Out‐of‐Sample Return Predictability: A Quantile Combination Approach

This paper develops a novel forecasting method that minimizes the effects of weak predictors and estimation errors on the accuracy of equity premium forecasts. The proposed method is based on an averaging scheme applied to quantiles conditional on predictors selected by LASSO. The resulting forecasts outperform the historical average, and other existing models, by statistically and economically meaningful margins. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How former business owners fare in the labor market? Job assignment and earnings

This study uses detailed longitudinal matched employer–employee data to examine the impact of entrepreneurial experience on job assignments, careers, and wages. The results suggest that there are significant differences in career mobility between former business owners and workers who were always wage employees. Former business owners enter firms at higher job levels and progress faster up the hierarchy than wage employees without entrepreneurial experience. The majority of the former business owners find jobs in small firms. The return to business ownership experience is lower than the return to wage employee experience, thus suggesting that the labor market imposes a penalty for business ownership experience.     

WINNERS AND LOSERS FROM DOLLAR DEPRECIATION

We examine the relationship between the US current account deficit, the international value of the dollar, and the dollar reserves of foreign central banks. The declining dollar could benefit US savers at the expense of foreign investors in the USA.     

Decentralized pricing in minimum cost spanning trees

In the minimum cost spanning tree model we consider decentralized pricing rules, i.e., rules that cover at least the efficient cost while the price charged to each user only depends upon his own connection costs. We define a canonical pricing rule and provide two axiomatic characterizations. First, the canonical pricing rule is the smallest among those that improve upon the Stand Alone bound, and are either superadditive or piece-wise linear in connection costs. Our second, direct characterization relies on two simple properties highlighting the special role of the source cost.     

Privatization And Economic Restructuring in Poland: An Assessment of Transition Policies

A bstract . Poland was among the first of the Central European countries to attempt to transform its economy from a centrally planned socialist system to a market-oriented one. Although its International Monetary Fund-inspired "shock therapy" approach sought to transform the economy quickly, Poland's implementation of privatization of state enterprises , a keystone of the reform strategy, lags seriously behind other economic changes. Poland's experiments with privatization were derailed by economic, political, social and administrative problems. The lessons of experience from Poland's transitional period during the early 1990s are that the development of small- and medium-sized enterprises and the spread of entrepreneurial activity were far more important than privatization of state enterprises in moving Poland toward a market system.     

Implementing efficient, anonymous and neutral social choice functions

Implementing a social choice function is to endow the agents involved in a collective decision problem with a privately owned decision power, in such a way that by exercising (noncooperatively) this power the agents eventually select the very outcome recommended by the social choice function.In this paper, we show that the concept of dominance-solvable voting scheme allows the implementation of some of the most desirable social choice functions. Namely our main result is the following: If the number of agents n is a prime integer strictly greater than the number of outcomes p then there exists at least one efficient, anonymous and neutral social choice function, in short eanscf, that can be implemented by a dominance-solvable voting scheme. The result is proved constructively, i.e., by looking at a repeated version of voting by veto that is by itself an appealing voting scheme. The arithmetic condition (n should be prime and greater than p) is very natural (since it does not exist an eanscf unless every prime factor of n is greater than p).     

Management of Knowledge Sources Supported by Domain Ontologies: Building and Construction Case Studys

This paper introduces a novel conceptual framework to support the creation of knowledge representations based on enriched semantic vectors, using the classical vector space model approach extended with ontological support. This work is focused on collaborative engineering projects where knowledge plays a key role in the process. Collaboration is the arena, engineering projects are the target and knowledge is the currency used to provide harmony into the arena since it can potentially support innovation and, hence, a successful collaboration. The test bed for the assessment of the approach comes from the Building and Construction sector, which is challenged with significant problems for exchanging, sharing and integrating information among actors. Semantic gaps or lack of meaning definition at the conceptual and technical levels, for example, are problems fundamentally originated through the employment of representations to map the ‘world’ into models in an endeavour to anticipate other actors’ views, vocabulary and even motivations. One of the primary research challenges addressed in this work relates to the process of formalization and representation of document contents, where most existing approaches are limited and only take into account the explicit, word-based information in the document. The research described in this paper explores how traditional knowledge representations can be enriched through incorporation of implicit information derived from the complex relationships (semantic associations) modelled by domain ontologies with the addition of information presented in documents, by providing a baseline for facilitating knowledge interpretation and sharing between humans and machines. Preliminary results were collected using a clustering algorithm for document classification, which indicates that the proposed approach does improve the precision and recall of classifications. Future work and open issues are also discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Serial entrepreneurship: impact of human capital on time to re-entry

This study uses a longitudinal matched employer–employee database to examine how ex-entrepreneurs’ levels of general and specific human capital influence their likelihood of re-entering entrepreneurship over time, in a different firm, thereby becoming serial entrepreneurs. The results reveal a negative effect of general human capital on the hazard of becoming a serial entrepreneur; the impact of entrepreneurial-specific human capital on the hazard of re-entering entrepreneurship is in general positive. This research provides a dynamic approach to serial entrepreneurship revealing that specific types of human capital play distinct roles on individuals’ entrepreneurial behavior.