On length biased dynamic measure of past inaccuracy

In the present communication we introduce a length biased past inaccuracy measure between two past lifetime distributions over the interval (0, t). Based on proportional reversed hazard model characterization problem for the length biased inaccuracy measure has been studied. An upper bound to the weighted past inaccuracy measure has also been derived, which reduces to the upper bound obtained in case of weighted past entropy.     

国际调停发生的讨价还价模型:一种定量检验

国际冲突是否经历调停是由调停的供给方(即调停者)和需求方(即争端方)共同决定的。与既有大多数研究强调影响调停发生的"深层原因"不同,作者借鉴理性主义解释视角,着重关注影响调停发生的"即时原因",即将调停的发生视为需求方讨价还价成功的结果。根据理性主义的解释,影响需求方讨价还价结果的主要障碍有私有信息(包括故意误传私有信息)、承诺问题和议题不可分割性三种,而第三方调停者的干预可以帮助需求方克服这三种障碍,从而增加调停发生的可能性。作者使用"国际危机行为"和"国际冲突管理"两个数据库数据,运用统计方法检验了调停发生的讨价还价模型。统计结果表明,当影响需求方之间讨价还价结果的三种问题得到有效管理时,国际冲突更容易经历调停。     

关于石油企业税费问题的几点思考

在社会主义市场经济条件下,石油企业负有依法纳税的义务,同时还要不断提高经营效益,维护投资者的利益。文章围绕石油税收政策体系的建设问题,重点讨论了石油税费政策与石油价格变化的关系、税费水平与资源禀赋和油品品质的关系、石油税费与节能环保的关系以及如何依据石油工业发展和石油市场变化情况及时调整石油税收政策。通过分析现行税制在实践中的作用与效果,探讨了税制改革对石油石化产业发展的影响,并提出对策和建议。     

高等教育能打破社会阶层固化吗?--基于有序probit半参数估计及夏普里值分解的实证分析

文章基于2013年中国综合社会调查(CGSS2013)数据,首先运用有序probit 模型的半参数估计方法检验高等教育对社会阶层的影响,其次采用最新发展的基于 R2的夏普里值方法测度高等教育对社会分层形成的贡献率,并从区域视角管窥经济发展和市场化转型条件下高等教育受影响的演进趋势。结果显示：(1)接受过高等教育的居民,确实拥有更高的社会阶层评估。但若剔除家庭背景带来的接受高等教育机会的差距,高等教育促进社会阶层流动的能力明显弱化。基于R2的夏普里值分解表明,高等教育变量的贡献率不到10%,撇去高等教育的代际传递效应后,净效应更低。(2)东部地区有微弱的证据显示高等教育带来的社会阶层提升效应正在展现。无论是从总贡献率还是分解后的直接贡献率看,东部地区的百分比贡献都要高于中西部地区。这说明随着经济发展和市场化改革的推进,高等教育改善社会分层的效果有可能会强化。(3)影响社会分层差异最重要的因素为家庭过去的社会阶层,即社会阶层分布存在明显的代际传递现象。另外,个体特征及经济特征也是影响社会分层的重要因素。文章研究显示,要进一步推进开放型社会阶层的形成,需要在构建市场化导向能力本位的新型社会流动体系制度框架下,确立更为公平的高等教育竞争机制及补偿机制。     

Selecting container port via a fuzzy ANP-based approach: A case study in the Marmara Region,Turkey

In this case study, a real world problem of a production firm in the Marmara Region, Turkey was considered. In the current situation, the firm works with different third-party logistics firms and uses different ports each time. However, they have some quality problems and decided to work with a logistics firm by using the most convenient port alternative. A number of conflicting qualitative and quantitative criteria exist for evaluating alternative ports. Qualitative criteria are often accompanied by ambiguities and vagueness. To cope with this problem, the fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) method is used in this study. First, we defined the region specific criteria consisting of the twenty sub-criteria under the six main criteria clusters that influence the selection of container port. Then seven alternative container ports located in the Marmara Sea were determined. The results showed that the most convenient district for the container port is Istanbul District, which is one of the biggest economical centers in Eastern Europe.     

金融危机背景下"保增长、调结构"的信贷资源配置研究——以山东省为例

囿于现阶段中国经济实际,信贷政策必然成为货币政策的一个组成部分,并承担着促进经济增长和引导经济结构凋整的双重使命.2008年下半年以来,在应对国际金融危机冲击、实施适度宽松货币政策的背景下,信贷资源配置成为中国经济"保增长、调结构"的重要手段.本文通过对信贷结构与经济产出结构进行协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,验证了信贷增长对于经济产出增长的积极作用,为经济结构调整中的信贷资源配置提供了思路.     

How to predict transfer of training? Investigating the application of the unified model of task-specific motivation

Transfer motivation is an important factor influencing transfer of training. However, earlier research often did not investigate transfer motivation as a multidimensional construct. The unified model of task-specific motivation (UMTM) takes into account that (transfer) motivation is multidimensional by including both affective and cognitive motivational components and their antecedents. Prior research has provided evidence that the UMTM can predict self-reported transfer of training, but is unclear whether it also can predict transfer reported by expert external raters. Moreover, it is unclear whether controlling for prior knowledge matters for the relationship between transfer motivation and transfer of training. This study improves on existing research by accounting for both of these gaps in the literature. Data were collected among 299 participants who filled in a questionnaire about the UMTM components directly after attending a writing training. They also handed in written documents before, and 6 weeks after the training, which were rated on transfer by trainers. Outcomes showed that components of the UMTM positively predict externally reported transfer when prior knowledge was controlled for. The outcomes imply that the UMTM has predictive value for transfer of training and points out which factors influence whether transfer does or does not occur.     

The European Union’s Constitutional Crisis—Causes and Consequences

The rejection of the treaty establishing a European constitution by French and Dutch voters has thrown the EU into a deep crisis. What developments in the EU contributed to these referenda results? What consequences are to be drawn for the continuation of integration and the integration goal, the governance of the EU-25 and the further planned enlargements? What flaws are there in the present draft constitution and how can these be dealt with?