Nash implementation through elementary mechanisms in economic environments

This paper identifies a class of mechanisms, called elementary mechanisms, which are (in a precisely defined sense) the “simplest” mechanisms that can implement efficient outcomes in economic environments. The class of social choice correspondences that can be implemented by elementary mechanisms is completely characterized in a variety of different economic contexts.     

北京市流动人口发展趋势预测研究

进入新世纪以来,北京市流动人口规模增长了1倍多.其中,省内流动人口规模增长了4倍多,省际流动人口规模增长了1.86倍.综合运用灰色预测模型和Logistic模型,以及综合运用ARIMA模型和Logistic模型,得到2020年北京市外省流入人口规模的预测区间为[867.50,1045.29](单位:万).即预计到2020年,北京市外省流入人口规模最低为867.50万人,最高为1 045.29万人.相应地,预计到2020年,北京市外省流入人口规模的最低年均增长率为1.25％,最高年均增长率为3.98％.     

世界经济新格局与中国经济长期增长前景

中国各行业企业资本边际收益率普遍下降,意味着中国宏观经济增速下行已成为必然趋势。实际上,这标志着中国在完成基本工业化后开始从高速增长阶段进入中低速增长阶段,这也是国际发达经济体和东亚新兴经济体都遵循的发展规律。面对经济增长的趋势性变化,货币政策对经济增长的刺激作用是非常有限的,大量超发货币只会加剧信贷泡沫、增加企业尝债能力的系统性风险。当前经济的核心问题在于宏观税赋过高和企业盈利能力不足,因此,最重要的财政政策应该是实施总量减税而不仅是结构性减税,尤其是对中小企业减税减赋,才能增加就业,提高居民消费比例,转变经济增长方式。     

“后危机”时代人民币主动国际化政策研究

2007年次贷危机爆发至今,对世界经济发展造成极大冲击。欧美等主要经济体都遭受到不同程度的破坏,经济发展放缓甚至倒退。而我国在积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策带动下,率先走出了此次危机。近期中央出台的一系列措施,旨在抓住机遇推行早已提上日程的人民币国际化。本文以后危机时代这一非常时期为参照,探究了人民币首次主动寻求国际化的政策转向,即从被动国际化转向主动区域化,并提出相关政策建议。     

Consumers' intentions to remain loyal to online reputation systems

The implications of recent consumer research for information system usage in the e‐marketplace are still poorly understood. However, understanding consumers' intentions to continue to use these systems remains a priority in practical marketing management, as leading marketplaces such as Amazon.com have widely embraced online reputation systems as a useful tactic in online marketing. The re‐ported study proposes an approach that differs from past research on this theme by incorporating Foxall's style/involvement model, which relates innovative behavior to cognitive style and involve‐ment in the product area. Based on a sample of 387 buyers from a top e‐marketplace in Taiwan, the findings indicate that consumers' underlying style/involvement levels significantly shape their continuance use intentions toward online reputation systems. The paper argues that consumers' cognitive styles and involvement levels should be adopted by researchers as major influences on system users' decision making in virtual purchase environments. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Finance Constraints and Firm Transition in the Informal Sector: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing

This paper focuses on the role of finance constraints in determining the lack of transition of firms in India from very small family firms, which are the predominant type of firms in the informal sector, into larger informal firms that employ non-family labour. Using a rich firm-level data-set drawn from nationally representative surveys of the Indian informal manufacturing sector, this paper tests for the role played by finance constraints in firm transition in the informal sector at the firm and district level. There is evidence that the difficulty that firms face in accessing external finance acts as a significant constraint to small firm growth in the informal sector. Looking at data from India's districts, it is found that the financial development in a given district increases the likelihood that firms in the district will make the transition from household enterprises into non-household enterprises.     

关于我国公益性地质队伍装备投资问题的思考

文章简要回顾了 1994年以来 ,各届政府领导对公益性地质队伍技术装备的重视 ,分析了从事公益性地质调查工作队伍的野外设备、实验测试设备、海洋调查设备现状及急需解决的问题 ,阐述了 2 0 0 3～ 2 0 0 5年国家利用国债专项资金装备公益性地质队伍的特点 ,并据此提出了完善地质调查固定资产管理 ,最大限度发挥新技术装备最大效益的建议。     

Strategic Bidding for Multiple Units in Simultaneous and Sequential Auctions

A buyer in an electronic marketplace may be interested in buying a bundle of items, where any one item in the bundle may not be of particular interest. The emergence of online auctions allow such users to obtain bundles by bidding on different simultaneous or sequentially run auctions. Because the number of auctions and the number of combinations to form the bundles may be large, the bundle bidding problem becomes intractable and the user is likely to make sub-optimal decision given time constraints and information overload. We believe that an automated agent that takes user preferences and budgetary constraints and can strategically bid on behalf of a user can significantly enhance user profit and satisfaction. Our first step to developing such an agent is to consider bundles containing many units of a single item to be bought from auctions that sell only multiple units of one item type. We assume that users obtain goods over several days. Expectations of auctions and their outcome in the future allow the agent to bid strategically on currently open auctions. We present an expected utility based strategy to decide how many items to bid for in the current auctions, and the maximum price to bid for each item. We evaluate our proposed strategy in different configurations by varying the number of items sold per auction, number of concurrently running auctions, expected closing prices, etc. We simulate several multiple unit English auctions per day, over multiple days, where most of the bidders bid their true utilities drawn from a distribution. The strategic bidding agent has knowledge of this distribution and uses it to determine its bids. A strategic agent who looks farther ahead into the future produces larger returns when there are few strategic bidders. We also evaluate the effect of risk attitudes on the relative performance of the bidders.     

State Abortion Restrictions and Child Fatal-Injury: An Exploratory Study

This paper tests the hypothesis that state-level restrictions on abortion access are linked to increases in child fatal-injury rates. The rationale is that such restrictions may disproportionately increase births of “unwanted” children as well as births to young, single, and low socioeconomic-status mothers, which in turn may lead to more adverse child outcomes—including more child fatal injury deaths. The paper uses state-level data on child fatal injuries in the 0-4 age group for 1981-2002, and estimates count-data models with state and year effects separately for white and black children. The abortion restrictions considered are enforced parental consent and notification laws, no public funding, and mandatory delays. Many of the restrictions are found to be significantly associated with increased homicide-resultant fatal injuries for white and black children, and increased unintentional fatal injuries for white children. Results for unintentional fatal injuries for black children are mixed.     

基于合作对策的工程项目集成化管理利益剩余分配模型研究

文章借鉴制造业虚拟组织的利益分配机制,结合工程项目集成化管理实际,分析了工程项目集成化管理利益剩余的产生渠道,确定了工程项目集成化管理利益剩余的评价指标;根据利益剩余种类的不同,运用合作博弈理论,构建了基于Nash谈判模型的工程项目集成化管理利益剩余总量分配模型,以及基于Shapley值的工程项目集成化管理无形利益剩余分布模型,并基于两种模型给出了确定工程项目集成化管理利益分配方案的方法;最后,通过一个算例仿真验证了模型的可行性和合理性。结果表明,该模型能够综合考虑工程项目集成化管理的直接经济利益剩余和无形利益剩余,计算简单,结果合理,是一种效果较好的工程项目集成化管理利益剩余评估分配方法。