Potential Beneficiaries from Reverse Mortgage Products for Elderly Homeowners: An Analysis of American Housing Survey Data

A variety of reverse mortgage loan programs have been available to elderly households for over a decade. The number of unrestricted reverse mortgage loans issued by the private sector has been quite small. About 12,000 loans have been issued through mid-1992. Some researchers take this to mean that the size of the potential market for reverse mortgages is also quite small. Other researchers claim that current low levels of activity reflect supply and demand problems, but that the potential market is in fact quite large. This paper uses American Housing Survey (AHS) data to estimate the potential size of the market for unrestricted reverse mortgages. The 1989 national AHS shows that there are over twelve million elderly homeowners (age 62 and over) who own their homes free and clear. Depending on their income, age and the level of home equity, the group of households most likely to benefit from reverse annuity mortgages is considerably smaller. As one approach to defining a lower bound of the estimate of potential beneficiaries from reverse mortgages, we count the number of homeowners in a prime group consisting of the older elderly, aged 70 or above, with an annual income of $30,000 or less, with home equity between $100,000 and $200,000, who have lived in their homes for over ten years. We estimate that there are about 800,000 elderly households in this prime group. For such households, reverse mortgage payments could represent a substantial percentage increase in income; other definitions of target groups can also be explored using the tables provided. The paper uses the 1985 through 1988 AHS Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) surveys to identify areas that have a large number of elderly homeowners in the prime target group, and in which these homeowners represent a large fraction of the elderly homeowner population. These locations are likely targets for introduction of reverse mortgage products because any campaign can be targeted towards a high concentration of likely eligible beneficiaries.     

The Impact of Labour Markets on Specialist Manpower

ABSTRACT A major problem to be faced in the coming decade is ensuring an adequate supply of trained staff to innovate and exploit new technologies. Historically this has often been defined as a macroeconomic supply-demand issue, to do with generating people from the educational sector with the appropriate mix of expertise in the numbers required to meet demand in the industrial sector. In this paper the author makes the case that the concept of 'expertise' is not as simple as a supply-demand view assumes. The definition of what is appropriate expertise for given jobs—technical and managerial—seems to be heavily influenced by who is trying to gain control over whom, a phenomenon that can also be seen at work in situations as diverse as shopfloor demarcations and the behaviour of professional bodies. If this is the case, the solution to the supply-demand problem may well lie in the hands of the individual firm and its manpower policies, rather than in the overhaul of national systems of education.     

Alternate scenario planning

Although a number of organizations are attempting to add flexibility to their planning efforts by using Alternate Scenario Planning techniques, formal methodologies for preparing appropriate scenario sets are only now being developed. One 12-step scenario set generation technique is described in this article, and a particular application of the technique by a government-industry-university team is discussed.     

Adolescent risk perception,substance use,and educational attainment

This paper studies whether adolescents who are more aware of the risks on substance use in the early teenage years are later less likely to turn into binge drinkers or smokers. It also examines if reduction in substance use, due to high risk perception among adolescents, consequently improves their educational achievement. This research is important for two reasons. First, enhancing risk perception of substance use is an important strategy to prevent the youth from binge drinking and smoking. Second, adolescent substance use and educational achievement are key predictors of adulthood outcomes. We apply a bivariate probit model to a large representative dataset which codes youth risk perception, substance use, and educational attainment. The analysis shows high risk perception lowers the likelihood of substance use among the high school seniors. The resulting low alcohol use increases the chance of attending college and decreases the probability of dropping out of high school. The reduction in cigarette use caused by high risk perception has a similar effect on such two educational outcomes. It also increases high school graduation by 22%. Overall, this study suggests that enhancing recognition on the hazards of substance use is an effective policy intervention to reduce adolescent binge drinking and smoking, as well as improve educational attainment.     

White collar unions in R & D: some UK experience

A survey of 34 UK R & D organizations found that over 60% recognized unions at some level. Many had negotiated full bargaining agreements for particular groups of staff. Although unions came in for plenty of criticism, on the whole organizations which had recognized unions felt far less negatively about them than those which had not. The former were sometimes able to point to specific benefits they had gained from dealing with white collar unions.     

Introduction of a matrix structure into an R & D establishment

Matrix organization is increasingly being written about in terms which suggest that it is almost axiomatic that it is the best way of structuring an R & D lab. In this paper we wish to introduce a note of scepticism into the discussion, for the following reasons. Firstly, we suspect that not everyone has the same thing in mind when discussing matrix organizations. Secondly, we believe that there are many circumstances under which it clearly is not the best way of organizing, although there are plenty under which it is. Thirdly, we have seen in use many variants of the structure, suggesting to us that while there is an underlying, unifying concept at work, it needs to be much modified in most cases before it can successfully be applied. Finally, any reorganizing is a hazardous business, and a change to matrix involves particular difficulties of its own which need highlighting.     

Problems experienced by engineers with environmental product development projects

The environment industry has grown rapidly over the last decade. An increasing number of busines organizations are developing innovative products and processes which have neen generated by environmental concerns, increasing legislation for environmental protection and the regulation of industry's environmental impacts. There has been some research on barries to innovation and the problems affecting innovative product development in companies, but little ofthis has been applied to innovations developed for environmental protection, especially in the small firm. This paper provides empirical infomation on the problm experienced by engineers developing innovahe products and processes for environmental protection. A sample of 33 engineers, who were intmested in the competition The Environment Award for Engineers: replied to a postal questionnaire about the problas which thy had experienced in their environmental projects This is a competihon organized by the Engineering Council and sponsored by British Gas. The main aim the research was to explore the problems experienced by engineers during the developmat of environmental projects and in particular the different problems experienced by the engineers who were business owner-mangers and those who were employee engineers. The results show that the most jequent& experienced and most important problas are those concerned with securing financial backing and establishing the technical viability of the new product. Statistically significant differences were found between the most important problem expaaenced by employee engineers and business owner-mangers.