The Consequences of Globalisation: India's Software Industry and Cross‐border Labour Mobility1

The Indian software industry is a prime example of globalisation. The industry has been characterised by large cross‐border mobility of its skilled labour force. Using a unique survey of Indian software firms, our paper quantifies the extent and impact of mobility on firm behaviour and performance. Cross‐border labour mobility in the paper refers to both temporary and permanent labour flows by Indian software professionals. The picture that emerges is of a highly mobile world in which temporary mobility has been an important characteristic of the industry. A significant number of workers have work experience abroad in a developed country. Moreover, the share of skilled workers with such experience has been positively associated with the incidence of skilled migration from the firm. This suggests network effects are at work. In terms of the impact on performance – as measured by the change in turnover per worker and the change in the employment size of the firm – the paper finds little evidence of a robust adverse effect. Further, the evidence suggests that there have been important external effects at work, as through changes in the willingness of workers to acquire skills, as well as through increased provision of educational services. These have further abated the risk of a brain drain. However, the software industry may be rather different from other industries. Our results need to be interpreted as the outcome of a particular case of skilled migration and not one necessarily representative of all types of skilled migration and source sectors.     

How elections affect fiscal policy and growth: revisiting the mechanism

This paper reconsiders the popular result that the lower is the probability of reelection, the greater is the incentive of incumbent politicians to choose short-sighted, inefficient policies. The set-up is a general equilibrium model of economic growth, in which fiscal policy is endogenously chosen under electoral uncertainty. Political parties can value possible economic benefits differently depending on whether they are in or out of power, and—by contrast with the literature—the relevant preference coefficient is a choice variable rather than an exogenous taste parameter. The main result is that, when political parties choose both economic policy instruments and preference coefficients, the fundamental reason for short-sighted policy is the extra rents from being in power per se.     

The impact attenuation performance of materials used under indoor playground equipment at child care centers

In this article, we have investigated the pattern of road fatality in Brunei. It is seen from this analysis that road fatality in Brunei was one of the highest in the world in the early 1990s, but has been significantly reduced over the years, and is now one of the lowest in the world. Preliminary investigation shows that young male drivers are responsible for most road fatalities in Brunei. We have also fitted a linear regression model and found that road fatality is significantly positively related to people aged 18–24 years and new registered vehicles, both of which are expected to grow with the growth of population and economic development. Hence, road fatality in Brunei is also expected to grow unless additional effective road safety countermeasures are introduced and implemented to reduce road toll. Negative coefficient is observed for trend variable, indicating the reduction of road fatality due to the combined effects of improvements of vehicle safety, road design, medical facilities and road safety awareness among road user groups. However, short-term road fatality analysis based on monthly data indicates that the coefficient of the trend variable is positive, implying that in recent months road fatalities are increasing in Brunei, which is supported by media reports. We have compared Brunei's road fatality data with Australia, Singapore and Malaysia and found that Brunei's road fatality rate is lower than Singapore and Malaysia, but higher than Australia. This indicates that there are still opportunities to reduce road fatalities in Brunei if additional effective road safety strategies are implemented like in Australia without interfering in the economic and social development of Brunei.     

Technological advances and the decision to invest

Technological advances impact a firm’s investment decision, as they affect the investment cost. They can also affect the profitability due to demand shocks. We study a firm’s optimal investment decision when technological advances occur as surprises and induce uncertain reductions in the investment cost and in earnings. Despite this complex setting we derive closed-form solutions for the investment option value and the investment threshold. When technological advances only impact the investment cost, we demonstrate significant contributions compared to existing research, which restricts the analysis by keeping the expected investment cost path constant. For example, we show that, albeit the investment threshold is constant, the option value is very sensitive in the expected impact of technological advances. Leaving the restrictive setting, we obtain more intuitive results, e.g. that more frequent technological advances increase the option value. When technological advances impact future earnings we find important long-term effects: the investment threshold increases, whereas the option value decreases. Finally, earnings volatility postpones investment, while uncertainty due to technological advances expedites investment.     

Complementarities and the managerial challenges of state enterprise restructuring: evidence from two shipyards

The authors examine detailed organizational changes in two similar Polish state enterprises over the past five years. Effective restructuring requires a coherent package of complementary change in at least eight aspects of the business. The requirements on management are formidable and suggest that state enterprise restructuring will be more difficult than is widely believed.