Forecasting electricity spot prices using time-series models with a double temporal segmentation

The French wholesale market is set to expand in the next few years under European pressure and national decisions. In this article, we assess the forecasting ability of several classes of time-series models for electricity wholesale spot prices at a day-ahead horizon in France. Electricity spot prices display a strong seasonal pattern, particularly in France, given the high share of electric heating in housing during winter time. To deal with this pattern, we implement a double temporal segmentation of the data. For each trading period and season, we use a large number of specifications based on market fundamentals: linear regressions, Markov-switching (MS) models and threshold models with a smooth transition. An extensive evaluation on French data shows that modelling each season independently leads to better results. Among nonlinear models, MS models designed to capture the sudden and fast-reverting spikes in the price dynamics yield more accurate forecasts. Finally, pooling forecasts give more reliable results.     

Electoral competition with uncertainty averse parties

John Nash's work laid the foundations for evolutionary game theory as well as the theory of games with rational agents. The Nash bargaining solution emerges as a natural solution concept in both of these settings.     

The dollar in the turmoil

We study the impact of the global financial crisis on the equilibrium exchange rate of the US dollar. We first simulate the impact of the crisis on the US net foreign asset position. Then, we calculate the equilibrium value of the dollar according both to a BEER and to a FEER approach. We find the case for a strong, although temporary, depreciation of the dollar even more acute than before the crisis. This suggests that the strength of the dollar in late 2008 and early 2009 may be short-lived.     

The role of domestic and cross-border venture capital investors in the growth of portfolio companies

This paper studies how the presence of cross-border as opposed to domestic venture capital investors is associated with the growth of portfolio companies. For this purpose, we use a longitudinal research design and track sales, total assets and payroll expenses in 761 European technology companies from the year of initial venture capital investment up to seven years thereafter. Findings demonstrate how companies initially backed by domestic venture capital investors exhibit higher growth in the short term compared to companies backed by cross-border investors. In the medium term, companies initially backed by cross-border venture capital investors exhibit higher growth compared to companies backed by domestic investors. Finally, companies that are initially funded by a syndicate comprising both domestic and cross-border venture capital investors exhibit the highest growth. Overall, this study provides a more fine-grained understanding of the role that domestic and cross-border venture capital investors can play as their portfolio companies grow and thereby require different resources or capabilities over time.     

HR practices and affective organisational commitment: (when) does HR differentiation pay off?

We argue that differentiating HR practices across employees leads employees to compare their situation with colleagues to assess the favourability of HR practice outcomes (e.g. money). These perceptions can be negative (i.e. feeling set back), neutral (i.e. feeling treated the same) or positive (i.e. feeling advantaged). Data from 13,639 Belgian employees showed that perceived favourability of HR practice outcomes is positively associated with affective organisational commitment, but the relationship is attenuated at positive levels. Thus, differentiation may be a double‐edged sword as the losses among employees feeling set back may temper, neutralise or even outweigh the benefits among those feeling advantaged. The relationships found were especially salient for work practices (e.g. autonomy) compared with economic practices (e.g. bonuses). Developmental practices were found to be least suited for differentiation across employees. No evidence of a moderating role of employees’ preference for equality (vs. differentiation) was found.     

Managing Interactions between Technological and Stylistic Innovation in the Media Industries

The processes of technological innovation have been widely researched, but their interactions with another type of innovation that is particularly important in sectors like the fashion and the media content industries have been neglected: stylistic innovation. This paper puts forward the idea that a better understanding of such interactions between content and technology in the media industries might help explaining differences in the receptiveness of firms towards new technological opportunities. The nature of the interactions, so it is argued in this paper, depends on three groups of key factors at the level of the product, the organization and the industry: among them, first, the locations of the different types of innovation in the media product's components; second, organizational factors like the identity and the reputation of a firm with respect to the above types of innovation; and third, the industry-specific characteristics of the certification environment in which the firms operate. Awards are discussed as specific instantiations of micro certification environments indicating quality with respect to stylistic and/or technological product features. To round off the theoretical part, a definition of stylistic innovation is developed with reference to the key concepts discussed in this paper. Within the media sector the literary publishing industry has been chosen to provide the subject of the empirical part. Two cases related to the introduction of eBook technology are presented: one is a study of the first digital literary publisher in Europe and the other is a case study of the first international eBook award, which mixes technological and stylistic criteria. Theory and cases lead to a number of hypotheses offered as potential departure points for future research into the interactions between innovation in style and technology.     

Innovation and Information Acquisition under Time Inconsistency and Uncertainty

When an agent invests in new industrial activities, he has a limited initial knowledge of his project's returns. Acquiring information allows him both to reduce the uncertainty on the dangerousness of this project and to limit potential damages that it might cause on people's health and on the environment. In this paper, we study whether there exist situations in which the agent does not acquire information. We find that an agent with time-consistent preferences, as well as an agent with hyperbolic ones, will acquire information unless its cost exceeds the direct benefit they could get with this information. Nevertheless, a hyperbolic agent may remain strategically ignorant and, when he does acquire information, he will acquire less information than a time-consistent type. Moreover, a hyperbolic-discounting type who behaves as a time-consistent agent in the future is more inclined to stay ignorant. We then emphasize that this strategic ignorance depends on the degree of precision of the information. Finally, we analyse the role that existing liability rules could play as an incentive to acquire information under uncertainty and with regard to the form of the agent's preferences.     

Incomplete model specification in a multi-pollutants setting: The case of climate change and acidification

This paper analyses the consequences of incomplete environmental model specification on policy design in a multi-pollutants framework. Focusing on the correlations between aerosols and greenhouse gases, the paper compares abatement and stock targets setting for various cases of incomplete model specification. Both cases of lax and stringent regulation, compared to what is socially optimum, may arise. Furthermore, the lax/stringent nature of the policies may evolve over time, so that the time horizon of policy design matters in assessing the impact of incomplete model specification.