers make informed decisions. (JEL H0 , H7 , 12 )     

An inspector calls: farm accommodation providers' attitudes to quality assurance schemes in the county of Devon

Estimates suggest that 10 000 farms in the UK offer bed and breakfast (B and B) serviced accommodation. A thorough review of the existing literature indicates over 50% of Devon and Cornwall's farmhouse B and B sector operate without participating in any form of quality assurance inspection scheme. This research executes a stratified postal survey to gain a comprehensive understanding of Devon's farmhouse B and B product, with particular interest in extracting providers' attitudes towards quality assurance inspection schemes. The very representative results suggest a divergence of attitudes towards the notion of quality inspections for all farmhouse B and B providers. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.