Uncertainty representation and risk management for direct segmented marketing

ABSTRACT

Mining for truly responsive customers has become an integral part of customer portfolio management, and, combined with operational tactics to reach these customers, requires an integrated approach to meeting customer needs that often involves the application of concepts from traditionally distinct fields: marketing, statistics, and operations research. This article brings such concepts together to address customer value and revenue maximisation as well as risk minimisation for direct marketing decision-making problems under uncertainty. We focus on customer lift optimisation given the uncertainty associated with lift estimation models, and develop risk management and operational tools for the multiple treatment (recommendation) problem using stochastic and robust optimisation techniques. Results from numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the effect of incorporating uncertainty on the performance of recommendation models.     

A Non-Proportional Hazards Model with Hazard Ratio Functions Free from Covariate Values

A brief survey on methods to handle non-proportional hazards in survival analysis is given with emphasis on short-term and long-term hazard ratio modelling. A drawback of the existing model of this nature is that except at time zero or infinity, the hazard ratio for a unit increase in the value of a covariate depends on the starting value. With two or more covariates, the hazard ratio for a unit increase in one covariate with other covariates held fixed depends in an unintended way on the values of the other covariates. We propose an alternative way to model short-term and long-term hazard ratios without the above drawbacks through a judicious choice of covariate-time interactions. Under the new model, it is easier to describe the time-varying effect of each covariate on the hazard. Nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for the new model can be carried out in the same way as for the existing model. We also propose a product version of the existing model, which overcomes its second drawback but not the first. The advocated covariate–time interaction model provides a better fit to the Veterans Administration lung cancer data set than the original and product versions of the existing model.     

Resilience,wellbeing and HRM: a multidisciplinary perspective

Abstract

Research on resilience has accumulated a vast body of knowledge which has assisted in comprehending complex HRM issues in diverse organizational settings. Yet, the existing studies have hitherto not paid sufficient attention to the multifaceted aspects of resilience and occupational contexts. We join the conversation with resilience, wellbeing and HRM by suggesting that investigating resilience from a multidisciplinary perspective situated in varying occupational contexts can advance our collective understandings of the phenomena in important ways. This paper has three general objectives. First, we show that resilience has been a long-standing issue in organizational behavior and organization studies and provide an overview of the puzzles that underpin and trigger this special issue. Second, we highlight the key insights and contributions of the papers included in this special issue by reviewing their theoretical underpinnings, methodological approaches and findings. Finally, we outline a future research agenda on resilience in organizations that can help advance international HRM research.     

Choice of acquisition form in Australia and the post‐takeover employment of target firm directors on the acquiring firm board

In Australia, a corporate acquisition can be structured as either a scheme of arrangement or a takeover. We investigate the association between deal structure and the retention of target directors on the merged entity board. We find that the odds of a target director subsequently sitting on the merged entity's board are significantly higher in schemes. The results also show that premiums are lower in schemes of arrangement when additional target directors are appointed to the board of the acquiring firm. The findings indicate that target director appointment is unrelated to the merged entity's post‐acquisition performance.     

Dirty weekends and personal hygiene products: The embodiment of casual sex in marketing

In the current inquiry, we propose that reminders of casual sex might lead individuals to feel physically dirty, and this would then motivate consumers to acquire and like personal hygiene products such as toothpaste, body soap, and face wash. We further test the possibility that our hypothesized effect would arise mainly for those who link casual sex with impurity. In three studies, reminders of casual sex increase liking for personal hygiene products mainly among conservative (Study 1), religious (Study 2), and individuals who see “casual sex” to be “dirty,” “wrong,” or even “immoral” (Study 3). These findings are consistent with embodied cognition, suggesting that abstract representations can effect concrete sensations. We study this possibility in a novel domain in sex and sexuality. Our work is relevant to marketers of personal hygiene products, but we situate our findings in the broader discourse of how mere reminders of casual sex might influence individuals’ choices and behaviors.     

Why should I share my knowledge? A multiple foci of commitment perspective

Knowledge‐intensive firms need to leverage their individual knowledge assets via knowledge sharing to create collective knowledge resources. This process is, however, in the control of the knowledge worker. We explore this personal and emotive quality of knowledge sharing by asking: ‘How does employee commitment impact on knowledge sharing?’ We study professional service firms operating in cross‐boundary environments and examine the impact of commitment to the organisation, profession, team and client on knowledge sharing. The article contributes directly to our understanding of the interrelationship between (a) the types and foci of commitment and (b) bidirectional knowledge sharing.     

The effects of word‐of‐mouth consistency on persuasiveness

Word of mouth (WOM) consistency can be readily observed in online product evaluations. Previous studies on the influence of WOM consistency on purchase intentions have showed contradictory results. In this research, we identify how stronger persuasiveness of WOM is achieved when consistency, product type, and review content work together. Study 1 shows that regarding search goods, highly consistent factual reviews are more persuasive. Study 2 shows that concerning experience goods and credence goods, highly consistent experiential reviews have greater persuasiveness. However, low WOM consistency can also achieve stronger persuasiveness under some circumstances. Moreover, in Study 3, we replicate our findings and explore the possible underlying mechanism. Copyright © 2014 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Post-earnings announcement drift and parameter uncertainty: evidence from industry and market news

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD), one of the most prominent and robust return anomalies, is often attributed to investor naiveté or...     

Which firms benefit from market making?

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - From 1998 until 2008, all firms on the JASDAQ exchange could choose and switch between a market-maker method similar to NASDAQ and a continuous auction...