A score test for non‐nested hypotheses with applications to discrete data models

In this paper it is shown that a convenient score test against non‐nested alternatives can be constructed from the linear combination of the likelihood functions of the competing models. This is essentially a test for the correct specification of the conditional distribution of the variable of interest. Given its characteristics, the proposed test is particularly attractive to check the distributional assumptions in models for discrete data. The usefulness of the test is illustrated with an application to models for recreational boating trips. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reflections on the perspectives of the global economy from the point of view of emerging economies

 Recently a number of emerging economies, with high inflation and various kinds of imbalances have experienced what has come to be referred to as dollarization– the phenomenon of currency substitution where the dollar gradually replaces the national currency in the performance of its fundamental functions. The phenomenon is most commonly encountered as a component of the exchange-rate-based stabilization programs implemented in a number of emerging economies in Latin America, Asia and the Middle East. The fundamental issue we want to explore is whether this process forces the monetary authorities of emerging economies to act with their hands tied, as if caught in a trap. It is argued that when the expansion of liquidity and domestic credit is determined by the quantity of foreign-exchange reserves, an independent monetary policy vanishes and national sovereignty itself is shackled. Since this scenario typically occurs in a world of increasing globalization of finance, this paper also discusses (with reference to emerging economies) the risks and implications of capital inflows for macroeconomic policy autonomy, economic instability, and vulnerability to external shocks.     

Wheat policy and economy-wide reform in Brazil

In recent years, the wheat sector in Brazil has moved from governmental protection and public intervention to a free market and privatization. In this study, those changes are analyzed through measures of governmental intervention on nominal rates of protection and on welfare of producers and consumers. Elasticities of demand and supply of wheat are estimated, and the effects of changes in policies are analyzed under official and shadow exchange rates. Welfare measures indicate that almost US$ 8 billion were spent from 1970 until 1989 with policies to subsidize producers and consumers. The policy-induced stimulus to consumer demand exceeded the stimulus to domestic production, and self sufficiency in wheat declined. The reduction in wheat subsidies since 1989 was more than an isolated sector-specific policy. It was part of macroeconomic antiinflation policy, and it coincided with other economy-wide changes such as real appreciation and a decline in international commodity prices.     

A Reasonable Price for Electricity

Over the past decade, consumers’ electricity costs have risen disproportionally compared with the average inflation rate, mostly as the result of increased network tariffs and taxes. This development appears to be at odds with the stated purpose of introducing competition into the electricity sector through implementation of the EU Electricity Directive to realize benefits for end users in terms of lower prices as well as better quality of goods and services. This article discusses the conditions under which the price of electricity can be considered reasonable according to the Directive. The meaning of the term “reasonable” may depend on a number of factors, and it is necessary to distinguish between the various components of an energy bill. The various objectives of the directive could lead to diverging interpretations, even when applied to the same component of the bill, the supply price. According to the underlying market principle, reasonable may imply “economically efficient.” However, in line with the principle of universal service for households, reasonable should be understood to mean “affordable.” The article also examines the conditions under which a substantial rise of consumer energy costs due to increasing network tariffs can be justified. The focus of this article is on electricity, although, as stipulated under the Third Gas Directive, a consumer’s right to pay a reasonable price, while enjoying universal service, applies equally to gas. Therefore, the observations outlined in this paper are relevant also for gas consumers.     

Endogenous Growth and Intellectual Property Rights: A North–South Modelling Proposal with Population Ageing

This paper studies the effect of intellectual property rights (IPR) on economic growth, in the light of population ageing, i.e., in a more realistic context. The analysis is motivated by the implications of population ageing on economic growth. Moreover, this study analyses this relationship in a north–south framework where there is a healthcare sector. We conclude that population ageing has no impact on the sign of the IPR effect on economic growth. However, it positively affects the steady‐state growth rate. Finally, under some conditions, the presence of the healthcare sector also increases the steady‐state growth rate.     

A multivariate innovations state space Beveridge–Nelson decomposition

The Beveridge–Nelson vector innovations structural time series framework is a new formulation that decomposes a set of variables into their permanent and transitory components. The proposed framework is flexible, modelling inter-series relationships and common features in a simple manner. In particular, it is shown that this new specification is simpler than conventional state space and cointegration approaches. The approach is illustrated using a trivariate data set comprising the GDP of Australia, the USA and the UK.     

Cooperative R&D and Commitment to A Policy of Know-how Trading

In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework to investigate the impact of adopting a strategy of know-how trading on the degree of research and development (R&D) cooperation. We show that the consequences of cooperation in know-how sharing under the conditions of the model are similar to a policy of cooperation in R&D investments in areas with large spillovers. An industry-wide policy of cooperation among competitors with respect to R&D investment and sharing would simply result in maximal joint profits. This cooperative R&D outcome could be generalized to any degree of spillover other than 100%. In this paper, the commitment to a policy of know-how trading by the participants in an industry is explained by the firm’s attempt to induce the equilibrium of a single industry-wide cooperative research joint venture. In a repeated game framework, we show that pre-commitments by non-cooperative firms to disclose their own know-how to the industry can be effective in inducing cooperative R&D investments by the participants.     

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Endogenous technological progress in a multi-sector growth model

This paper presents an endogenous growth model driven by human capital, where human capital can be allocated across three sectors: the production of the final consumption good, the educational sector and the production of technological capital (in the form of knowledge or ideas). In our model, which also includes public expenditure and population growth, labor augmenting technical progress is endogenous and this enriches the transitional dynamics of the economy. With respect to ideas-based growth models, we assume knowledge is produced according to a neoclassical technology, combining ideas and human capital. Such an assumption is motivated by empirical works showing the existence of significant decreasing returns in the creation of ideas at the aggregate level (as Kortum, 1993; and Pessoa, 2005) and of the weak relationship between some inputs of the knowledge production process (as the number of researchers) and the total factor productivity growth rate (as Jones, 2002). Under some general conditions, this economy exhibits the existence of a steady state equilibrium and an unstable multidimensional manifold. Numerical examples are provided to show the existence of stable arms.