财政结构、城乡统筹与经济发展的空间机理研究

文章在构建财政结构及城乡统筹指数基础上,从空间角度对2009年我国经济发展机理进程分析。结果表明：2009年我国31省经济发展存在明显的空间集群特性;财政支出总体表现为促进经济发展,其中非生产性支出作用较为明显,生产性支出对于经济发展的促进作用相对较弱;城乡差异在一定层度上对经济的发展起到遏制作用。另外,空间修正收敛模型显示,1994-2009年我国经济整体呈现明显收敛。     

The effects of economic reforms on manufacturing dualism: Evidence from India

Dualism is a pervasive feature of the manufacturing sectors of less-developed countries, with large differences in productivity between the informal and the formal sectors. Policy distortions are viewed as an important factor behind the prevalence of manufacturing dualism. We examine whether tariff reforms, industrial de-licensing and the withdrawal of reservation of products for small firms implemented since the mid-1980s have had any effects on efficiency differentials between informal and formal firms in Indian manufacturing. We find strong evidence that economic reforms have exacerbated dualism by increasing the productivity differentials between the more efficient formal firms and the less efficient informal firms.     

The volatility of Australian traded goods’ prices

It is generally accepted that the Australian economy is continually subject to unanticipated shocks, particularly, unexpected swings in the prices of Australia's internationally- traded goods. This article empirically investigates the nature and extent of volatility in import and export prices faced by the Australian production sector. It estimates multivariate GARCH models of the stochastic processes generating the prices of imports and exports, and of important components of exports and imports. This article proposes an index of volatility, which is used to provide a summary measure of the extent of volatility in a multivariate context. The overall conclusion is that the price growth rates for Australia's traded goods exhibit considerable time variation in volatility and that these price growth rates are highly and positively correlated with each other.     

Are US macroeconomic series difference stationary or trend-break stationary?

This article tests for the presence of a unit-root in all time series included in the extended Nelson–Plosser data set using the statistics devised by Zivot and Andrews, Perron and Murray and Zivot. It specifies the mixed model characterization of the trend-break stationary alternative that allows for a simultaneous break in both the intercept and slope of the trend-function. It rejects the unit-root null hypothesis for real GNP, nominal GNP, real per capita GNP, industrial production, employment, GNP deflator, nominal wages, interest rate and common stock prices. Use of appropriate critical values to assess the significance of the trend-function coefficients reveals that the slope-break should be included in real GNP, nominal GNP, real per capita GNP, nominal wages, interest rate and common stock prices. The results indicate that there is less evidence against the unit-root hypothesis with the extended Nelson–Plosser data compared to the original Nelson–Plosser data.     

再析甬温事件后中国高铁“走出去”

当前,世界迎来新一轮高铁发展浪潮。中国高铁近几年的飞跃发展,受到世界瞩目,高铁"走出去"的市场前景广阔。虽然甬温事件阻碍了"走出去"的脚步,但中国高铁"走出去"的优势仍存在,而且"走出去"战略意义重大,不可动摇。因此要妥善处理甬温事件,采取适当措施,推动"走出去"战略重建。     

境外公共治理经验和推进我国治理创新的建议

境外公共治理的经验表明,在攸关民众切身利益政策的制定和实施过程中,服务对象的参与以及多方合作制衡有助于更好地维护公众利益。国内公共服务的管理一直强调政府与服务提供机构之间的博弈,而忽视了公众方的参与。近年来一些部门和地区开始探索建立公共服务机构的治理机制。我们建议,在完善公众知情权和评议权基础上,中央政府应该着力推进公共服务法人治理结构的试点。近期可由政府主导政策过程,其他利益相关者参与监督和咨询;远期应赋予社会公众代表平等参与决策等核心职权。     

A Skew‐normal copula‐driven GLMM

This paper presents a method for fitting a copula‐driven generalized linear mixed models. For added flexibility, the skew‐normal copula is adopted for fitting. The correlation matrix of the skew‐normal copula is used to capture the dependence structure within units, while the fixed and random effects coefficients are estimated through the mean of the copula. For estimation, a Monte Carlo expectation–maximization algorithm is developed. Simulations are shown alongside a real data example from the Framingham Heart Study.     

Monetary policy games,financial instability and incomplete information

In the aftermath of the recent global financial crisis, monetary authorities, while pursuing traditional objectives, such as the control of inflation, are also eager to promote financial stability. In this paper, we model the strategic interaction of the central bank and the financial sector and explore a simple monetary policy game with perceived substantial risks to financial stability, where the central bank can be of two types, one pursuing strict inflation-targeting and the other concerned with affecting the expectations formed by the financial sector participants; however, the financial sector is unsure which, due to incomplete information. The conclusion is that for small shocks to inflation there is a pooling equilibrium, whereas for larger shocks there is separation. In the latter case, the central bank that has an explicit financial stability concern is willing to exercise more muted control to inflation in order to reinforce the safety of the financial sector.     

全球金融动荡与中国的宏观经济

在中国宏观经济的格局中,政府应该考虑采取宽松的财政政策来恢复中国经济增长的潜势和动力。在当前最合宜的宽松财政政策应该是减税,包括各种企业税收和个人所得税。政府大幅度地减少企业税,会直接“留血”和“输氧”给企业。从经济长期增长的动因来看,在企业界投资信心不足、居民消费信心匮乏的情况下,刺激经济增长的首要措施莫过于减税。     

基于最小生成树的分簇协作频谱感知改进算法

为减少分簇过程中的时延,基于最小生成树的单向比较优势提出簇首快速推举方法,并提出改进的分簇协作频谱感知算法,分析了算法的时间复杂度。算法首先基于最小划分对所有次用户节点进行分簇,簇内节点根据设置的评价条件进行性能比较,推举簇首。由簇首进行本地簇内频谱检测,并上传检测结果,最后融合中心在簇首间实现协作的频谱检测。在瑞利信道条件下,仿真显示在大信噪比时,融合中心应用AND规则,系统具有较小的虚警率,所提算法检测性能优;小信噪比时,应用OR规则能扩展系统的有效检测区间,所提算法在满足系统要求的前提下检测性能较差,但簇内信道效率提高了n-1倍。