Aggregation bias, compositional change, and the border effect

Borders affect the composition, not only the level, of interregional trade. In disaggregated U.S. Commodity Flow data, border effects vary substantially across commodities. Substantial border–induced compositional change suggests the possibility that standard estimates suffer from aggregation bias arising from endogenous industry location patterns and the presence of zero observations in commodity–level trade. Adjusting for these effects reduces the estimate of the aggregate border effect from 20.9 to 5.7. JEL Classification: F14, F15
Biais d'agrégation, changement de composition, et effet de frontières. Les frontières affectent la composition et pas seulement le volume de commerce inter-régional. Une analyse des données désagrégées des flux de commerce de biens des Etats-Unis montre que l'effet de frontières varie substantiellement selon les biens. Le changement de composition du commerce engendré par les frontières suggère la possibilité que les estimations usuelles souffrent d'un biais d'agrégation résultant des patterns de localisation industrielle endogènes et de la présence d'observations nulles dans le commerce de certains biens. Un ajustement pour tenir compte de ces effets suggère que les effets de frontières passent de 20.9 à 5.7.     

The effect of the 2007 ethanol mandate on downside risk in agriculture: evidence from Kansas farmers

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 increased the amount of corn ethanol that must be blended into motor vehicle and other fuels as part of the renewable fuel standard. The purpose of this article is to look at how the increase in demand for corn influenced the profitability and downside risk of farms. We conducted this investigation using annual data for more than 300 farms in Kansas from 1997 through 2014. We find that the probability of a farmer’s experiencing a negative return on equity (i.e. the ‘downside risk’ of farming) decreased by 25 percentage points after 2007.     

Healthcare costs of stroke and major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation treated with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants

Objective: To assess long-term healthcare costs related to ischemic stroke and systemic embolism (stroke/SE) and major bleeding (MB) events in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) treated with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs).

Materials and methods: Optum’s Clinformatics Data Mart database from 1/2009–12/2016 was analyzed. Adult patients with ≥1 stroke/SE hospitalization (index date) were matched 1:1 to patients without stroke/SE (random index date), based on propensity scores. Patients with an MB event were matched to patients without MB. All patients had an NOAC dispensing overlapping index date, ≥12?months of eligibility pre-index date, and ≥1 NVAF diagnosis. The observation period spanned from the index date until the earliest date of death, switch to warfarin, end of insurance coverage, or end of data availability. Mean costs were evaluated: (1) per-patient-per-year (PPPY) and (2) at 1, 2, 3, and 4?years using Lin's method.

Results: The cost differences were, respectively, $48,807 and $28,298 PPPY for NOAC users with stroke/SE (n?=?1,340) and those with MB (n?=?3,774) events compared to controls. Cost differences of patients with vs without stroke/SE were $49,876, $51,627, $57,822, and $60,691 at 1, 2, 3, and 4?years post-index, respectively (p?p?Limitations: Limitations include unobserved confounders, coding and/or billing inaccuracies, limited sample sizes over longer follow-up, and the under-reporting of mortality for deaths occurring after 2011.

Conclusions: The incremental healthcare costs incurred by patients with vs without stroke/SE was nearly twice as high as those of patients with vs without MB. Moreover, each additional year up to 4?years after the first event was associated with an incremental cost for patients with a stroke/SE or MB event compared to those without an event.     

Government guarantees and self-fulfilling speculative attacks

We develop a model in which government guarantees to banks’ foreign creditors are a root cause of self-fulfilling twin banking-currency crises. Absent guarantees, such crises are not possible. In the presence of guarantees banks borrow foreign currency, lend domestic currency and do not hedge the resulting exchange rate risk. With guarantees, banks will also renege on their foreign debts and declare bankruptcy when a devaluation occurs. We assume that the government is unable or unwilling to fully fund the resulting bailout via an explicit fiscal reform. These features of our model imply that government guarantees lead to self-fulfilling banking-currency crises.     

Public interest versus regulatory capture in the Swedish electricity market

This article tests the public interest and regulatory capture hypotheses, in the context of the Swedish electricity market, by studying the factors influencing the Swedish Energy Agency’s decision to replace decision-makers it employs to hear customer complaints against utilities. The study covers the period from the beginning of 1996, when a series of regulatory reforms were introduced to improve consumer protection, until the end of 2008. The study concludes that decision-makers who find in favor of customers have had a statistically lower probability of being removed, consistent with public interest theory. A transitory effect of favoring utilities can be observed for the period from 2 to 6 years following the reforms. In this period, government and public scrutiny of the regulator, which had been high in the immediate aftermath of the reforms, had waned and there were few precedents decided by the courts that the regulator was required to follow. This vacuum created an opportunity for the utilities to increase their influence over the regulator. Once the courts started establishing precedents in relatively large numbers, the supervisory role of the courts ensured that the actions of the regulator were scrutinized. This development has served a similar function to government and public scrutiny in the years immediately following the reforms in promoting the public interest.     

On the relationship between female labour force participation and fertility in G7 countries: evidence from panel cointegration and Granger causality

This article examines the relationship between the female labour force participation rate and total fertility rate for the G7 countries from 1960 to 2006 using panel unit root, panel cointegration, Granger causality and long-run structural estimation. The article’s main findings are that the female labour force participation rate and total fertility rate are cointegrated for the panel of G7 countries; that long-run Granger causality runs from the total fertility rate to the female labour force participation rate and that a 1% increase in the total fertility rate results in a 0.4% decrease in the female labour force participation rate for the G7 countries.     

The xistence of definitional economics--Stigler's and Leibenstein's war of the words

The inability to agree on definitions ultimately can condemneconomic analysis and debate to fruitless argumentation. Thesharp interchange between Stigler and Leibenstein did littleto clarify the issues surrounding the controversial theory ofX-efficiency. Given their conflicting agendas, discussion betweenthese two opponents consisted largely of talking at cross purposes.This paper examines the motivations of the two protagonistsas well as considering the impact such tactics have on economicdebate and discussion.     

Accounting for optimism and pessimism in expected utility

We provide a preference foundation for decision under risk resulting in a model where probability weighting is linear as long as the corresponding probabilities are not extreme (i.e., 0 or 1). This way, most of the elegance and mathematical tractability of expected utility is maintained and also much of its normative foundation. Yet, the new model can accommodate the extreme sensitivity towards changes from 0 to almost impossible and from almost certain to 1 that has widely been documented in the experimental literature. The model can be viewed as “expected utility with the best and worst in mind” as suggested by Chateauneuf, Eichberger and Grant (Chateauneuf, Alain, Eichberger, Jürgen, Grant, Simon, 2007. Choice under uncertainty with the best and worst in mind: NEO-Additive capacities. Journal of Economic Theory 137, 538–567) or, following our preference foundation, interpreted as “expected utility with consistent optimism and pessimism”.     

The timing of final charitable bequest decisions

• Understanding the timing of final charitable bequest decisions permits nonprofits to co‐ordinate their marketing efforts to correspond with donor decision‐making. Using probate data from Australia and longitudinal survey data from the USA, this paper seeks to identify the timing of decisions that resulted in realized charitable bequests. We find evidence that charitable transfers result mostly from decisions that occur during the last 5 years of life and at the oldest ages. Charitable plans made earlier in life are often discarded.

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