Which CEO Characteristics and Abilities Matter?

We exploit a unique data set to study individual characteristics of CEO candidates for companies involved in buyout and venture capital transactions and relate these characteristics to subsequent corporate performance. CEO candidates vary along two primary dimensions: one that captures general ability and another that contrasts communication and interpersonal skills with execution skills. We find that subsequent performance is positively related to general ability and execution skills. The findings expand our view of CEO characteristics and types relative to previous studies.     

Exploring the Nature of “Trader Intuition”

Experimental evidence has consistently confirmed the ability of uninformed traders, even novices, to infer information from the trading process. After contrasting brain activation in subjects watching markets with and without insiders, we hypothesize that Theory of Mind (ToM) helps explain this pattern, where ToM refers to the human capacity to discern malicious or benevolent intent. We find that skill in predicting price changes in markets with insiders correlates with scores on two ToM tests. We document GARCH‐like persistence in transaction price changes that may help investors read markets when there are insiders.     

CAP Forum on Enron: What If Andersen Had Shredded in Toronto or Calgary? The Potential Criminal Liability of Canadian Public Accounting Firms*

Both Canadians and Americans often assume that the legal system, like many other aspects of society, works the same in both countries. Just as these assumptions often fail to stand up to detailed scrutiny, so too may the assumption that Arthur Andersen LLP could have been charged with and convicted of obstruction of justice in Canada. In this paper, we examine the hypothetical question of what would have happened if a public accounting firm had shredded documents, fearing a provincial securities regulatory investigation in Toronto or Calgary. We examine the key differences between both the law and the institutional environment in Canada and the United States to determine whether such a prosecution could occur in Canada. We find that the letter of the law would probably have resulted in a successful prosecution. However, because of differences in the institutional environments, a criminal prosecution of a Canadian public accounting firm would probably never have occurred. The implications of this conclusion are discussed.     

An Analysis of Insiders' Use of Prepaid Variable Forward Transactions

This study examines firm performance surrounding insiders' prepaid variable forward (PVF) transactions to infer insiders' information when they enter these off‐market contracts. PVFs allow insiders to hedge downside risk, share performance gains, and obtain immediate large‐sum cash payments for investment or consumption. On average, PVF transactions cover 30% of a sample insider's firm‐specific wealth ($22 million), which is substantially larger than a typical open‐market sale. PVFs systematically follow strong firm performance and precede degraded stock and earnings performance. PVFs also precede periods of negative abnormal returns relative to potential alternative investments. The documented association between PVFs and performance declines does not appear to result from the market's response to transaction disclosure, participant self‐selection, or general price reversals. Thus, evidence suggests that insiders use PVFs to diversify firm‐specific holdings in anticipation of performance declines.     

STATE‐LEVEL CAPITAL AND INVESTMENT: UPDATES AND IMPLICATIONS

This paper presents state‐by‐state capital stock and gross investment estimates for 1990–2007. I follow the methodology of Garofalo and Yamarik (The Review of Economics and Statistics, 84, 2002, 316–23) and apportion the national capital stock to the individual states using one‐digit NAICS income data. I then test the soundness of the data by estimating a Cobb–Douglas production function and a Solow growth model using a variety of panel data estimators. Under both models, I obtain estimates of the output elasticity for capital that are plausible and close to the observed national income share of one‐third. (JEL O47, O51, R11)     

Initial Evidence on the Role of Accounting Earnings in the Bond Market

We document that: (1) the incidence of bond trade increases during the days surrounding earnings announcements, (2) there is a bond‐price reaction to the announcement of earnings, and (3) there is a positive association between annual bond returns and both annual changes in earnings and annual analysts' forecast errors. All of these effects are larger when earnings convey bad news or when the underlying bond is more risky. Taken together, our results suggest that the nonlinear payoff structure of bond securities affects the role of accounting earnings in the bond market.     

Transiting to Work: The Role of Private Transportation for Low‐Income Households

This study examines the role of reliable vehicles in facilitating employment, using a new data set, the Iowa Transportation and Employment Survey. The empirical results document significantly higher levels of transportation problems and human capital barriers among low‐income households compared to other households and among low‐income nonworking adults compared to their employed counterparts. The multivariate analysis of low‐income households shows that employment and reliable transportation are related. Respondents without access to a reliable vehicle are less likely to be employed; those employed are more likely to have access to a reliable vehicle. Residence in an area adjacent to a metropolitan area has a positive effect on working.     

An Examination of the Effect of Hypothesis Framing on Auditors'Information Choices in an Analytical Procedure Task

Libby (1985) contends that auditors'search for and evaluation of audit evidence, particularly during analytical procedures, is influenced by an explicitly or implicitly formulated hypothesis. Often a hypothesis may be'framed'in alternative ways. For example, an auditor may frame analytical procedure results in terms of a'misstatement'or a'non-misstatement'frame. The concern arises that alternatively framed, but otherwise identical, audit issues may be treated differently. This concern has led Kinney and Haynes (1990) to propose modifying auditing standards to direct auditors to adopt a'misstatement'frame. The purpose of the present study was to examine whether alternative analytical procedure frames affect auditors'information choices in an analytical procedure task. An experiment was conducted in which auditors listed which information cues were relevant to explain an unusual financial statement fluctuation. Half of the information cues made a misstatement explanation more plausible whereas half of the information cues made a non-misstatement explanation more plausible. The results indicate that hypothesis frame significantly affected auditors'information choices. Specifically, auditors in the misstatement (non-misstatement) frame select more misstatement (non-misstatement) cues as relevant. The hypothesis frame, however, did not significantly affect probability assessments.     

Invisible Parameters in Option Prices

This paper characterizes contingent claim formulas that are independent of parameters governing the probability distribution of asset returns. While these parameters may affect stock, bond, and option values, they are “invisible” because they do not appear in the option formulas. For example, the Black-Scholes ( 1973 ) formula is independent of the mean of the stock return. This paper presents a new formula based on the log-negative-binomial distribution. In analogy with Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein's ( 1979 ) log-binomial formula, the log-negative-binomial option price does not depend on the jump probability. This paper also presents a new formula based on the log-gamma distribution. In this formula, the option price does not depend on the scale of the stock return, but does depend on the mean of the stock return. This paper extends the log-gamma formula to continuous time by defining a gamma process. The gamma process is a jump process with independent increments that generalizes the Wiener process. Unlike the Poisson process, the gamma process can instantaneously jump to a continuum of values. Hence, it is fundamentally “unhedgeable.” If the gamma process jumps upward, then stock returns are positively skewed, and if the gamma process jumps downward, then stock returns are negatively skewed. The gamma process has one more parameter than a Wiener process; this parameter controls the jump intensity and skewness of the process. The skewness of the log-gamma process generates strike biases in options. In contrast to the results of diffusion models, these biases increase for short maturity options. Thus, the log-gamma model produces a parsimonious option-pricing formula that is consistent with empirical biases in the Black-Scholes formula.     

Fiscal Positions and Government Bond Yields in OECD Countries

We examine the effect of fiscal positions, both the level of debt and the fiscal balance, on long‐term government bond yields in the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD). To control for the endogenity of fiscal positions to the business cycle we utilize forward projections of fiscal positions from the OECD's Economic Outlook. In a panel regression over the period from 1988 to 2007, we find a robust and significant effect of fiscal positions on long‐term bond yields. Our estimates imply that the marginal effect of the projected deterioration of fiscal positions adds about 60 basis points to U.S. bond yields by 2015, with effects on other G‐7 bond yields generally being smaller.