Last dance or second chance? Firm performance,CEO career horizon,and the separation of board leadership roles

In recent years, many firms have chosen to separate their CEO and board chair positions. Prior research has demonstrated that there are three forms that a CEO–board chair separation can take: apprentice, departure, and demotion. In this paper, we examine the antecedents of these three types. Our results show that the three types of separation each have different profiles in terms of the prior performance of the firm, the independence of the board, and the career horizon of the incumbent CEO. The findings in this paper provide unique insights into the factors that drive boards' structural choices. As questions about board leadership structure become more nuanced and more relevant in both scholarship and practice, a full understanding of these factors will only become more important. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

‘Market failure’ arguments are a poor guide to policy

‘Market failure’ is frequently offered as a justification for government intervention in the economy. Proponents of interventions can point to almost limitless examples of markets which do not meet all the criteria for Pareto optimality and argue that government taxation, subsidies or regulation can perfect them, maximising social welfare. But comparing market outcomes with an unattainable and unidentifiable ideal is not useful in a world of imperfect knowledge and government failure. It is better to compare market outcomes against realistic alternatives. Furthermore, even within the market failure paradigm, concepts such as ‘public goods’ and ‘negative externalities’ are routinely misunderstood and inconsistently applied. This leads to predictably poor policy outcomes.     

What Do Bettors Want? Determinants of Pari‐Mutuel Betting Preference

A bstract .   This paper is an analysis of the demand for thoroughbred racetrack wagers, examining evidence that would support the existence of two types of bettors: the risk-averse informed bettor versus the uninformed bettor. Looking at 12 major racetracks over the fall of 2002, we undertake an empirical examination of the determinants of bettors' preferences for particular wagers on specific races. The goal is to try to determine what individual aspects of a race (conditions, surface, participants, etc.) will encourage increased wagering dollars. With the advent of simulcasting, the competition for the wagering dollar is fierce, as the bettor can choose from more than 100 races daily, each race offering numerous betting options. We find for most wagers that higher quality participants, larger and more competitive fields, and turf races increase betting volume while higher pari-mutuel takeout, poor track conditions, and other races run concurrently reduce volume. However, more competitive fields reduce betting volume in the show and trifecta pools. Optimal field size is determined to be between 10 and 12 betting interests. Overall, we find support for the existence of a significant share of risk-averse informed bettors.     

Information in stock prices: the case of the 2016 U.S. presidential election

On the day before the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the odds of Hillary Clinton winning the presidency, according to political prediction markets, were above 90%. Surprisingly, Donald Trump won the Electoral College handily. In this study, we examine how movements in specific stock prices foreshadowed the eventual outcome. Specifically, we conduct a series of standard event-study tests focused on pharmaceutical companies, which became a focal point during the presidential campaign. Results show that while stocks of pharmaceutical companies significantly underperformed the market prior to the election, prices substantially increased beginning three days before the election outcome. This increase is both statistically significant and economically meaningful and robust to various event-study methodologies. These results suggest that some sectors of the stock market seemed to anticipate the election outcome.     

Bilateral and Third‐Country Exchange Rate Effects on Multinational Activity

In an earlier paper, we showed that bilateral exchange rates are important determinants of multinational activity of both the US and Japan and that increases in the bilateral and third‐country exchange rates exert opposing effects on bilateral multinational activity. Furthermore, the signs of the exchange rate coefficients differ between Japan and the US. In this paper, we formulate a three‐country model with coexisting exporters and multinational firms that engage in Cournot competition to rationalize these effects. In this model, we identify two counteracting effects which govern the bilateral and third‐country effects of an exchange rate increase on bilateral multinational activity. Our theoretical framework is flexible enough to explain the Japanese as well as the US patterns of exchange rate effects and it allows us to identify those factors that are responsible for the respective differences.     

Determinants of Canadian bilateral aid allocations: humanitarian,commercial or political?

Abstract.  In this paper we examine the determinants of the allocation of Canadian bilateral aid over the period 1984–2000. We draw on models of donor behaviour that allow us to incorporate humanitarian, commercial and political considerations – the 'trinity of mixed motives'– that affect Canadian aid. We find that allocations are moderately altruistic. Recipient country human rights and membership in the Commonwealth and La Francophonie also affect aid flows. Most strikingly, our results suggest that Canadian aid flows became less altruistic over this period and commercial motives became increasingly important. JEL Classification: H50, O10     

A Framework for Reconsidering the Lake Wobegon Effect

The Lake Wobegon Effect (LWE) describes the potential measurement-error bias introduced into survey-based analyses of education issues. Although this effect potentially applies to any student-report variable, the systematic overreporting of academic achievements such as grade point average is often of preeminent concern. This concern can be easily circumvented if official records data are available; however, many researchers can only access student-reported data. In this article, the authors examine whether using student-survey data in place of official records data meaningfully biases regression estimates. They motivate their contribution by noting a useful statistical feature of overreporting on bounded variables such as grade point average. Specifically, the misreports will be negatively correlated with the true grade point average, yielding a form of nonclassical measurement error that actually counteracts the bias. The authors connect this observation to reliability ratios used in labor economics, which are simple ways to adjust for attenuation bias, when needed. In two applications, we find that it is unnecessary to correct for the LWE bias because it is so small.     

Size and information revelation in securities trading

We examine differences in information content between order submission sizes and trade sizes by U.S. equity traders. Increasing (decreasing) order submission (trade) size is reflective of information. The result suggests that better-informed traders want to trade in a large size, but that they engage in stealth trading practices or break larger orders into smaller sizes in order to conceal information. While prior studies tend to narrowly focus on trade executions at the market-centre level, our findings indicate that order submission size varies significantly from trade size and that both sizes are informative about future prices, albeit in an inverse manner.     

Real-world utilization of molecular diagnostic testing and matched drug therapies in the treatment of metastatic cancers

Aims: To assess the frequency of biopsies and molecular diagnostic testing (human DNA/RNA analysis), anti-cancer drug use (genomically-matched targeted therapy [GMTT], unmatched targeted therapy [UTT], endocrine therapy [ET], and chemotherapy [CT]), and medical service costs among adults with metastatic cancer.

Methods: Adults diagnosed with metastatic breast, non-small cell lung (NSCLC), colorectal, head and neck, ovarian, and uterine cancer (2010Q1–2015Q1) were identified in the OptumHealth Care Solutions claims database and followed from first metastatic diagnosis for ≥1 month and until the end of data availability. Utilization was assessed for each cancer cohort (all and patients aged ≥65 years); per-patient-per-month (PPPM) medical service costs were assessed for all patients. Testing frequency estimates were applied to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program data to estimate the number of untested patients (2010–2014).

Results: Patients with metastatic cancer (n?=?8,193; breast [n?=?3,414], NSCLC [n?=?2,231], colorectal [n?=?1,611], head and neck [n?=?511], ovarian [n?=?275], and uterine [n?=?151]) were 63 years old (mean), with 11.1–22.2 months of observation. Biopsy and molecular diagnostic testing frequencies ranged from 7% (uterine) to 73% (ovarian), and from 34% (head and neck) to 52% (breast), respectively. Few were treated with GMTT (breast, 11%; NSCLC, 9%; colorectal, 6%). Treatment with UTT ranged from 0.7% (uterine) to 21% (colorectal). Biopsy, diagnostic testing, and anti-cancer drug therapy were less frequent for those ≥65 years. Medical service costs (PPPM, mean) ranged from $6,618 (head and neck) to $9,940 (ovarian). The estimated number of untested new patients with metastatic cancer was 636,369 (all) and 341,397 (≥65).

Limitations: In addition to the limitations of claims analyses, diagnostic testing frequency may be under-estimated if patients underwent testing prior to study inclusion.

Conclusions: The low frequency of molecular diagnostic testing suggests there are opportunities to better inform management of patients with advanced cancer, particularly decisions to treat with GMTT.     

“Following” or “attracting” the customer? Japanese Banking FDI in Europe

Using firm-level Japanese FDI data on investment into 18 European countries between 1970–2000 in all industries (banking, manufacturing, wholesale/retail distribution, and business services), this study examines if the “follow the customer” (FTC) hypothesis holds for firm-level data. The results suggest that banks do follow their customers into a foreign market, as part of a larger strategy that goes beyond the FTC theory. The firm level data show that the majority of FDI into a host country occurs after the foreign bank has established operations. Policy implications of this finding include the suggestion that host economies liberalize their financial sector early in an effort to attract banking FDI which then will attract non-banking FDI rather than the reverse.