An Actuarial Index of the Right-Tail Risk

Abstract

A common characteristic for many insurance risks is the right-tail risk, representing low-frequency, large-loss events. In this paper I propose a measure of the right-tail risk by defining the right-tail deviation and the right-tail index. I explain how the right-tail deviation measures the right-tail risk and compare it to traditional measures such as standard deviation, the Gini mean, and the expected policyholder deficit. The right-tail index is applied to some common parametric families of loss distributions.     

The magic of the market

Sugden’s analysis of conventions in The Economics of Rights Cooperation and Welfare is important. One reason for this is the way that it shows that some institutions, which are otherwise thought to require State intervention, can arise spontaneously. Another and less well-recognized reason is that this analysis provides a key insight into the origin of and stability in discriminatory behaviour and beliefs. There are difficulties with such discriminatory beliefs, and I argue that one of the less well-recognized virtues of markets is that they erode such beliefs. This is not because competition is likely to dissipate these beliefs rather it is because, and there is experimental evidence to support this, markets encourage the equal treatment of individuals in ways that undermine discriminatory practices.     

Towards a post-Keynesian Welfare economics

This article has two objectives. First, I raise the issue of whether we still need to bother with welfare economics. The increased acceptance of ideas from the new right with its strong criticism of state intervention makes this a valid question to pose. It is argued that post-Keynesians' concerns with uncertainty may form the basis of a valid counter to these new-right arguments. Secondly, I consider the possibility of there being a specifically post-Keynesian perspective on welfare economics. It is argued that this perspective favours egalitarian activism.     

Alpha and Persistence in Real Estate Fund Performance

This paper investigates whether fund managers investing in the direct real estate market can systematically and persistently deliver superior risk-adjusted returns. The research that has been published has typically focused on the performance of managers trading public real estate securities. Our study draws on a unique data set of commercial real estate funds collated by the Investment Property Databank (IPD) in the United Kingdom, covering up to 280 funds over the period 1981 to 2006. The widespread finding is that very few managers appear to be able to generate excess risk-adjusted returns. Furthermore, there is little evidence of performance persistence in either fund returns or risk-adjusted fund returns.     

Structural Equation Modeling: A Practical Introduction

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a popular statistical technique that has become an essential tool for business academics and practitioners. The technique is particularly well suited for evaluating the relationships among any number of observed and latent variables. Thus, typical applications for SEMs are model and theory testing, and scale development. The purpose of this article is to introduce the technique and to explain its use in practical terms that do not require a strong statistical background. Two previous Journal of African Business articles are used to demonstrate SEM applications, and the article concludes with a brief introduction to SEM software packages.     

THE MANAGEMENT OF THE PERSONNEL FUNCTION

This article examines the way the personnel role has developed in the United Kingdom, and argues that three main models of personnel management may be discerned. The way these models have been influenced by the recession is discussed and it is suggested that the personnel function, both as a specialized activity and as one aspect of all managerial work has been forced to change, in response to the need for increased competitiveness, to structural and ideological changes, and to industrial reorganization. Looking to the future, the paper anticipates the ‘balkanization’ of the personnel function as new specialisms emerge, and as personnel activity becomes more closely associated with corporate marketing strategies.     

Smoothing, Nonsynchronous Appraisal and Cross-Sectional Aggregation in Real Estate Price Indices

In this article three econometric issues related to private-equity return indices, such as real estate indices, are explored (smoothing, nonsynchronous appraisal and cross-sectional aggregation). Under certain assumptions, it is found that index returns based on appraisals follow an ARFIMA(1, d , 1) (autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average) process, where the long memory parameter ( d ) explains the level of smoothing and the AR and MA parameters represent the level of persistence in marketwide fundamentals and the nonsynchronous appraisal, respectively. The empirical results show that: (1) the level of smoothing in appraisal-based real estate indices is far less than assumed in many academic studies (2) there is weak evidence of nonsynchronous appraisal in the UK, IPD (Investment Property Databank) index and (3) marketwide fundamentals are highly persistent for the IPD index returns. On the other hand, there is no evidence of nonsynchronous appraisal or a persistent common factor in the U.S. NCREIF (National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries) index.     

Homemade equity offerings via dividend reinvestment and stock purchase plans

This paper investigates equity issuances through dividend reinvestment and stock purchase plans (DRSPPs). Using a unique sample collected from security registration filings, we show that firms can issue new shares through DRSPPs without using underwriters and consequently, save a large part of direct costs. This economical form of equity offering helps high dividend paying firms retain a substantial amount of cash flow from operations. With this innovative strategic practice of capital-raising, we provide direct evidence showing that the pecking order still drives firms' financing. Furthermore, equity offerings via DRSPPs can avoid negative stock market reactions around the issuance date.     

Enabling sustainability transitions in Asia: The importance of vertical and horizontal linkages

The phrase “sustainable development” appears increasingly in national policies in Asian countries and there are many successful ‘sustainability experiments’ documented at local level throughout the region. We explore why, despite the efforts made at the national level and the good practices at local level, underlying trends are away from sustainability. Drawing on the multi-level perspective on system innovation, we argue that linkages between different levels in socio-technical systems are critical to explaining the emergence of sustainable development pathways. The absence of these linkages in many Asian contexts is an important factor obstructing sustainability transitions in Asia. We argue that while the importance of vertical linkages is recognized and theorized in the multi-level perspective, the horizontal and the temporal dimensions are under-explored. We develop a set of propositions for exploring linkages in socio-technical systems, supporting these with empirical examples from the region.