Pathways After Default: What Happens to Distressed Mortgage Borrowers and Their Homes?

We use a detailed dataset of seriously delinquent mortgages to examine the dynamic process of mortgage default—from initial delinquency and default to final resolution of the loan and disposition of the property. We estimate a two-stage competing risk hazard model to assess the factors associated with post-default outcomes, including whether a borrower receives a legal notice of foreclosure. In particular, we focus on a borrower’s ability to avoid a foreclosure auction by getting a modification, by refinancing the loan, or by selling the property. We find that the outcomes of the foreclosure process are significantly related to: loan characteristics including the borrower’s credit history, current loan-to-value and the presence of a junior lien; the borrower’s post-default payment behavior, including the borrower’s participation in foreclosure counseling; neighborhood characteristics such as foreclosure rates, recent house price depreciation and median income; and the borrower’s race and ethnicity.     

An Intertemporal Currency Board

The paper shows that the traditional wisdom of raising interest rates to defend a currency enriches rather than punishes the speculators. Furthermore, using high interest rates as a currency defense tool often produces the opposite effect in times of crisis. A new approach is proposed of using Hong Kong dollar "put" options as an explicit commitment by the government. The put option itself acts like an intertemporal currency board in keeping the linked exchange rate over time. This costly signaling produces a separating equilibrium that distinguishes the strength of the Hong Kong dollar from the other Asian currencies that were under pressure in 1997.     

On the asymptotic normality of some unbiased estimates

Abstract

Let X _m(n) =(X _j , n, ..., X _{j m,n} ) be a subset of observations of a sample X_n = (X_1n X _2n ... , X _nn ). Here the X_jn 'S in Xn are not necessarily independent or identically distributed, and m(n) mayor may not tend to infinity as n tends to infinity. Suppose the joint density function h_n =h_n (x _m (n); θ) of the X _jn 's in Xm(n) is completely specified except the values of the parameters in the parameter vector θ = (θ1 θ2, ... , θ _k ), where θ belongs to a non-degenerate open subset H of the k-dimensional Euclidean space Rk and k?m(n).     

The future of work and work-life balance 2025

This paper explores the concept of the future of work and identifies some of the challenges that Europe will increasingly face in regards to economic, social and demographic changes. We argue that workers will find themselves in an age of transition driven by new technological opportunities and the feminization of the labor force. The consequences of these changes will affect the organization of future work and the concept of the work-life balance. Special attention is given to the Scandinavian models and cases, as the welfare states of the north are often regarded as being on the forefront concerning the work-life balance. We will demonstrate how aging is affecting Denmark and purport that the Scandinavian model will face significant challenges. We describe the components of work-life balance and present alternative fictionalized scenarios for future work that highlight the interplay between macroeconomics and the work-life balance.     

Bank Efficiency and Macro-economic Factors: The Case of Developing Countries

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of macro-economic factors on bank efficiency of commercial banks in Asia, Middle East/North Africa, and Africa. To achieve the objective, the stochastic frontier approach (SFA) was used to simultaneously estimate the parameters of the stochastic frontier and the inefficiency model. The results show that the effect of macro-economic factors on bank efficiency differs across region. Cost inefficiency of the commercial banks in the Asian region is negatively related to the real gross domestic product per capita, credit to the private sector, and market concentration but is positively related to trade openness. Banks cost inefficiency in the Middle East/North Africa is negatively related to trade openness but is positively related to market concentration suggesting that banking market in this region should be more open to competition.     

对低收入者住房问题的研究

2011年是极不寻常的一年。世界经济出现大变局,中国经济开始大调整后,中国经济面临大挑战。在地震频繁爆发,世界经济大幅度动荡的情形下,中国也在汶川.青海.云南之后,物价持续上涨,从而也在一定程度上影响着房地产事业。而占社会群体绝大多数的低收入者对此次的感受从某种意义上来说更为深刻。前两年房价上涨过快,脱离了绝大多数老百姓的承受能力,低收入者的住房问题成为全社会关注的焦点,也成为了国家在民生方面的工作重点。从全国范围来看,住房保障建设还远未达到要求。最主要是各级政府重视不够,虽然出台一系列政策措施,但是对保障政策的具体落实执行情况远不尽如人意,无论在投入机制、配套措施、部分城市政府介入还是保障性住房供应量等方面有诸多问题。     

Asymmetric cash flow sensitivity of cash holdings

Almeida, Campello, and Weisbach (2004) and Riddick and Whited (2009) offer contrasting conclusions regarding the corporate cash flow sensitivity of cash. We use an augmented empirical model to affirm the conclusion in Riddick and Whited that the cash flow sensitivity of cash is generally negative. In addition, we contend that the cash flow sensitivity of cash is asymmetric to cash flow. The asymmetry may be due to several reasons, including binding project contracts, bad news withholding, and agency costs. Using a sample of manufacturing firms from 1972 to 2006, we document that the cash flow sensitivity of cash is negative when a firm faces a positive cash flow environment, supporting Riddick and Whited (2009), but the cash flow sensitivity of cash is positive when a firm faces negative cash flows. We further divide firms into financially constrained and unconstrained ones and find that the cash flow sensitivity of cash asymmetry continues to hold in both groups. When we use institutional holding as a control for the agency problem, we find that firms with better outside monitoring dissave to capture good investment opportunities. All the results support our hypotheses that firms have different levels of responses to their cash holdings when facing positive and negative cash flows.     

谈私营企业主阶层地位的变迁及影响

私营企业主阶层地位及其地位相关关系的变迁受制于经济、制度诸因素的影响,其发展与地位变迁是一个与整个社会经济、制度环境互动的过程,同时也是这种互动的结果。本文主要对私营企业主阶层变迁的阶段进行了分析,并在此基础上分析私营企业的发展对于构建社会主义和谐社会的影响。     

Energy-saving Supporting Tourism Sustainability: A Case Study of Hotel Swimming Pool Heat Pump

Based on energy-related measurements, this article evaluates the thermal performance, energy-saving, indirect emissions and financial feasibility of using heat pumps for hotel out-door swimming pools in subtropical climates. A rooftop pool of a city-centre hotel was investigated. It was found that the average coefficient of performance (COP) was around 2.0. The measured electricity consumption was 24.6 MWh and the total heat output was 49.1 MWh for the heating season studied (mid-December to the late April). Compared with conventional electric boilers and gas-fired condensing/non-condensing boilers, the total energy savings during the heating season ranged from 26.5 to 32.5 MWh. Greenhouse and noxious emissions can also be indirectly reduced by about 12,000 kg. A discounting approach was adopted to compute the net present value of fuel costs over a lifecycle of 10 years. It was found that, over a 10-year lifecycle, the energy cost could be reduced by HK$226,400 when a heat pump with an average COP of 2.0 was used instead of a conventional electric boiler. Derived from the energy cost saving over other conventional type of water heating equipment, the simple pay-back period can be about 2 years and the lowest internal rate of return can be 39%.