Informed Traders and Price Variations in the Betting Market for Professional Basketball Games

This paper examines betting line changes from the opening to the closing of the point spread betting market on National Basketball Association games for evidence of informed trader betting. We show that within-betting period line changes significantly improve the accuracy of betting lines as forecasts of game outcomes. We examine individual line change magnitudes and show that these are directly and proportionately related to biases in opening lines. Further, line changes are of sufficient magnitude to remove these biases by the close of betting. We interpret these results as evidence that informed traders are influential in this market.     

Economics at the Antitrust Division: 2017–2018

This article describes some of the work of Antitrust Division economists over the past year, with a focus on modeling. It begins by illustrating the mapping from evidence to prediction using tools for assessing the effects of mergers using Bertrand, Cournot, and auction models. It then turns to two hot topics in competition policy: the implications of claims of increasing margins for merger enforcement and the validity of claims of increasing concentration. Finally, it considers how mergers affect prices in bargaining models.     

The challenge of program evaluation: When increasing program participation decreases the relative well-being of participants

Two goals of food assistance programs are to improve well-being and to increase participation among those in need. Progress in meeting the first goal can be measured by the difference in well-being between participants and eligible non-participants. This gap in well-being though can be affected by progress made toward the second goal of increasing participation rates. In particular, if those with the lowest levels of well-being disproportionately enter the program, the gap can increase. To examine whether this tension between goals exists empirically, we consider the case of the Food Stamp Program and its effect on food insecurity in the United States, using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). In particular, we use variation in State policies (the change in administrative error rates and the combined value of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and food stamp benefits) to analyze whether increasing participation rates leads to increases in the difference in food insecurity rates. Controlling for other factors, we find evidence of the tension between these two program goals insofar as States with policies which encourage participation have higher differences in the food insecurity rates of participants and non-participants.     

The relationship between corporate social responsibility and shareholder value: an empirical test of the risk management hypothesis

Do shareholders gain when managers disperse corporate resources through activities classified as corporate social responsibility (CSR)? Strategy scholars have recently developed a theoretical model that links such activities to shareholder value when a firm suffers a negative event; we test key portions of this theory of the ‘insurance‐like’ property of CSR activity. We posit that such activity leads to positive attributions from stakeholders, who then temper their negative judgments and sanctions toward firms because of this goodwill. We extend the risk management model by theorizing that some types of CSR activities will be more likely to create goodwill and offer insurance‐like protection than other types. We delineate several firm and event specific characteristics that we expect to influence the link between CSR activities and an insurance effect. We then test our model using an event study of 178 negative legal/regulatory actions against firms throughout the 11 years from 1993–2003. We find that participation in institutional CSR activities—those aimed at a firm's secondary stakeholders or society at large—provides an ‘insurance‐like’ benefit, while participation in technical CSRs—those activities targeting a firm's trading partners—yields no such benefits. We conclude by considering the implications of our findings for future theorizing and research into the economic value of CSR engagement. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Asset allocation and age effects in retirement savings choices

We examine the asset allocation decisions of members of three large Australian retirement savings funds. Superannuation Guarantee legislation in 1992 made Australian employees compulsory investors by requiring employers to contribute a fixed proportion of earnings to a superannuation fund on behalf of employees. A majority of these employees can choose an investment strategy for these contributions. We examine how actual investment strategy and asset allocation choices of members change with age in view of the conventional wisdom that individuals allocate less to risky assets as they age and investments theory which provides conflicting advice on the issue.     

Intangible assets and value relevance: Evidence from the Portuguese stock exchange

We assess the value relevance of the amounts for identifiable intangible assets and goodwill reported in the financial statements of all non-finance companies listed on the main market of the Portuguese Stock Exchange from 1998 to 2008. Additionally, we use panel data to explore the impact on value relevance of Portugal’s formal adoption of International Accounting Standards [IAS] and International Financial Reporting Standards [IFRS] in 2005. A distinctive feature of the accounting by our sample companies is that when they adopted IAS 38 and IFRS 3 in 2005, they were no longer required to recognise some intangible assets (such as start-up costs and research expenditures) and were no longer required to amortise goodwill.We find that net earnings, reported goodwill and other intangible assets are highly significantly associated with stock price. However, whereas earnings are related positively to stock prices when Portuguese Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) were applied prior to 2005, the value relevance of earnings appears to have declined after the adoption of IAS/IFRS in 2005. Although the change to IAS/IFRS had no impact on the value relevance of identifiable intangibles as a whole, the evidence suggests that there was a positive effect on the value relevance of goodwill. When the subclasses of identifiable intangible assets are considered, we found evidence of an increase in value relevance of goodwill, other intangible assets, and research and development expenditures.     

Flood Hazards and Urban Housing Markets: The Effects of Katrina on New Orleans

This study examines the impacts on consumers’ willingness to pay for certain characteristics of housing in greater New Orleans before and after the flooding of Hurricane Katrina. Single-family home sales from January 2004 to August 2006 are collected and used in a hedonic price function to estimate the changes in the value of amenities, and structural, neighborhood and geographic characteristics, including the mean elevation of each property. Elevation, which buyers did not know for certain prior to the storm, but may now be inferred from water level marks in most neighborhoods, is found to have a positive relationship with selling prices. Results indicate that pre-Katrina, there was a premium of only 1.4% per foot in flood-prone areas, and was insignificant in areas not subject to flooding. This increased to 4.6% for flooded areas after Katrina. These findings are attributed to not only the perceived risk of flooding, but also to the potential of higher compliance costs associated with rebuilding under more stringent National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) guidelines.     

Designs for estimating an extremal point of quadratic regression models in a hyperball

This paper is devoted to studying optimal designs for estimating an extremal point of a multivariate quadratic regression model in the unit hyperball. The problem of estimating an extremal point is reduced to that of estimating certain parameters of a corresponding nonlinear (in parameters) regression model. For this reduced problem truncated locally D-optimal designs are found in an explicit form. The result is a generalization of the results of Fedorov and Müller (1997) for onedimensional quadratic regression function in the unit segment. Received February 2002     

Institutional Change of Accounting Systems: The Adoption of a Regime of Adapted International Financial Reporting Standards

Richard Mattessich, New York: Garland Publishing (New Works in Accounting History), 2000, £43.00, xii +179pp. ISBN: 0-8153-3445-1     

Antecedents and consequences of the perceived adjustment of Japanese expatriates in the USA

The present study was designed to better understand the antecedents and consequences of expatriate adjustment in an international assignment. The researchers surveyed Japanese expatriates assigned to the United States. Structural equation modeling was utilized to test our hypotheses and model. The results indicated that previous knowledge of the host country, language proficiency, willingness to communicate and perception of the novelty of the host culture were differentially related to expatriates' adjustment to the host country. General and work adjustments were negatively related to expatriates' intent to return early. In addition, interrelationships among the adjustment dimensions were examined and the results indicated that general adjustment leads to work adjustment, which, in turn, influences interactional adjustment. Implications for future research are presented.