Exploring the Nature of “Trader Intuition”

Experimental evidence has consistently confirmed the ability of uninformed traders, even novices, to infer information from the trading process. After contrasting brain activation in subjects watching markets with and without insiders, we hypothesize that Theory of Mind (ToM) helps explain this pattern, where ToM refers to the human capacity to discern malicious or benevolent intent. We find that skill in predicting price changes in markets with insiders correlates with scores on two ToM tests. We document GARCH‐like persistence in transaction price changes that may help investors read markets when there are insiders.     

Employment and Changing Technology in the Postwar Railroad Industry

Secularly declining employment has characterized the postwar railroad industry. This study identifies some causes of this decline by testing an industry employment function. The introduction of new techniques of production, especially the conversion from steam to diesel locomotives, along with rising wages and deregulation, are found to be the primary factors behind the fall in industry employment.     

A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF WHY NPV UNDERVALUES MANAGERIAL FLEXIBILITY

The Real Options paradigm addresses the valuation of managerial flexibility in capital budgeting. Despite the great strides achieved by researchers in this field, many financial analysts have chosen not to adopt this new paradigm due to a lack of comfort with the approach and the mathematical complexity of the valuation models. This article shows how some projects with real options can be valued using simple and familiar tools-discounting expected cash flows after adjusting the discount rate. Unless the discount rate is adjusted to account for the impact of real options on risk, a traditional net present value (NPV) analysis misses the value of flexibility. By narrowing the gulf between Real Options analysis and more familiar tools, the weighted average discount rate (WADR) approach introduced in this paper may help novices better understand die Real Options paradigm, which subsequently may gain the wider acceptance it deserves. Though the WADR approach is practical only for simple real options, comfort with the approach may encourage analysts to pursue more advanced and robust real option valuation techniques for more complex applications.     

CHINA IN TRANSITION: WHERE IS SHE HEADING NOW?

With assistance from government officials and friends in the People's Republic of China, and from others, the author has been able to gather rare information on developments in that country. Five years ago, he predicted that China would move toward a system akin to one with private property rights, that development of the labor market would precede that of the property market, and that state enterprises wielding relatively strong monopoly powers would be the last to yield. Dramatic changes since then have made those predictions remarkably accurate…faulted only by an underestimate of the speed of change. Continued investigation of events inside China suggests that, while the undercurrent for change remains strong, economic reform in China is likely to progress at a considerably slower pace in the future.     

Political Motivations

Are politicians motivated by policy outcomes or by the perks of office? To shed light on this important question, I develop a simple model of two candidate electoral competitions in which candidates may be either office or policy motivated . In a second departure from standard formulations, the model incorporates both campaign and post-election behaviour of candidates. In this environment, I find that office-motivated candidates are favoured in electoral competition but that their advantage is limited by the electoral mechanism itself and policy-motivated candidates win a significant fraction of elections. More importantly, I show that the competitive interaction among candidates of different motivations affects the incentives of all candidates—both office and policy motivated—and that this competition affects policy outcomes. I also extend the model to explore the decision of citizens to enter politics and show that in all equilibria policy-motivated citizens compose a majority of the candidate pool.     

CAP Forum on Enron: What If Andersen Had Shredded in Toronto or Calgary? The Potential Criminal Liability of Canadian Public Accounting Firms*

Both Canadians and Americans often assume that the legal system, like many other aspects of society, works the same in both countries. Just as these assumptions often fail to stand up to detailed scrutiny, so too may the assumption that Arthur Andersen LLP could have been charged with and convicted of obstruction of justice in Canada. In this paper, we examine the hypothetical question of what would have happened if a public accounting firm had shredded documents, fearing a provincial securities regulatory investigation in Toronto or Calgary. We examine the key differences between both the law and the institutional environment in Canada and the United States to determine whether such a prosecution could occur in Canada. We find that the letter of the law would probably have resulted in a successful prosecution. However, because of differences in the institutional environments, a criminal prosecution of a Canadian public accounting firm would probably never have occurred. The implications of this conclusion are discussed.     

Foreign Ownership and Market Power in Banking: Evidence from a World Sample

The nexus between ownership and competition in the banking sector is a major concern to policymakers around the world but one that is rarely comprehensively examined. For 131 countries and 13 years we match bank ownership with over 50,000 bank‐year estimates of individual bank market power. We find that ownership does not explain market power at the individual bank level. However, at the country level, foreign bank ownership has a positive and significant impact on market power mainly because foreign banks enter through mergers or acquisitions and not through greenfield investments. The observed increases in market power primarily originate from decreases in the marginal cost.     

Option Momentum

This paper investigates the performance of option investments across different stocks by computing monthly returns on at-the-money straddles on individual equities. We find that options with high historical returns continue to significantly outperform options with low historical returns over horizons ranging from 6 to 36 months. This phenomenon is robust to including out-of-the-money options or delta-hedging the returns. Unlike stock momentum, option return continuation is not followed by long-run reversal. Significant returns remain after factor risk adjustment and after controlling for implied volatility and other characteristics. Across stocks, trading costs are unrelated to the magnitude of momentum profits.