Advertising intensity,investor recognition,and implied cost of capital

The main purpose of this paper is to test Merton’s (J Finance 42(3):483–510, 1987) hypothesis that better investor recognition is correlated with lower expected returns. We measure investor recognition with the firms’ advertising intensity and offer consistent evidence that higher advertising intensity is associated with lower implied cost of capital, as derived from Value Line target prices and dividend forecasts. Investor recognition plays an important role in attracting investors, improving liquidity, and ultimately reducing the cost of capital. The findings shed light on the capital market implications of advertising expenditures and complement the extant research on investor recognition.     

Erhöht Solvency II den Bedarf an Rückversicherung im Schaden-/Unfallgeschäft in Deutschland?

Reinsurers and reinsurance brokers are often of the opinion that the introduction of Solvency II will lead to changes in how re-insurance is purchased. Our analysis of these assumptions for the German property and casualty insurance market lead to a market survey. This survey revealed that overall the participating insurance companies expect no significant changes for their companies, although they do anticipate changes in buying patterns of the rest of the market and in the overall market environment. This paper examines the reasons for this difference in expectations between those of individual companies and those of the overall market.     

Returns to Retail Banking and Payments

The present paper examines the fundamental relationship between the country-level infrastructure of the retail payment market and overall bank performance. Using data from across 27 European markets over the period 2000–07, the results confirm that the performance of banks in countries with more developed retail payment service markets is better. This relationship is stronger in countries with a relatively high adoption of retail payment transaction technologies. Retail payment transaction technology itself can also improve bank performance, and evidence shows that heterogeneity in retail payment instruments is associated with enhanced bank performance. Similarly, higher usage of electronic retail payment instruments seems to stimulate banking business. We also show that retail payment services have a more significant impact on savings and cooperative bank performance, although they have a positive influence on the performance of commercial banks as well. Additionally, the findings reveal that the impact of retail services on bank performance is more pronounced through fee income, although their impact through interest income is also positive. Finally, an effective payment service market is found to be associated with higher bank stability. Our findings are robust to different regression specifications.     

Are college students at greater risk of credit card abuse? Age,gender, materialism and parental influence on consumer response to credit cards

Two studies examine age, gender, parental influence and materialism effects on consumers’ credit card attitudes and behavior. Credit card commitment and use are greater among older adults than college students. Women outperform men in managing balances. Materialism heightens commitment, trust and use, but interferes with outstanding balance management. Parental influence can improve students’ commitment, trust, use and balance management while discouraging overuse. Parental influence also mediates materialism's effect on trust and balance management. Overall, findings show college students are not more vulnerable than older adults to credit card abuse, but that students who are female, materialistic and with less parental influence are at more risk.     

Forecasting the past: the case of US interest rate forecasts

This study evaluates 10-year US government bond yield forecasts and three-month US Treasury bill rate forecasts for the period between October 1989 and December 2004. In total, 136 forecast time series with approximately 13,800 forecast data were scrutinized, making this the most extensive analysis of interest rate forecasts to date. Not one of the forecast time series proved to be unbiased. In the majority of cases, information from the past was not efficiently integrated into the forecasts. The sign accuracy is significantly better than random walk forecasts in only a very few of the forecast time series. The modified Diebold–Mariano test for forecast encompassing reveals that the information content of most of the forecast time series is lower than that of the naïve forecasts, the simple ARIMA models, the implicit forward rates, or average interest rate expectations. The forecasting process is dominated by the present and past market situation.     

I. Neuerscheinungen versicherungswissenschaftlicher Bücher

Ohne Zusammenfassung Zusammengestellt von Inga Krebs     

Relationship disconnect in retail banking

It has been established that increasing the role of technology in a service organisation can serve to reduce costs and improve service reliability. It is argued, however, that there remains an important role for personalised relationships in the delivery of any service proposition. Throughout this paper both of these perspectives will be discussed and an attempt is made to reconcile these apparently opposing views in the emerging age of technology-enabled remote relationships. Findings from a longitudinal research study with a large UK case bank that focused on the area of remote relationships are revisited and reinterpreted with management from the case bank in question. Through this reflective lens the bank's recent strategic decision to no longer proactively relationship manage its personal customer base is examined. In light of this deliberate relationship disconnection strategy key marketing implications are discussed.     

Investor reactions to derivative use and outcomes

How do investors evaluate managers who choose whether or not to use derivatives once the outcomes of those decisions become known? Different theories offer different predictions, and we test these in three experiments. Results show that investors are more satisfied with firm managers and assign a higher value to firms when managers use derivatives (that address firm risks) than when they do not. This result occurs even though we hold constant the economic differences typically present when comparing derivative use versus non-use (that is, ex ante risk and ex post outcome), suggesting that investors reward firms that use derivatives. Additional tests reveal that investors believe that managers who use derivatives in these situations exhibit a higher level of decision-making care than those who do not use derivatives. We also document that these inferences about greater decision-making care do not apply to the speculative use of derivatives. Overall, our study adds to our understanding of how investors judge companies that use derivatives, given the resulting outcomes of such use.     

Valuation of default-sensitive claims under imperfect information

We propose a valuation method for financial assets subject to default risk, where investors cannot observe the state variable triggering the default but observe a correlated price process. The model is sufficiently general to encompass a large class of structural models and can be seen as a generalization of the model of Duffie and Lando (Econometrica 69:633–664, [2001]). In this setting we prove that the default time is totally inaccessible in the market’s filtration and derive the conditional default probabilities and the intensity process. Finally, we provide pricing formulas for default-sensitive claims and illustrate in particular examples the shapes of the credit spreads.      

On the duality principle in option pricing: semimartingale setting

The purpose of this paper is to describe the appropriate mathematical framework for the study of the duality principle in option pricing. We consider models where prices evolve as general exponential semimartingales and provide a complete characterization of the dual process under the dual measure. Particular cases of these models are the ones driven by Brownian motions and by Lévy processes, which have been considered in several papers. Generally speaking, the duality principle states that the calculation of the price of a call option for a model with price process S=e ^H (with respect to the measure P) is equivalent to the calculation of the price of a put option for a suitable dual model S′=e ^H′ (with respect to the dual measure P′). More sophisticated duality results are derived for a broad spectrum of exotic options. The second named author acknowledges the financial support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, Eb 66/9-2). This research was carried out while the third named author was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt foundation.