Introductory Essay for a Symposium on “Urban Interventionism”

The Review of Austrian Economics -     

A paradigm shift from production function to production copula: statistical description of production activity of firms

The heterogeneity of economic agents is emphasized in a new trend in macroeconomics. Accordingly, the new emerging discipline requires one to replace the production function, one of the key ideas in conventional economics, by an alternative that can take explicit account of the distribution of firms' production activities. In this paper we propose a new idea referred to as a production copula; a copula is an analytic means for modeling the dependence among variables. Such a production copula predicts the value added by firms with given capital and labor in a probabilistic way. It is thereby in sharp contrast to the production function, where the output of firms is completely deterministic. We demonstrate the empirical construction of a production copula using financial data of listed Japanese firms. Analysis of the data shows that there are significant correlations among capital, labor and value added, and confirms that the values added are too widely scattered to be represented by a production function. We employ four models for the production copula, that is trivariate versions of Frank, Gumbel and survival Clayton and non-exchangeable trivariate Gumbel. The latter was found to be the best.     

Weakly non-separable preferences and the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect

We examine the current account effect of a terms-of-trade deterioration for a small country model, incorporating weakly non-separable preferences à la Shi (1994) under endogenous time preference. This enables us to emphasize a welfare change as an important determinant of the current account. Even with increasing marginal impatience, the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect occurs if consumers' preference toward imports is sufficiently wealth enhanced: in that case a terms-of-trade deterioration must reduce steady-state welfare to shift preference away from imports to exports. Several empirical implications are also derived. JEL Classification: F41; F32
Préférences faiblement nonséparables et l'effet de Harberger-Laursen-Metzler. L'auteur examine l'effet sur le compte courant d'une détérioration des termes d'échange dans un modèle d'un petit pays, quand les préférences sont faiblement nonséparables à la Shi (1994) et que la préférence temporelle est endogène. Cela permet de souligner qu'un changement dans le niveau de bien-être est un déterminant important du compte courant. Contrairement à ce qu'on trouve dans la littérature spécialisée, même quand on postule une impatience marginale croissante, l'effet Harberger-Laursen-Metzler se produit si la préférence des consommateurs pour les importations est suffisamment dépendante du niveau de richesse: dans ce cas-là, une détérioration des termes d'échange doit réduire le niveau de bien-être en régime permanent de manière à déplacer les préférences des importations vers les exportations. On déduit certaines implications empiriques de ces résultats.     

What causes business cycles? Analysis of the Japanese industrial production data

We explore what causes business cycles by analyzing the Japanese industrial production data. The methods used are spectral analysis and factor analysis. Using the random matrix theory, we show that two largest eigenvalues are significant. Taking advantage of the information revealed by disaggregated data, we identify the first dominant factor as the aggregate demand, and the second factor as inventory adjustment. They cannot be reasonably interpreted as technological shocks. We also demonstrate that in terms of two dominant factors, shipments lead production by four months. Furthermore, out-of-sample test demonstrates that the model holds up even under the 2008–2009 recession. Because a fall of output during 2008–2009 was caused by an exogenous drop in exports, it provides another justification for identifying the first dominant factor as the aggregate demand. All the findings suggest that the major cause of business cycles is real demand shocks.     

Decreasing Marginal Impatience and Capital Accumulation in a Two‐Country World Economy

This research is the first to examine dynamic general equilibrium in a growing two‐country economy under decreasing marginal impatience (DMI). The stability condition is shown to be more restrictive than in the case of an endowment economy and/or under increasing marginal impatience (IMI). By analyzing global‐economy adjustment to time preference shocks, international transfers and productivity shocks, equilibrium dynamics in the presence of DMI differ drastically from what is obtained when the standard IMI model is used. For example, in a country characterized by DMI, a positive productivity shock improves the country's welfare level and lowers its steady‐state time preference and, hence, the steady‐state interest rate. This leads to an increase in the neighbouring country's capital stock.     

Tariffs, Time Preference, and the Current Account under Weakly Nonseparable Preferences

Incorporating weakly nonseparable preferences into the familiar time–preference model, the author emphasizes a role of steady–state welfare changes in determining the effect of permanent tariffs on the current account. The effect consists of a welfare effect, due to steady–state welfare changes, which is negative (positive) when preferences toward imports are more (less) wealth–enhanced than toward exports; and a substitution effect, which occurs only with initial distortion. Even without initial distortion, a marginal tariff has a first–order welfare effect on the current account. Its sign does not depend on whether impatience is increasing or decreasing in wealth.     

Stock Market Responses Under Quantitative Easing: State Dependence and Transparency in Monetary Policy

This paper evaluates the effects of unconventional monetary policies adopted by the Bank of Japan from the year 2001 to 2006. A new measure is proposed to identify a nontraditional monetary policy shock from policy packages under the zero lower bound of short‐term nominal interest rates during the quantitative easing period, using data on intraday 3‐month Euroyen futures rates. We find that stock markets do not react to a policy surprise in an expected manner and negatively respond to a monetary easing surprise. Moreover, we find an asymmetric response during a boom and a recession and a nonlinear reaction because of increasing uncertainty concerning future inflation dynamics and the enhancement of monetary policy transparency. Our result suggests that it is difficult to implement unconventional monetary policy to manage agents’ expectations and a ‘lean against the wind’ policy to prevent asset bubbles, particularly at the zero bound.     

Correlated performance of firms in a transaction network

The correlation of firms’ performance on a transaction network is studied by analyzing financial and transaction data. Statistically significant correlation coefficients are obtained as evidence for the firm interactions. The firm interactions are taken into account in the basic equation of firm activity. Forty percent of residuals are explained by considering the firm interactions. The overall structure of the transaction network, i.e., the connectivity of industry sectors, is analyzed.     

Third-degree price discrimination,quality choice,and welfare

Employing an endogenous quality choice model, we reconsider the effect on welfare of monopolistic third-degree price discrimination. We prove that price discrimination always enhances welfare, mainly because the quality improvement owing to price discrimination increases consumer surplus. Moreover, we show that third-degree price discrimination benefits all parties, including consumers in the higher priced market if the preference differences between markets are sufficiently large.