论投资环境评价的改进

近年来,关于投资环境评价的理论和方法层出不穷,但是,评价体系不完善、评价方法不统一、评价基础不确定等原因使得目前投资环境评价缺乏针对性和适用性,其中评价基础不确定是主要原因。文章认为,投资环境评价的基础是企业,即投资环境评价要面向企业,以企业的经营效果为起点,同时也把企业的经营效果作为终点。     

Financial investor sentiment and the boom/bust in oil prices during 2003–2008

From both theoretical and policy perspectives, it is important to understand if financial speculation contributes to the boom/bust in oil prices during 2003–2008. In this paper, we disentangle the effects of financial speculation from those of economic fundamentals by focusing on exogenous changes of financial speculation in oil markets identified by changes in financial investor sentiment. Furthermore, we focus on a quasi-experiment setting, and investigate both sentiment-driven overvaluation of oil prices and subsequent mispricing correction. Our findings suggest that financial speculation might have contributed to the 2003–2008 boom/bust in oil prices.     

Systemic risk and dynamics of contagion: a duplex inter-bank network

This paper constructs a duplex banking network formed by credit relationships and information interaction via the banks’ balance sheet to model the structure of systemic risk and investigate the dynamic mechanism of contagion in terms of default and liquidity infection along with the factors that affect the extent of the contagion. We systematically explain the role that duplex banking networks play in different aspects of risk contagion. Through theoretical analysis and simulations, we conclude that asymmetric information interaction would increase the inflexibility of the system, which leads to liquidity shortage and possibly the collapse of the whole market. The weakness of systemic risk in the interior of the complex banking system can be characterized by the partial discount factor using illiquid assets in the information network. By improving the connectedness of the information network of the duplex networks, the spread of contagion can be partially slowed.     

Determining the integrated volatility via limit order books with multiple records

The integrated volatility plays an important role in risk management and portfolio selection, the estimation methods regarding the quantity have been widely investigated, either under low-frequency data or high-frequency data, or a combination of both. In this paper, we propose a measure for the integrated volatility via limit order book data with possible presence of multiple records. The estimator is valid under mild conditions and it is easily implemented. The finite sample performance of the proposed estimator has been verified by simulation studies and we apply the method to some real high-frequency data-sets as well.     

对南海国际争端的经济学解析

我国地处东亚的中心,是一个陆海大国,与周边各国有着漫长的边界线,地缘环境非常复杂,形势十分严峻。近些年,随着我国综合国力的逐渐壮大,以及国际格局和地区形势的变化,我国的周边安全环境进一步缓和。而南海,其独特的地理位置和战略位置决定了它的重要性。当今的南海格局被称作六国七方,南海争端涉及到诸多国家的政治、经济利益,主权、领土的争端以及运输通道和能源安全等问题。本文从博弈学和经济学的角度分析南海现状的成因,并就解决南海问题的政治经济对策进行探析。     

加强政策事中事后评估的思考

党的十九届四中全会明确提出要强化决策执行、评估、监督,做好政策评估对优化政府职能、推动国家治理体系和能力现代化有积极作用。加强政策运行情况的评估,应从优化评估工作机制、完善和培育评估机构、强化评估结果的应用入手,不断提升评估工作质量,形成适应中国特色社会主义现代化治理体系的事中事后政策评估机制。     

数字经济对区域经济高质量发展的影响研究

推动数字经济发展,是我国在当下推动经济转型,促进高质量发展的重要战略。本文基于2012~2019年省级面板数据,构建双向固定效应模型,运用基准回归、异质性检验和分位数回归的方法进行实证研究发现,数字经济助推经济高质量发展的同时还存在地区差异,对西部影响最大,中部影响最小,而数字经济的发展水平又受到产业结构、技术创新等因素影响。因此,本文针对不同地区差异分别提出建议,从而促进持续更新发展理念,以创新驱动发展,优化产业结构为数字经济提供良好环境,以期推动数字经济建设发展。     

城市土地整理的长效运作制度创新

市地整理是对城市原有的土地利用方式的一种改变与提高,从而有助于提升市地的经济自然环境以及景观美感的多目标体系的综合效益.以科学发展观为指导,建立健全科学的市地整理长效运作制度,有利于处理好城市发展与城市用地总量与结构平衡,实现城市土地整理区城内的社会经济协调发展.     

最优能源强度与我国经济增长

本文通过一个内生增长模型对能源消费与经济增长的关系进行了分析,证实存在使经济增长率最大化的最优能源强度,并且最优能源强度与能源价格反方向变动.在此基础上,估计了近年来我国的最优能源强度,并测算了实际能源强度与最优值的差距.结果表明,近年来我国实际能源强度高于最优值达3万吨标准煤/亿元以上,且有不断上升的趋势.最后提出了在保持最优能源强度的前提下降低能源消耗的政策建议.