Some fallacies in futures research

Can we study the future “rationally” and “scientifically”? This paper examines the methods now in use and finds the assumptions shaky, the tools faulty, and the implications dangerous. With data as the driver, analysis the watchword, quantification the rule, and model-building the prime preoccupation, futurology rests heavily on two key pillars, the information base and cost/benefit calculations. Because these are shown to rest on quicksand, the elaborate methodological structure based on them totters precariously.     

Problems and environment of small businesses in the Czech Republic

The impressive and spontaneous build-up of the private small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Czech Republic in 1990–93 coincided with the similarly dramatic changes in the public administration and in the whole environment for decision-making. The resulting problems of SMEs in the Czech Republic seem to be common to all economies in transition. A lot of the problems are caused by the macroeconomic policy for which this sector is not the most important part of the national economy. The paper shows some conflicts between macroeconomic anti-inflationary (monetary and fiscal) policies, and interests of small businesses. The authors stress the importance of SMEs during the period of transition. Informal aspects of the functioning of small firms are discussed, especially their relation with banks and public administration. The paper offers some empirical evidence and available statistics on SMEs developments during 1990–94 focusing particularly on manufacturing.     

Valuing Mortgage Insurance Contracts in Emerging Market Economies

We develop a new option-based method for the valuation of mortgage insurance contracts in closed form in an economy where agents are risk neutral. While the proposed valuation method is general and can be used in any market, it may be particularly useful in emerging market economies where other existing methods may be either inappropriate or are too difficult to implement because of the lack of relevant data. As an application, we price a typical Serbian government-backed mortgage insurance contract.     

Export Sophistication: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

In this article, we analyze export sophistication based on a large panel dataset (2001–2015; 101 countries) and using various estimation algorithms. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we evaluate the bias properties of estimators and show that GMM-type estimators outperform instrumental-variable and fixed-effects estimators. Based on our analysis we document that GDP per capita and the size of the economy exhibit significant and positive effects on export sophistication; weak institutional quality exhibits negative effect. We also show that export sophistication is path-dependent and stable even during a major economic crisis, which is especially important for emerging and developing economies.     

Regime shifts in stock–flow I(2)–I(1) systems: the case of US fiscal sustainability

In the last two decades, fiscal sustainability has been tested through the use of non‐stationary time series analysis. Two different approximations can be found in the literature: first, a univariate approach that has focused on the stochastic properties of the stock of debt and, second, a multivariate one that has focused on the long‐run properties of the flows of expenditures and revenues, i.e., in the stochastic properties of the deficit. In this paper we unify these approaches considering the stock–flow system that fiscal variables configure. Our approach involves working in an I(2) stochastic processes framework. Given the possibility of the existence of regime shifts in the sustainability of US deficit that the literature has pointed out, we develop a new statistic that can be applied to test several types of I(2) cointegration and multicointegration relationships allowing for regime shifts. To test for these kinds of changing long‐run relationships we propose the use of a residual‐based Dickey–Fuller class of statistic that accounts for one structural break. We show that consistent estimates of the break fraction can be obtained through the minimization of the sum of squared residuals when there is I(2) cointegration. The finite sample performance of the proposed statistic is investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. The econometric methodology is applied to assess whether the US fiscal deficit and debt are sustainable. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Financial Support from the Family Network and Illegal Immigration

Barriers to immigration of low‐skilled workers from developing countries into the advanced countries prevent many potential migrants from leaving their countries of origin. With very low home‐country wages in relation to the cost of undocumented migration, the opportunity to migrate often hinges on the possibility of obtaining credit from a human smuggling organization or family and friends. This paper examines the conditions under which migration is optimal for an individual who lacks liquid assets, with a focus on alternative options for financing migration costs. One is by accumulating the required amount of savings out of source‐country income, with or without financial support from the family or social network. The other is debt‐bonded migration, which involves borrowing from a smuggling organization and paying off the loan while working in the host country. I find that greater financial support from the family network increases the attractiveness of debt‐bonded relative to self‐financed migration.     

Great Recession and Macroeconomic Theory: A Useless Crisis?

ABSTRACT

The global financial crisis of 2007–08 and the subsequent Great Recession have pushed many economists to acknowledge a fundamental limit in the theoretical models elaborated after the monetarist counter-revolution: these models disregard the financial system. The years following the Great Recession have thus been marked by the development of what can be called the ‘Financial Frictions Approach’, a theoretical approach based on the addition of the financial system to the New Keynesian DSGE model. The results of this line of research are beginning to appear also in macroeconomics textbooks. Significant examples are the publication of the seventh edition of Blanchard’s textbook, and the publication of the third edition of the textbook co-authored by Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi. The objective of this work is twofold: (i) to show that the new model presented by Blanchard, Amighini and Giavazzi, which reflects the results of the ‘Financial Frictions Approach’, does not allow to elaborate a coherent explanation of the Great Recession and (ii) to present the pillars of an alternative theoretical model based on the lessons of Keynes, Schumpeter and Minsky.