基于回归分析法的南京市耕地面积变化影响因素分析

首先主要运用Excel预测南京市耕地面积减少的趋势;其次,通过文献阅读确定影响南京市耕地面积变化的影响因素,进而利用统计学方法建立了耕地面积与各个影响因素之间的回归分析模型;然后对模型所得结果的相关性进行统计性分析,剔除可能具有相关性的影响因素;最后把对各影响因素在南京市耕地面积变化的过程中按所起的正、负相关影响进行归类分析。旨在为南京市在抑制耕地面积锐减现象对相关因素的控制上提供相关的参考依据。     

Detection of Financial Time Series Turning Points: A New CUSUM Approach Applied to IPO Cycles

This paper presents a new Cumulative Sum approach for the detection of turning points in financial time series that are subject to cyclical mean level and volatility regime shifts. The new CUSUM approach is applied to the problem of detecting turning points in hot issue markets for Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), thus providing a multi-dimensional characterization of states of the IPO cycle.     

信用风险评级的若干议题

我国的银行业进行信用风险评级,虽然在技术上有一定的“后发优势”,但是绝对不是简单的“直接拿来”。信用风险的内部评级工作需要根植于内部数据,开发适合中国实际情况的评级模型。本文从银行内部评级的角度,对信用风险评级的若干问题进行了讨论,并提出了适当的处理方式。     

DO SCANDALS TRIGGER GOVERNANCE CHANGES? EVIDENCE FROM OPTION BACKDATING

We examine whether firms charged with backdating option grants make discernible changes to board structure and activity and whether such changes help recoup value losses from the revelation of option backdating. We find that these firms increased board size, reduced duality, and increased board independence. In addition, the boards and the compensation committees of these firms experienced significant increases in meeting frequency. We also find that firms in the same sectors that had not been identified as backdating option grants experienced similar changes in board activity and some elements of board structure. Additional analysis reveals that increases in board size, chief excutive officer turnover, and the meeting frequency of the audit committee are related to buy‐and‐hold abnormal returns in the postscandal period.     

现代商业银行公司治理探讨

国有商业银行转型为现代金融企业应明确其内容和原则,要在注重公司治理结构改革的同时,针对公司治理机制改革解决相应的问题,如建立科学的决策体系,完善内控机制,建立风险管理机制等等。     

Farmers’ crop insurance perception and participation decisions: empirical evidence from Hunan,China

The measurement of risk perception and risk attitudes, and their link to actual risk behaviors have been extensively discussed. However, the potential impact of perception of risk management instruments on the decision to use those instruments has rarely been addressed. This article hypothesizes that the degree of perception of insurance contracts and participation decisions could have substantial mutual influence depending on the development of the market. An empirical work is carried out based on a survey of data for paddy rice farmers in Hunan Province, China. It shows that the sampled farmers’ crop insurance perception was surprisingly low despite years of pilot programs and tens of billions of expenditure in government subsidies. The result of simultaneous equations model indicates that crop insurance perception and participation are simultaneously determined and mutually improving. Moreover, empirical evidence indicates that the impact of crop insurance participation on perception is slightly stronger than that of perception on participation, and thus provides weak evidence of a ‘learning-by-doing’ stage in China at present. Together with evidence of substantial local disparities in perception, implications for the Chinese government in further cultivating the crop and rural insurance market are discussed.     

RAROC在中国商业银行实务中的计量及其系统构建

有效的风险管理是银行价值实现的一个重要手段。基于商业银行在业务拓展中均衡收益风险的思想,本文重点探讨了RAROC的内涵与实质,从银行实务应用的角度提出不同管理目的下的实用RAROC计量模型。同时针对模型测算中面临的数据提取、匹配、分摊等问题进行了研究,指出实用的计量模型、完备的基础数据库和业务部门支持是RAROC系统建设的三大关键要素,并给出系统构建的相关建议。     

体育教育发展的新趋势——发展和完善学生的个性

坚持"健康第一"的指导思想,激发和培养学生的运动兴趣,重视学生的主体地位,关注学生的个体差异和不同需求,重视学生个性的发展,是新课程《体育与健康》的基本理念。本文通过在体育教学改革中,教师有意识地激发学生的兴趣;培养学生的能力,满足学生个体差异和不同需求,达到发展学生个性的目的。     

胜利油田集输管道腐蚀检测与管理

胜利油田作为全国第二大油田,集输管道总里程超过2万km。有70%以上的管道服役超过5年。由于油区地处滩海,沟渠河岔纵横,芦苇丛生,高盐碱化,采出水矿化度一般在5000～70000mg/L,易产生水垢的离子多,含溶解氧、CO2、H2S等腐蚀性气体,大量的SRB、TGB以及泥砂,导致集输管道结垢、腐蚀、磨蚀严重,个别区块的平均腐蚀速率高达1.7mm/a。在综合含水上升的同时,集输管网的运行温度也在逐年上升,加剧了管道的腐蚀,如胜利采油厂坨六站六月份的采出液平均进站温度已经由上世纪70年代的36℃上升到现在的59℃左右。我所去年六月份在东辛广利联合站测量的进站混输液温度更是高达62℃,井口温度就更高。正因如此,腐蚀穿孔时有发生,腐蚀已经成为制约油田降本增效和安全运行的重要因素。