A life cycle analysis of social security

Summary We develop an applied general equilibrium model to examine the optimal social security replacement rate and the welfare benefits associated with it. Our setup consists of overlapping generations of 65-period lived individuals facing mortality risk and individual income risk. Private credit markets, including markets for private annuities, are closed by assumption. Unlike previous analyses, we find that an unfunded social security system may well enhance economic welfare. In our benchmark economy, the optimal social security replacement rate is 30%, and an empirically more plausible replacement rate of 60% raises welfare compared with an economy with no social security system.We would like to thank Andy Atkeson, V. V. Chari, Steve Davis, Paul Evans, Lars Hansen, Tim Kehoe, Nobu Kiyotaki, Ed Prescott, José-Victor Ríos-Rull, Richard Rogerson, Tom Sargent, Nancy Stokey, Dick Sweeney, Robert Townsend, and the participants of the NBER Economic Fluctuations Small Group Workshop on Micro and Macro Perspectives on the Aggregate Labor Market in Palo Alto, the NBER General Equilibrium Theory Conference in Minneapolis, the Money and Banking Workshop at the University of Chicago, and the NBER Summer Institute. An earlier version of this paper was titled A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Analysis of Social Security. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. SES-9210291. We also thank the Minnesota and San Diego Supercomputer Centers for their support.     

Repeated moral hazard with persistence

Summary. This paper considers the optimal contract when the current (hidden) action of an agent has a persistent effect on the future outcome. The optimal contract in a two-effort choice, two-period setting is characterized analytically and numerically. In particular, we show that persistence tends to make compensation less responsive to the first-period outcome. At the extreme, there are cases where the agent is perfectly insured against the first-period outcome: the agent obtains the same utility regardless of the first-period outcome. The model is extended to three periods. We also present a computational method to characterize an N-period model with two-period persistence.Received: 9 December 2003, Revised: 13 February 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D82, J31, J65. Correspondence to: Ayegül ahinWe are grateful to an anonymous referee, Jack Barron, Mark Bils, Hugo Hopenhayn, Per Krusell, Lance Lochner, Steve Williamson, and seminar participants at Concordia University, Purdue University, the applied theory meetings at University of Rochester, the Conference of the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory 2003, the Rochester Wegmans Conference 2002, and the Society for Economic Dynamics Meetings 2003 for their comments and suggestions. We also wish to thank Vera Brencic, Nancy Marmon, and Roxanne Stanoprud for excellent research assistance.     

An analysis of the carrying capacity and life process risks of UK and Turkish insurance intermediaries

The primary aim of this paper is to examine the strategic risks associated with environmental selection and how this affects the life process risks of insurance intermediaries. To achieve this aim; firstly the carrying capacity of UK and Turkish insurance intermediaries is calculated and, secondly, the demographic, ecological and environmental variables that affect that carrying capacity are examined. Our study provides two contributions to the literature. For the first time, carrying capacity analysis is applied for an organisational community. As much as previous studies assume the existence of carrying capacity as theoretical, it has not been previously calculated on a quantitative basis. The second contribution is related to risk and insurance literature, specifically the life process risks of insurance intermediaries. The main rationale behind that analysis is the construction of a map that will simplify the strategic risk and reward decisions of insurers as to which areas are potentially profitable, or are indicative of fruitful relationships with intermediaries. Additionally, this research enables us to identify the areas that have potential for development in terms of insurance. For this reason, uncertainties relating to the selection of authorised brokers/agents as a strategic risk is, perhaps, minimised. Moreover, we have examined whether probable variables that can affect carrying capacity have contextual differences or not. The findings exhibit that there is contextual differentiations concerning the variables that affect the carrying capacity of both countries.     

The causality between FDI and sector-specific production in Turkey: evidence from threshold cointegration with regime shifts

This article considers bidirectional nonlinear cointegration relation between FDI and industrial output in Turkey. The data cover the monthly period 2005:1–2013:10 for the time series of total industrial production, 36 sub-industrial sectors’ production and FDI. Following nonlinear threshold cointegration and VECMs, the article yields that (i) total industrial production and nine sub-industrial productions have positive long-run impact on FDI with significant error corrections, (ii) six sub-industrial productions have short-term influence on FDI, (iii) FDI has long-run positive impulse on total industrial production and nine sub-industrial productions with some significant error corrections and (iv) FDI affects four sub-industrial productions in the short run as well as in the long run. The results of VECMs from (i) also reveal that the all short-term adjustment parameters are found significant and powerful in 10 typical regimes (Regime-1s) and in 5 extreme regimes (Regime-2s). Finally, the outcome of VECMs from (iii) yields that short-term adjustment parameters are found significant and powerful in two typical regimes and in four extreme regimes. Eventually, considering FDI’s positive impact in the short and long run, this article suggests that policymakers promote specifically the FDI inflows to the sectors of intermediate goods, manufacture of beverages, manufacture of rubber and plastic and manufacture of other nonmetallic mineral products.     

Forecasting Turkey’s Credit Ratings with Multivariate Grey Model and Grey Relational Analysis

The concept of credit rating rooted back to mid-nineteenth century has become one of the most important elements in the world economy together with the globalization period gradually accelerating in the last two decades and increasing the interaction and sensitivity in the international markets. With the globalization and deepening in the financial markets; the effect, reliability and stability of knowledge of the actors who are in charge for directing the global capital flows have quite a big importance in terms of the decisions to be made in the future. In this process, credit rating agencies eliminating the information asymmetry between the countries and institutions who want to create financial resource by borrowing from the savings owners and foreign institutions. Credit ratings determined by the mentioned organizations are accepted as an indicator of the countries to meet the financial obligations in other words their creditworthiness. For Turkey’s economy having a structure with a high level of external financing needs in terms of accelerating the growth and development process, it is inevitable to have an international creditworthiness increasing long-term investment tendency meeting foreign capitals’ trust search. In this study, firstly the determinants of the credit ratings given by credit rating agencies are determined and then forecasting Turkey’s future credit ratings by combining them with multivariate grey model and grey relational analysis are performed.

     

精于创新 实现科技与环保共发展

广东博德精工建材有限公司是一家从事建筑陶瓷及其配套产品的研发、设计与生产一体化的中外合资高新技术企业.     

Using OWA aggregation technique in QFD: a case study in education in a textile engineering department

Quality Function Deployment (QFD) is a systematic approach that considers customer needs through design, production, marketing, and support stages. Customer needs are the main input for QFD, so voice of customer must be understood well and changes, innovations, and treatments must be held in this view. In QFD applications, determining the priorities of customer needs is a fairly important stage. This is mostly held by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) a multicriteria decision making technique. Nonetheless, Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) is an aggregation technique mostly used in decision making for multicriteria decision problems. So, combining these two techniques will give a different viewpoint for prioritizing the customer needs in QFD applications. The aim of this study is to show the use of Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) aggregation technique in QFD applications. For this purpose a case study in Dokuz Eylül University Textile Engineering Department was held. It was aimed to support the efforts on increasing the education quality by determining the students’ needs and opinions using QFD with OWA.     

自主创新为主线 提升企业竞争力

浙江佳环电子有限公司位于浙江省金华市,是一家从事高科技环保产品研制和生产近30年的国家火炬计划重点高新技术企业.公司先后荣获浙江省高新技术企业,中国环境保护产业骨干企业、全国环保科技先进企业,国家CAD应用工程示范企业,浙江省环保产业基地、浙江省诚信示范企业,浙江省纳税信用AAA级单位,浙江省工商企业信用AA级单位等称号."佳环"牌被认定为浙江省、金华市著名商标.公司现有职工320余人,有高中级职称40余人,大专以上科技人员120人,享受国务院特殊津贴3人.