The long-run Phillips curve and non-stationary inflation

Modern theories of inflation incorporate a vertical long-run Phillips curve and are usually estimated using techniques that ignore the non-stationary behaviour of inflation. Consequently, the estimates obtained are imprecise and unable to test the veracity of a vertical long-run Phillips curve. We estimate a Phillips curve model taking into account the non-stationary properties in inflation and identify a small but significant positive relationship between inflation and unemployment. The results also provide some evidence that the trade-off between inflation and the rate of unemployment in the short-run worsens as the mean rate of inflation increases.     

‘I’ve been to Bali too’ (and I will be going back): are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?

International visitor arrivals to Bali are examined using univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain if shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The univariate LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks fail to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in international visitor arrivals to Bali. However, the panel LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks applied to a panel of Bali's 11 major source markets reject the null and support the alternative hypothesis of a joint trend-stationary series with transitory shocks. This result suggests that, the effects of the recent terrorist acts on Bali on the growth path of tourist arrivals from major markets are only transitory and that as a consequence Bali's tourism sector is sustainable in the long run.     

Quantal response equilibria with heterogeneous agents

This paper introduces a model of quantal response equilibrium with heterogeneous agents and demonstrates the existence of a representative agent for such populations. Except in rare cases, the representative agent?s noise terms cannot be independently and identically distributed across the set of actions, even if that is assumed for the individual agents. This result demonstrates a fundamental difference between a representative agent and truly heterogeneous quantal responders and suggests that when fitting quantal response specifications to aggregate data from a population of subjects, the noise terms should be allowed to be jointly dependent across actions. Even though this introduces additional degrees of freedom, it makes the model well specified. The representative agent inherits a regular quantal response function from the actual agents, so this model does impose falsifiable restrictions.     

Share contracts and macroeconomic externalities

Weitzman's analysis of the share economy contrasts fixed-wage and fixed-share contracts; this paper notes that neither is an optimal labor contract, rendering the comparison suspect. Given this comparison, though, share contracts may be superior to wage contracts in an economy characterized by a “macroeconomic externality,” whereby firm-level employment decisions affect the demand for other firms' goods.     

The non-productive entrepreneurial process

A large literature explores the importance of entrepreneurship as the catalyst of economic progress. In contrast, this paper argues that entrepreneurs are the driver of economic stagnation. We analyze the non-productive entrepreneurial process and discuss three channels through which non-productive activities have a multiplier effect culminating in economic decline and stagnation. Drawing on examples of non-productive entrepreneurship from both underdeveloped and developed countries, we provide insight into why economic stagnation persists in the former and why economic decline can occur in the latter.     

Hidden patterns in exchange rate regime choice

There have been a number of empirical attempts to account for variation in exchange rate regime choice, but these attempts point in several directions and are not made sense of easily. One reason for the differences among studies is that standard statistical techniques are unable to identify the nonlinear and contingent relationships among the factors that influence the choice of exchange rate regime. This article utilizes a statistical technique that reveals complex nonlinear interactions among variables. The analysis reveals that the influence of past inflation acts to condition the influence of labor market rigidity and that political stability plays a key role for both high and low inflation countries.     

Computing,the bootstrap and economics

A major contention in this paper is that scientific models can be viewed as virtual realities, implemented, or rendered, by mathematical equations or by computer simulations. Their purpose is to help us understand the external reality that they model. In economics, particularly in econometrics, models make use of random elements, so as to provide quantitatively for phenomena that we cannot or do not wish to model explicitly. By varying the realizations of the random elements in a simulation, it is possible to study counterfactual outcomes, which are necessary for any discussion of causality. The bootstrap is virtual reality within an outer reality. The principle of the bootstrap is that, if its virtual reality mimics as closely as possible the reality that contains it, it can be used to study aspects of that outer reality. The idea of bootstrap iteration is explored, and a discrete model discussed that allows investigators to perform iteration to any desired level.     

Mortgage product diversity: responding to consumer demand or protecting lender profit? An asymmetric panel analysis

This article explores determinants of mortgage product diversity for owner-occupied and investment loans in the Australian housing mortgage market. From 2001 to 2012, 65 lenders introduced 1220 mortgage products in Australia. We examine whether the product proliferation was a result of consumer demand or a response to pressure to lower lending rates. We find that consumer demand for mortgages does not have a significant relationship with the number of mortgage products, but that decreases in the policy interest rate are highly significant as an explanatory variable for product proliferation. Such behaviour is consistent with information obfuscation, reducing the ease with which consumers can compare lending rates. Further, the relationship between mortgage products offered and the policy interest rate is asymmetric: decreases in the cash rate are associated with increased mortgage products offered, but increases in the cash rate have a more muted effect on decreasing the number of products.