Uncertainty avoidance and the rate of business ownership across 21 OECD countries, 1976–2004

Persistent differences in the level of business ownership across countries have attracted the attention of scientific as well as political debate. Cultural as well as economic influences are assumed to play a role. This paper deals with the influence of cultural attitudes towards uncertainty on the rate of business ownership across 21 OECD countries. First, the concepts of uncertainty and risk are elaborated, as well as their relevance for entrepreneurship. An occupational choice model is introduced to underpin our reasoning at the macro-level. Second, regression analysis using pooled macro data for 1976, 1990 and 2004 and controlling for several economic variables, yields evidence that uncertainty avoidance is positively correlated with the prevalence of business ownership. According to our model, a restrictive climate of large organizations in high uncertainty avoidance countries pushes individuals striving for autonomy towards self-employment. Regressions for these 3 years separately show that in 2004, this positive correlation is no longer found, indicating that a compensating pull of entrepreneurship in countries with low uncertainty avoidance may have gained momentum in recent years. Third, an interaction term between uncertainty avoidance and GDP per capita in the pooled panel regressions shows that the historical negative relationship between GDP per capita and the level of business ownership is substantially weaker for countries with lower uncertainty avoidance. This suggests that rising opportunity costs of self-employment play a less important role in this cultural environment, or are being compensated by increasing entrepreneurial opportunities.

Adjustments and their Consequences—Collapsibility Analysis using Graphical Models

We review probabilistic and graphical rules for detecting situations in which a dependence of one variable on another is altered by adjusting for a third variable (i.e., non‐collapsibility or non‐invariance under adjustment), whether that dependence is causal or purely predictive. We focus on distinguishing situations in which adjustment will reduce, increase, or leave unchanged the degree of bias in an association that is taken to represent a causal effect of one variable on the other. We then consider situations in which adjustment may partially remove or introduce a bias in estimating causal effects, and some additional special cases useful for case‐control studies, cohort studies with loss, and trials with non‐compliance (non‐adherence).     

Detecting local environmental change: the role of experience in shaping risk judgments about global warming

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events (e.g. flooding, heat waves, and wildfires). As a result, it is often reasoned that as more individuals experience unusual weather patterns that are consistent with changing climate conditions, the more their concern about global warming will increase, and the more motivated they will become to respond and address the problem effectively. Social science research evaluating the relationships between personal experiences with and risk perceptions of climate change, however, show mixed results. Here, we analyze a representative statewide survey of Floridians and compare their risk perceptions of five-year trends in climate change with local weather station data from the five years preceding the survey. The results show that Floridians are unable to detect five-year increases in temperature, but some can detect changes in precipitation. Despite an inability to detect the correct direction of change, respondents were significantly more likely than not to correctly identify the season in which most change occurred. Nevertheless, compared to local experience, risk perceptions of climate change were more strongly predicted by subjective experiences of environmental change, personal beliefs about climate change, and political ideology. Results from the study suggest that long-term changes in climate patterns and extreme weather events need to be interpreted by weather and climate experts within the context of climate change; individuals cannot be expected to detect or comprehend such complex linkages directly.     

The Pricing Structure of Legal Services: Do Lawyers Offer What Clients Want?

Review of Industrial Organization - We analyze clients’ contract choices in auctions where Dutch law firms compete for standard cases such as labor disputes for individuals and collecting...     

The relationship between economic development and business ownership revisited

This paper revisits the two-equation model of Carree, van Stel, Thurik and Wennekers (2002) where deviations from the ‘equilibrium’ rate of business ownership play a central role in determining both the growth of business ownership and that of economic development. Two extensions of the original set-up are addressed: using longer time series of averaged data of 23 OECD countries (up to 2004) we can discriminate between different functional forms of the ‘equilibrium’ rate and we allow for different penalties for being above or under the ‘equilibrium’ rate. The additional data do not provide evidence of a superior statistical fit of a U-shaped ‘equilibrium’ relationship when compared to an L-shaped one. There appears to be a growth penalty for having too few business owners but not for having too many.     

Unintended Consequences of Changing Accounting Standards: The Case of Fair Value Accounting and Mandatory Dividends

A growing body of literature investigates the interaction of changes in accounting standards with institutions such as investor protection laws and corporate governance mechanisms. We examine the unintended consequences of fair value accounting in determining mandated preferred dividends. We study the case of Russian energy conglomerate UES, which had a good corporate governance track record and a consistent dividend history. Following its adoption of fair value accounting, UES reported the highest quarterly profit in world corporate history, but it subsequently omitted dividends for all its shareholders. The case analysis suggests that the transitory nature of fair value adjustments and the interaction with the investment policy were important considerations in justifying the dividend omission. The reduction in preferred dividends was not offset by any capital gains, and led to a wealth transfer from preferred to ordinary shareholders. Thus, requiring the use of fair value accounting when determining the dividend distribution base can lead to unintended consequences and increase agency costs for minority shareholders.