Trade Costs,Trade Balances and Current Accounts: An Application of Gravity to Multilateral Trade

In this paper we test the well-known hypothesis of Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 7777:339–390, 2000) that trade costs are the key to explaining the so-called Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Our approach has a number of novel features. First, we focus on the interrelationship between trade costs, the trade account and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Second, we use the gravity model to estimate the effect of trade costs on bilateral trade and, third, we show how bilateral trade can be used to draw inferences about desired trade balances and desired intertemporal trade. Our econometric results provide strong support for the Obstfeld and Rogoff hypothesis and we are also able to reconcile our results with the so-called home bias puzzle.

Running the Numbers on Lotteries and the Poor: An Empirical Analysis of Transfer Payment Distribution and Subsequent Lottery Sales

State lottery revenues are shown to increase during the week transfer payments are distributed. The timing of the increase in lottery purchases suggests a portion of the transfer payments is used to purchase lottery tickets. In addition to providing information on the timing of lottery purchases, this study finds sales of Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets increase during the period, while sales of Pick 5 and Pick 6 games do not, suggesting a general preference for the relatively higher probability, smaller jackpot games for the group.

Illusory revenues: Import tariffs in resource-rich and aid-rich economies

Where imports are financed predominantly by rents from resource extraction or aid the revenue generated by tariffs is illusory. Revenue earned by the tariff is offset by a reduction in the real value of aid and resource rents. Revenue is however moved between accounts in the government budget which, in the case of aid, may reduce the burden of donor conditionality. We demonstrate this proposition for a simple central case and show that the result is not overturned by generalisations around this case. We argue that trade policy formulation in such economies should recognize the illusory nature of tariff revenues.     

Serial and spatial error correlation

This paper demonstrates that jointly modeling serial and spatial error correlation results in a trade-off between the serial and spatial autocorrelation coefficients. Ignoring this trade-off causes inefficiency and may lead to nonstationarity.     

Good News and Bad News: Search from Unknown Wage Offer Distributions

The largest market in national economies is the labor market. Labor market contracting is characterized by job search, often from unknown wage offer distributions. This paper reports experimental tests of finite horizon models of job search in which the wage offer distribution is unknown. Theoretically-optimal search from an unknown wage offer distribution can have the seemingly paradoxical property that some offers will be accepted that are lower than other offers that will be rejected in the same period of the search horizon. Thus the reservation wage property (or lowest acceptable wage path) may not exist. This can occur because an offer that is a priori relatively high (good news) can imply that it is highly probable that search is from a favorable distribution, and such an offer can look unattractive when it is an a posteriori relatively low offer from a favorable distribution (bad news). This paper reports results from experimental treatments for search from unknown distributions in which the reservation wage property does exist and treatments in which it does not exist. We find that the consistency of search behavior with search theory reported in earlier papers is robust to the presence or absence of the reservation wage property and to whether the draws come from known or unknown distributions.     

Stock-flow matching and the performance of the labor market

We estimate outflow equations for vacancies and unemployed workers in Britain, departing from the stock-based analysis of matching in two ways. First, we deal with the temporal aggregation problem that arises when discrete time data are used to describe continuous time processes. Second, we allow for a stock-flow matching mechanism in which the stock of traders on one side of the market matches with the flow of traders on the other side. Our estimates are in line with the predictions of stock-flow matching in terms of higher exit rates of flows and of matching combinations between labor market stocks and flows. Furthermore, employer search effectiveness did not seem to decline between the 1960s and the 1990s. Nevertheless, some deterioration in worker search effectiveness is detected, however less severe than that implied by previous, stock-based work.     

Modelling Heterogeneity and Uncertainty in Contingent Valuation: an Application to the Valuation of Informal Care

Both the lack of market data and the need to adopt a more holistic approach in the valuation of non‐market activities within health care have pointed towards the use of contingent valuation (CV) methods. However, to date, few studies have employed such techniques to value informal care, despite its provision being an important public policy question. We propose an analytical framework that through the use of random parameters models and respondents' certainty scales can incorporate both unobserved and observed heterogeneity in the CV modelling. This is the first CV study of informal care for Scotland (UK) and a £7.68 per hour value is estimated.     

Connectivity and work dominance: Panacea or pariah?

Does technologically-supported work connectivity help young managers and professionals under the age of 45 deal with the pressing demands of their work, or does the presence of work-connecting technologies exacerbate the tendencies of this talent force to engage in more work and longer working hours? Utilizing both surveys and follow-up focus group interactions, this study found that while work-connecting technologies permitted a greater range of options regarding when and where work was done, this same connectivity provided constant availability to work and often drove expectations that more must be done, thereby increasing the likelihood of longer work hours and—surprisingly—leading to a diminished sense of flexibility. Study participants offer insights regarding the thought processes behind these outcomes. Perspectives on how emerging leaders and their organizations can effectively manage and achieve the potential of enhanced connectivity are provided. A four-phased approach is recommended. First, we discuss key cultural dynamics. Second, the role of organizational expectations and practices is emphasized. Third, we consider a set of responsibilities for organizational leaders, whose actions and cues provide the most vivid clarity for young managers attempting to decide where to draw the work/life balance line. Finally, the challenge and responsibility of personal accountability is presented. Consideration of a work paradigm that reorients our thinking about traditional “face time,” and strives to bridge the gap between the potential and pervasive impact of work-connecting technologies, is also included.     

Globalisation: A New Growth,New Trade Perspective

The current crisis in Asia has seen the case for more open economic policy come under attack in the developing world. In this article Michael Chui, Paul Levine, Mansoob Murshed, and Joseph Pearlman argue that any reversal of the trend towards globalisation would be a great mistake for policymakers. The association of openness with higher growth is one of the most robust empirical results in economics. Here we explore the mechanisms that explain this result. We argue that current high growth rates in Asia are unsustainable and there is a long-term as well as a short-term problem of ‘over-investment’ in Asia. However, we report research findings that show how international knowledge spillovers and free trade can enable the world economy to grow, the developing countries to progress, and the developed countries to benefit.