Estimating financial distress likelihood

This study develops an ex-ante model for estimating financial distress likelihood (FDL), and contributes to the literature by presenting a financially-based definition of distress that is independent of its legal consequences, a theoretically supported model for the FDL, and an appropriate methodology that uses panel data to eliminate the unobservable heterogeneity. The model is then estimated cross-sectionally to obtain an indicator of the likelihood of financial distress that incorporates the specificity of each company. In doing so, this study provides a well-specified model that is stable in terms of magnitude, sign and significance of the coefficients and, more importantly, that yields a measure of the FDL that is more robust to time and the international context than the estimates of FDL that are based on seminal models. This measure could be appropriate for use in future research that deals with FDL, such as capital structure and the prevention of financial distress.     

MACROECONOMIC LINKAGES IN MEXICO

The authors study the effects of selected macro variables on output in Mexico, following a Kaleckian framework, and using a probabilistic approach to econometrics. They find a strong positive effect of US GDP, of protection of the domestic market and of government expenditure, on Mexico's GDP, and a negative influence of higher exchange rate and credit rationing. Their results support the overall outlook proposed by the post Keynesian and the Latin American Structuralist schools of economic thought, and reject the Washington Consensus type of policies Mexico has been following during the last decades.     

Customer behavior in electronic commerce: The moderating effect of e-purchasing experience

This study analyzes the perceptions which induce customers to purchase over the Internet, testing the moderating effect of e-purchasing experience. We distinguish between two groups: (1) potential e-customers, who are considering making their first e-purchase, and (2) experienced e-customers, who have made at least one e-purchase and are thinking about continuing to do so. The perceptions that induce individuals to purchase online for the first time may not be the same as those that produce repurchasing behavior. Our findings demonstrate that customer behavior does not remain stable because the experience acquired from past e-purchases means that perceptions evolve. The relationships between perceptions of e-commerce change with purchasing experience, whilst the influence of Internet experience is stable for all users. The implications are especially interesting for e-commerce providers whose business models depend on e-customer behavior.     

The Economic Impacts of Newly Irrigated Areas in the Ebro Valley

This paper uses regional input-output tables to analyse the long-term impact resulting from the implementation of the newly irrigated areas provided for under the terms of the Ebro Basin Hydrological Plan. We have described the whole process by way of two consecutive stages. In the first, where the final demand is fixed, we use a demand-driven input-output model and we incorporate technical change through the reduction of the coefficients. In the second, the output of all sectors increases, with the increases in the vector of output being proportional to the forward linkages vector of the Agriculture sector. In this stage, our objective is to obtain a final demand vector that ensures that the agricultural value added increases to a prescribed value of v 1 *. Whilst the results demonstrate the positive effects of the transformation, they also reveal effects of a very different character in each sector. Thus, the Agriculture, Livestock and Agri-food industry sectors show significant increases in their gross outputs caused by the forward effects, whilst the Energy, Metal and Chemicals sectors reduce their outputs. These results shed light on the contradictory nature of the processes of development and technical change.     

Growth,profits and foreign ownership in the Brazilian banking industry

The deregulation of the financial markets and their progressive globalization has favoured the internationalization of banking. Moreover, during the international financial crisis, the presence of foreign banks has increased in countries experiencing faster economic growth, such as Brazil. In this context, the aim of this study is to analyze the growth and profitability of the financial institutions in Brazil, taking into account the possible non-linearity of the relationship, the differences between Brazilian and foreign institutions and the effect of the crisis. Our results indicate that the entry of foreign institutions has a direct effect on the Brazilian banking industry.     

Innovation, cycles and growth

The purpose of this paper is to present a model of growth with endogenous fluctuations. The main feature of our model is that it throws light on the relationships between long waves and business cycles in the economy. The driving forces in the model work in this way: endogenous R&D investment creates new cumulative knowledge. When this knowledge reaches a threshold H*, radical innovations occur which generate productivity growth via the substitution of old capital with new capital. These disruptive events appear recurrently, generating long waves and revitalizing the growth process. Short-term cycles in the model come from the interactions between these innovation-driven transformations and certain prey-predator mechanisms that involve the labor market. We find that our model presents excellent properties: the model generates endogenous cyclical growth as a disequilibrium process; persistent and irregular short cycles appear interwoven with the long waves; and there is a strong significant interaction between both kinds of fluctuations.     

The Puzzle of Persistently Negative Interest‐Rate–Growth Differentials: Financial Repression or Income Catch‐Up?

The interest‐rate–growth differential (IRGD) plays a critical role in determining the sustainability of government debt. Yet it is striking that IRGDs are correlated with income levels, and are generally negative in emerging and developing economies, which contradicts standard economic theory. Negative IRGDs constitute a powerful debt‐stabilising force, driving down debt ratios or keeping them stable even in the presence of persistent primary deficits. Motivated by the puzzling facts, this paper examines the IRGDs for a large panel of advanced and non‐advanced economies by utilising a newly assembled data set. The evidence shows that large negative IRGDs in emerging and developing economies are largely due to real interest rates well below market equilibrium – stemming from financial repression and captive and distorted markets – whereas the income catch‐up process plays a relatively modest role. Therefore, the IRGD in non‐advanced economies is likely to rise with financial market development and financial global integration, perhaps even before their GDP per capita converges to advanced‐economy levels.     

Parsimonious Models of Financial Insolvency in Small Companies

This study is an extension of current research on insolvency diagnosis. We intend to demonstrate that in small firms, the relevant information for the preventive diagnosis of insolvency can be synthesised in a model built upon a more reduced number of economic and financial ratios than the ones generally used in this kind of study. Our approach produces parsimonious models that can extract information from publicly available accounting-financial data. We demonstrate that using an extensive exploratory stage that will monitor the effects of correlation between financial variables, we will be able to build relatively stable models with a small set of variables.The results of the models built by resorting to discriminant analysis and to logistic regression present a similar accuracy to models previously developed. Our models present the advantage of including a small number of variables that can be interpreted in the light of current financial theory and therefore it reduces the number of financial data needed to make an insolvency diagnosis. This is particularly decisive when working in an environment of restricted information availability, which is very common in small companies.     

Ownership structure and firm value: new evidence from Spain

This paper provides new evidence on the way in which ownership influences firm value. Unlike previous studies, the empirical evidence obtained from our ownership concentration model supports not only the monitoring but also the expropriation effects. Additionally, the insider ownership model provides results that confirm the convergence‐of‐interest and the entrenchment effects, even though Spanish insiders get entrenched at higher ownership levels than their U.S. and U.K. counterparts. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does Family and Lone Founder Involvement Lead to Similar Indebtedness?

This study evaluates whether the presence of a lone founder and family involvement impact private firms’ leverage differently from a methodological view. Using a sample of 4,102 private firms in Spain and taking under consideration a panel data structure from 2006 to 2013, we find that lone founder and family involvement matter in capital structure decisions and size shapes the forementioned influence. Our findings show that lone founder involvement always implies higher debt than the rest of firms and suggest that firms with genuine family involvement are significantly low debt companies.