Models for innovation diffusion: Vijay Mahajan and Robert A. Peterson; A Sage University Series on “Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences,” No. 07-048, Sage, Beverly Hills, 1985.

Developing countries wish to achieve in a few decades what the developed countries accomplished in many centuries under conditions of relatively lesser resource constraints. Therefore, the developing countries cannot emulate the evolutionary experiences of the developed countries; they need a revolutionary approach in their development strategies. One plausible option for this revolutionary orientation could be the utilization of a technology-based strategy for national development planning. This article proposes undertaking certain measurement activities with respect to the technological system of a country, which would enable national decision makers to use technology as a strategic variable for socioeconomic development. The article briefly describes the role of technology as the master key for sustainable development, discusses the current activities related to the measurement of technology, presents a few conceptual schemes, and a framework for the assessment of national technological capabilities and needs.     

The Weibull distribution as a general model for forecasting technological change

This paper presents a simple and widely applicable model for technological forecasting using the Weibull distribution function. It shows the generality of the Weibull function, which can accommodate different patterns of technological change. A method for estimating parameters and some applications are presented to illustrate the usefulness of the model.