France in the global economy: a structural approximate dynamic factor model analysis

This study identifies the main shocks that cause fluctuations in French output and their channels of transmission. It uses a large-dimensional structural approximate dynamic factor model. There are three main findings. First, common shocks, especially demand shocks, which seem to originate from the U.S., play an important role in explaining French economic activity. While international trade, relative prices, and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows are the main channels of transmission, the stock market, consumer confidence, and interest rates also matter. Second, France’s integration with the rest of the world has increased over time. Third, there is some tentative evidence of regional components in explaining French output fluctuations; country-specific components also contribute. The predominance of exogenous factors affecting French output, the asymmetry in the transmission of shocks, and France’s participation in a currency area argue for making French goods, services, and labor markets as flexible as possible.     

Calibrating spatial models of trade

Empirical spatial models of trade that are based on a mathematical programming specification often exhibit a large discrepancy between the equilibrium solution and the observed demand, supply and levels of trade flows among countries. This discrepancy may be due to several causes. Assuming, however, that a trade model is not misspecified – in the sense that behavior of the economic agents involved in the specific commodity markets has been included in the study and that the relevant policy instruments have been properly taken into account – the cause of discrepancy may be traced either to imprecision of unit transaction costs or to imprecision in the measurement of the demand and supply functions' parameters, or both. Policy assessments based on this type of imprecise models are distorted. This paper presents a methodology for calibrating mathematical programming spatial trade models of increasing complexity, from the one-commodity case to a multi-commodity model with asymmetric slope matrices of demand and supply functions. The proposed calibration procedure identifies corrections of imperfectly measured parameters. The calibrated models generate solutions that exactly reproduce quantities produced and consumed in all countries, as well as trade flows among all pairs of countries, observed in a given base year. Such models may then serve as a springboard for assessing the impact of various policy changes on economic agents in the countries under study.     

Agriculture production versus biodiversity protection: The impact of North-South unconditional transfers

The purpose of this paper is to explore whether international income transfers can improve or worsen the global level of biodiversity and global social welfare by changing the relative contributions to biodiversity protection and to agricultural production. Because of the public good nature of biodiversity, Warr's neutrality theorem suggests that such transfers may have no effects at all (Warr, 1983). A model is developed, based on the simplifying assumption that northern countries have little biodiversity whereas southern countries are endowed with natural capital in the form of (generally unspoilt) biodiversity-rich land. Southern countries allocate optimally land and capital to two competing productive activities, agriculture and eco-tourism. When transfers are organized from the North to the South, we show that Warr's neutrality theorem collapses. Transfers can either reduce or increase the natural capital in the South, depending on some empirically verifiable hypotheses concerning the characteristics of the eco-tourism and agricultural production functions. In addition, we demonstrate that welfare improvements can be obtained even with reductions in the level of biodiversity.     

用窒息价格辅助定价

本文重点阐述了在假定线性需求是合理的以及窒息价格的相关信息可用的情况下计算均衡价格的公式。它能够让分析人员信服,即使在数据非常有限以及缺乏数学支持的情况下,有效的基准计算也是可以实现的。此外,它还有助于阐明价格弹性与需求变化之间的变化趋势,     

民营担保企业运作现状及法律风险问题分析

本着为中小企业提供融资担保服务的宗旨,民营担保企业在致力于实现目标的同时,为解决就业问题、增加国家经济总值和增加税收贡献了不小的力量。由于法律风险防范意识上的不足,民营担保企业面临的法律风险逐渐暴露并呈现扩大趋势。如何能够有效预防法律风险,将其造成的种种损害降至最低,对于担保企业日后发展尤为关键。     

房地产抵押价值评估中被动高估风险的成因分析

2010年以来,中国人民银行和银监会多次提示各家商业银行关注资产泡沫上涨等原因造成的贷款系统性风险,一再收紧银根并加强对存量贷款的风险管理。本文剖析了房地产抵押贷款评估中三个关键概念的混淆,指出这是造成被动高估风险的主要成因。建议重新审视现有抵押评估技术准则,以非公开市场基准下的抵押价值代替市场价值,并更多地考虑成本法和收益法的应用,以防止上述风险在新增房地产抵押贷款中的产生和扩散。     

Estimating consumer willingness to pay for food quality with experimental auctions: the case of yellow versus fortified maize meal in Kenya

Biofortification of maize with provitamin A carotenoids is a new approach to the alleviation of vitamin A deficiencies in Africa. Unfortunately these varieties are yellow or orange, while consumers generally prefer white. Consumer willingness to pay for yellow and fortified maize was compared in experimental auctions in three regions in Kenya. The premium that consumers are willing pay for fortified maize (24%) was higher than the discount they require to buy yellow maize (11%), and in one zone consumers prefer yellow. Yellow color is, therefore, not an impossible obstacle for biofortified maize, although it would clearly be easier to introduce this maize first in regions where yellow maize is currently grown.     

IMPERFECT INFORMATION AND THE CHOICE BETWEEN COLLUSION AND HORIZONTAL MERGER

If the payoff obtained by the parties of an agreement depends on the values set for variables the value of which cannot be described precisely or monitored accurately, then the first best outcome may not be achieved. It is shown here that in some cases a second best long term agreement gives the parties a higher payoff, in other cases a short term arrangement is preferred. The interpretation of this result given in the paper is that when a long term contract is preferable, then firms are unable to commit themselves to it through a collusive agreement, and they will try to merge. Vice versa, no need to integrate arises when the preferred second best agreement is the short term one. The last section provides an example, where advertisement effort is non-contractible, while prices are.     

西藏矿产资源及其可持续发展初探

根据西藏矿产资源丰富、地质环境复杂、生态环境脆弱、矿业开发蓬勃发展的现状,针对矿产资源在西藏区域经济发展中所处的地位以及西藏矿产资源开发中存在的对矿山地质环境和矿区生态环境造成不同程度的影响等问题,从推进西藏矿产资源可持续开发的角度出发,贯彻落实科学发展观,走可持续发展道路;科学规划矿业开发布局,合理有序地开发矿产资源;加大找矿力度,进一步摸清西藏矿产资源家底;坚持矿业开发与生态环境保护并重,建设绿色矿山;依靠科学技术,推动矿业健康有序发展。     

从区位商视角论证构建城镇群的意义——以珠三角、大珠三角和泛珠三角区域为例

随着全球化和区域经济一体化的迅速发展,通过构建城镇群等城市联盟增强区域整体实力已成为提升城市竞争力积极有效的手段。从二十世纪九十年代初期起,先后形成的珠三角、大珠三角和泛珠三角城镇群,通过城市间的资源互补和优势扩散,带动区域整体水平,取得了跨越式发展。本文通过对珠三角、大珠三角和泛珠三角地区不同层次下各城市及区域主要产业就业人口区位商的计算比较,揭示了珠三角区域在制造业方面,大珠三角区域在生产性服务业方面及泛珠三角区域在生活性服务业方面的竞争优势,体现了不同层次城镇群内各行业的竞争发展趋势,由此验证了建立不同层次城镇群的必要性和竞争优势,为区域合作的政策措施提供一定的理论依据。