Parisian options with jumps: a maturity–excursion randomization approach

This paper introduces an analytically tractable method for the pricing of European and American Parisian options in a flexible jump–diffusion model. Our contribution is threefold. First, using a double Laplace–Carson transform with respect to the option maturity and the Parisian (excursion) time, we obtain closed-form solutions for different types of Parisian contracts. Our approach allows us also to analytically disentangle contributions of the jump and diffusion components for Parisian options in the excursion region. Second, we provide numerical examples and quantify the impact of jumps on the option price and the Greeks. Finally, we study the non-monotonic effects of volatility and jump intensity close to the excursion barrier, which are important for shareholders’ investment policy decisions in a levered firm.     

Consumer confidence as a GDP determinant in New EU Member States: a view from a time-varying perspective

This paper offers a pioneer attempt to unveil the time-varying impact of consumer confidence on GDP growth. The empirical analysis is based on a state space model with time-varying coefficients, which is employed on a dataset from 11 New EU Member States. It is shown that the impact of consumer confidence (reflecting the overall uncertainty level in the country) skyrockets in the 2008 Great Recession, providing evidence that the recent crisis was to some extent psychologically governed. After that, the influence of consumer confidence on GDP mostly stabilizes at earlier levels. The EU accession seems not to play an important role in the observed relationship. The obtained conclusions are quite robust across countries and remain intact upon the inclusion of additional control variables in the model. A possible solution for keeping the psychological determinants of the crisis under control is a prompt, coherent, and clearly communicated crisis management policy, which might help preventing a momentous drop of consumer confidence and overall uncertainty.     

Antecedents and outcomes of fashion innovativeness in retailing

Challenging market conditions force the fashion industry to find new ways of introducing new products, adjusting and stimulating unplanned purchases within fashion stores. Fashion innovativeness and visual merchandising play a key role in this challenge. This study examines how fashion innovativeness is related to motivational factors for shopping and actual unplanned purchases in fashion retailing. It also investigates the moderating effect of visual merchandising on the relationship between fashion innovativeness and unplanned purchases. The data, obtained through a consumer survey, were analysed using factor analyses and structural equation modelling. The results show that fashion innovativeness is positively affected by sexual attraction, shopping for recreation, recognition enhancement, and aesthetic expression, and positively influences unplanned purchases. The link between fashion innovativeness and unplanned purchases is moderated by visual merchandising. This study also provides recommendations for retailers on increasing unplanned purchases in their stores using the concept of fashion innovativeness.     

The antecedents of SME innovativeness in an emerging transition economy

Understanding forces that contribute to the success of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) is very important, as these enterprises are vital for both developed and developing economies. Since innovativeness is among the most important means through which such businesses contribute to economic growth, numerous research studies were conducted to determine which factors positively impact SME's innovative efforts. This is an even more important issue for developing economies, where SMEs are often faced with inadequate infrastructure. Since there is a lack of studies on SME innovation in developing economies, often policy in such countries is based on findings from developed countries.In this paper, we explore factors that drive innovation activities in SMEs in a small emerging transition economy (Croatia), and compare it with findings from developed economies. In addition to factors used in most previous studies, we consider market scope, firm's market orientation and presence of strategic, managerial and marketing changes. We find that most factors that were found to be important in developed economies are important in developing economies as well. In addition to that, market scope was discovered to be a very important factor in both product and process innovation. Implementing corporate changes has positive impact on radical product innovation while implementing new organizational structures has positive effect on incremental innovation. When investigating determinants of product innovation, we distinguish new products of low novelty from new products of high novelty, and show that they need to be supported by different policies. To gain additional insight in innovation efforts, we examine obstacles to innovation. We find that firms that report facing obstacles are not less likely to innovate less, which suggests that innovators are able to work around obstacles without damaging effects to innovation. This study is based on a postal survey of 448 SMEs in Croatia, which was performed in 2004.     

The impact of China's imports on European Union industrial employment

As the EU's biggest supplier of imported goods and a second trading partner, China has become an increasingly important actor on the global economic scene. This paper reports new evidence through analyzing whether the EU labour market is affected by exposure to imports from China. Drawing on a panel dataset of 27 EU countries, over the 2003–2013 period, and using the pooled mean group estimator, the results show that imports from China have a negative effect on industrial employment. This result holds separately for the all analyzed categories: all products, manufactured products as well as for the sub‐groups.     

Transit migration

Unauthorized international migration to the advanced countries has become increasingly more costly and indirect. The hazardous land and sea routes that pass through one or more transit countries offer liquidity‐constrained individuals an opportunity to economize on the pecuniary cost of migration as well as to work along the way to pay for the next leg of the journey. This paper analyzes the optimal behavior of transit migrants and examines its implications for the effectiveness of immigration control measures of the transit and final‐destination countries in deterring unauthorized migration. Strengthening of border controls at the final destination is shown to increase the relative effectiveness of internal enforcement measures of the transit countries, while tougher internal enforcement in the transit countries increases the relative effectiveness of border controls at the final destination.     

Monetary policy transmission mechanisms in Serbia: evidence from the fully-fledged inflation targeting regime

This article examines the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanisms in the Serbian economy, covering the period from January 2009 (the point at which the formal switch to the fully-fledged inflation targeting regime was made) to December 2013. The results of the recursive VAR models suggest that the exchange rate and credit channels play a major role in the monetary transmission process, whereas this is not true in the case of the interest rate channel. However, the results of the non-recursive VAR models show that the role of the exchange rate has diminished over time. On the other hand, the credit channel has become much more influential. Thus, if one of the overriding objectives of adopting the explicit inflation targeting regime is to enhance the importance of other channels apart from the exchange rate channel, which could make monetary policy more effective in achieving price and financial stability, the switch to the inflation targeting regime is justified.     

An extended matrix of economic growth and corresponding dynamic system

This paper considers an extended matrix of growth and corresponding dynamic system. The aim of this consideration is to define and analyse different cases of interdependences based on the extended matrix of growth. The system on the basis of the extended matrix of growth is built on the general structure of sectors growth. This generalized structure is expressed by the direct and indirect growth rates among sectors and exogenous factors. The main characteristic of this system is that it can be formulated and examined under various conditions. This is because of the fact that growth is characteristic of all economic processes, and the extended matrix of growth has the capability of including and expressing the structural and dynamic aspects of the interdependence of processes. In this sense the extended matrix of growth is used to examine various systems of interdependence.