INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND GLOBAL STABILITY1

Trade liberalisation has played a critical role in advancing peace and prosperity. Differences on agriculture have been the major impediment to a future multilateral trade round. The recent agreement on agriculture at the WTO meetings in Geneva may signal a breakthrough in that sector. This article analyses the benefits of recent trade agreements and examines the prospects for future ones. It also presents an alternative framework for advancing trade, the Global Free Trade Association.     

The set of equilibria of first-price auctions

I specify the class of functions that are equilibria of symmetric first-price auctions. A formula to recover the distribution of valuations for any equilibrium bidding strategy is given.     

Mini/micro computer evaluation of system features: An empirical discriminant model of software and hardware expandability,compatibility, cost-efficiency,installation and delivery

The rapid advances in technology with declining costs of hardware is expected to widen the market for computers. One of the interesting balances for vendors to achieve is keeping users happy with increases in price performance, usually with lower unit costs. One way to achieve this objective is by satisfying users and meeting their needs. Users have many different needs, however, and it may be very difficult to prioritize them since many of the needs are partially mutually exclusive. For example, the promotion of one need, low response time, would be at the expense of another need, low cost. Therefore, mini/micro vendors and users could use a model that will prioritize needs and measure how satisfied users are with specific computer systems as compared to others. Similarly, the same information may be very useful to current and future computer users for system selection. Accordingly, the main purpose of the present study is to provide vendors and users of mini/micro computers with a discriminant model. This model classifies correctly 93% of the successful systems. Thus it can be used for system selection by users and for system design by vendors.     

Swedish mothers’ and fathers’ worries about climate change: a gendered story

Abstract

The present study considers whether parenthood has an impact on the worries that women and men have about climate change for the next generation and examines whether there are differences between the worries of mothers and fathers. The empirical material is based on a questionnaire-based survey that was administered in 2011 to a random selection of 3500 individuals in Sweden, with a response rate of 31%. The results indicate that parenthood, regardless of the parent’s gender, increases an individual’s worries about the impact of climate change on the next generation. Fathers are significantly more worried about climate change than men who are not parents; however, mothers do not worry significantly more than women who are not parents. In general, regardless of parenthood status, women worry about climate change more than men.     

Broadband penetration,financial development,and economic growth nexus: evidence from the Arab League countries

This paper examines the mutual relationship between broadband penetration, financial development, and economic growth in the 22 Arab League countries for the period between 2001 and 2013. Financial development (represented by broad money supply, claims on the private sector, domestic credit to the private sector, domestic credit provided by the banking sector, market capitalization, turnover ratio, and traded stocks) is assessed both individually, and by a composite index. Our results reveal that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between broadband penetration, financial development, and economic growth. Additionally, we use a panel vector autoregression model to reveal the nature of Granger causality between the covariates. The most important insight of this study is the presence of bidirectional causality from economic growth to broadband penetration in the long run. In addition, we find that financial development together with broadband penetration Granger-cause economic growth in the long run.     

Optimal selling mechanisms for multiproduct monopolists: incentive compatibility in the presence of budget constraints

We analyze the nonlinear pricing problem faced by an incomplete information monopolist operating in a market populated by agents with budget constraints. We show that if other goods are available and if the monopolist's goods are nonessential relative to other goods, then there exists an optimal, individually rational, and incentive compatible selling mechanism for the monopolist (Theorem 1). Moreover, we show that a solution to all such nonlinear pricing problems exists if and only if the monopolist's goods are nonessential (Theorem 2). In the absence of nonessentiality, we show that if the monopolist's profit function is independent of quantity (e.g., if all costs are fixed), then an optimal selling mechanism exists (Theorem 3). Finally, we show that if there is reporting (of types by agents) and partial recognition of types (by the monopolist), then an optimal selling mechanism exists, even in the absence of nonessentiality, provided agents' utility functions are affine and continuous in goods (Theorem 4).     

Credit cycles and macro fundamentals

We use an intensity-based framework to study the relation between macroeconomic fundamentals and cycles in defaults and rating activity. Using Standard and Poor's U.S. corporate rating transition and default data over the period 1980–2005, we directly estimate the default and rating cycle from micro data. We relate this cycle to the business cycle, bank lending conditions, and financial market variables. In line with earlier studies, the macro variables appear to explain part of the default cycle. However, we strongly reject the correct dynamic specification of these models. The problem is solved by adding an unobserved dynamic component to the model, which can be interpreted as an omitted systematic credit risk factor. By accounting for this latent factor, many of the observed macro variables loose their significance. There are a few exceptions, but the economic impact of the observed macro variables for credit risk remains low. We also show that systematic credit risk factors differ over transition types, with risk factors for downgrades being noticeably different from those for upgrades. We conclude that portfolio credit risk models based only on observable systematic risk factors omit one of the strongest determinants of credit risk at the portfolio level. This has obvious consequences for current modeling and risk management practices.     

Interdependent preferences: an econometric analysis

The theoretical model of Gaertner (1974) and Pollak (1976) for the interdependence of preferences in the Linear Expenditure System is estimated for a cross-section of households. The interdependence of consumption of different households has implications for the stochastic structure of the model and for the identifiability of its parameters. Both aspects are dealt with. The empirical results indicate a significant role played by the interdependence of preferences. One of its implications is that predictions of the effects of changes in a household's exogenous variables differ according to whether the exogenous variable only changes for this household or for all households jointly. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.