Are Asian stock markets efficient? Evidence from new multiple variance ratio tests

This paper tests for the martingale hypothesis in the stock prices of a group of Asian markets. We use new multiple variance ratio tests based on the wild bootstrap and signs. These are non-parametric finite sample tests, which do not rely on large sample theories for statistical inference. This paper also presents Monte Carlo results that these non-parametric tests show superior small sample properties to those of the conventional Chow–Denning test. Both weekly and daily data from 1990 are considered, while moving sub-sample windows are used for the latter to control the sensitivity of the results to a particular sample period. It is found that the Hong Kong, Japanese, Korean and Taiwanese markets have been efficient in the weak-form. The markets of Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines have shown no sign of market efficiency, despite financial liberalization measures implemented since the eighties. We have also found evidence that the Singaporean and Thai markets have become efficient after the Asian crisis. In general, the results point toward the notion that the pricing efficiency of a market depends on the level of equity market development as well as the regulatory framework conducive of transparent corporate governance.     

Business unit relatedness and performance: A look at the pulp and paper industry

Discussions of relatedness in the strategy literature concentrate on linkages among business units in terms of key business functions such as marketing and production. While much is known about relatedness from the standpoint of corporate diversification, evidence about the relationship between relatedness and performance at the business unit level has been notably lacking. To further our understanding of the benefits and costs of relatedness, this study examined the perspectives of business unit managers to assess: (1) how the relationship between the two primary types of relatedness–production and marketing–are emphasized at the business unit level, and (2) how these types of relatedness affect business unit performance.     

Resonant R&D structure for effective technology development amidst megacompetition—an empirical analysis of smart cooperative R&D structure in Japan’s transport machinery industry

Under the megacompetition in globalizing economy while facing long lasting economic stagnation, the effective utilization of potential resources for innovation has become a crucial strategy for R&D intensive industries. The construction of a smart cooperative R&D structure has thus become significant. Among Japan’s R&D intensive industries, the transport machinery industry has constructed an effective cooperative R&D structure by smartly complementing both comparatively advantageous and disadvantageous technologies by means of integrating the effective utilization of technology spillover and joint collaborative R&D.Prompted by this complementing system, this paper attempts to elucidate the mechanism enabling the transport machinery industry to construct the smart cooperative R&D structure. Resonant R&D structure is identified as a source of such R&D cooperation leading to increasing its marginal productivity of technology.     

The nature of substitution between transport modes

Conclusions In this paper, we have derived a non-linear demand function for gasoline by means of a two-stage optimization of the S-2 branch utility function. The demand function was simplified by employment of the Kuhn-Tucker optimization conditions and the Shephard-Samuelson theorem. Two principal conclusions emerge from the empirical work presented in the preceding pages. First, the magnitude of the inter-class elasticity of substitution shows that consumers do not easily substitute among separate branches of the utility function. Second, the value for the intra-class elasticity of substitution suggests that consumers have little inclination to substitute between different modes of transportation. The U.S. household does not readily switch from private to public transportation when the price of gasoline and transportation costs as a whole increase. At the present time when there is little chance for substantial reduction in the price of gasoline, efforts to moderate the demand for gasoline by shifting household transportation from private to public modes will not be fruitful unless gasoline pricing policy is quite drastic or else supplemented by other policy measures.     

Does Alibaba's Magic Work Outside China?

Alibaba was an established e‐commerce giant in the Chinese online retail industry. In 2014, it recorded the world's largest initial public offering (IPO), raising a total of $25 billion. Alibaba's groundbreaking IPO and continuous growth in China had raised speculation on its imminent and potential expansions into other countries including the United States. On the other hand, Amazon and eBay had been leaders in the e‐commerce industry of the United States, arguably the world. This case seeks to weigh the potential success of Alibaba should it choose to expand outside its home country, China, including the United States. This case also helps understand how the Chinese business environment influenced the success of Alibaba, relative to other countries. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

A Behavioral Shift in Earnings Response After Regulation FD

The Regulation Fair Disclosure of 1999 (FD) intends to promote the full and fair disclosure of price information and further prevent insider trading. As a result, the public investors are expected to be empowered with more quality and relevant information. This study examines a behavioral shift in investor reaction to quarterly earnings announcements after the passage of the FD due to the expected improvement in information asymmetry. The empirical findings suggest that investors show a behavioral shift after the FD in response to biased earnings forecasts. Investors become more active in that they place a discount on optimistic earnings forecasts during the earnings announcement period. It is less obvious that they place a premium on pessimistic forecasts. Another coherent finding is that investors attempt to correct for the announcement-period mis-adjustments during the post-announcement period.     

Evaluating spatial and temporal variation in agricultural output elasticities in Turkey

This study evaluates spatial variation in the relationship between agricultural output and input use across Turkey. The potential impact of the national agricultural policy reform introduced in 2001 on the spatial variation in agricultural output elasticities across the country was explored. By applying a spatial production function to the province‐level data in 2000 and 2007, spatial heterogeneity in the variance of provincial total factor productivity and the input factor‐output elasticities was identified across the country. Results show that the disparities in agricultural activities and geographic conditions affected return from input factors. Empirical findings from a spatial spillover model also suggest that changes in the input factor‐output elasticities varied significantly across Turkey between 2000 and 2007, after the policy reform. Results suggest that future policy reform that recognizes regional comparative advantage through understanding the geographic heterogeneity of the agricultural sector is important for enhancing Turkey's agricultural output.     

Beyond point forecasting: Evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the bias-corrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.     

Stock return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from century-long U.S. data

This paper provides strong evidence of time-varying return predictability of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index from 1900 to 2009. Return predictability is found to be driven by changing market conditions, consistent with the implication of the adaptive markets hypothesis. During market crashes, no statistically significant return predictability is observed, but return predictability is associated with a high degree of uncertainty. In times of economic or political crises, stock returns have been highly predictable with a moderate degree of uncertainty in predictability. We find that return predictability has been smaller during economic bubbles than in normal times. We also find evidence that return predictability is associated with stock market volatility and economic fundamentals.     

Market selection with endogenous information revelation

This paper uses the dynamic general equilibrium model developed by Mailath and Sandroni (2003) but allows information revelation to be determined endogenously. The paper establishes sufficient conditions on the exogenous information arrival process that ensure that an investor who receives unique information infinitely often drives out an investor who receives unique information only finitely often.