TIME-VARYING TERM PREMIA AND THE BEHAVIOR OF FORWARD INTEREST RATE PREDICTION ERRORS

In this paper I examine the time-varying expected term premium argument for the failure of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of U.S. interest rates. Using an unobserved components model to estimate expected term premia from March 1951 to January 1991, I find considerable variation in estimated premia and significant persistence in their volatility over time.     

Marketing and politics: Models, behavior, and policy implications

The American presidential election is one of the largest, most expensive, and most comprehensive marketing efforts. Despite this fact, marketing scholars have largely ignored this campaign, as well as thousands of others for congresspersons, senators, and governors. This article describes the growth of interest in research issues related to political marketing. This emerging research area lies at the crossroads of marketing and political science, but these fields have developed largely independent of one another with little cross-fertilization of ideas. We discuss recent theoretical, empirical, and behavioral work on political campaigns, integrating perspectives from marketing and political science. Our focus is on (1) the extent to which paradigms used in goods and services marketing carry over to the institutional setting of political campaigns, (2) what changes are necessary in models and methodology to understand issues in political marketing and voter behavior, and (3) how the special setting of politics may help us gain a better understanding of certain topics central to marketing such as advertising, branding, and social networks.     

Advertising Spending and Quality for Services: The Role of Capacity

In this paper we explore the relations among advertising spending, capacity and quality for services. Data from a sample of New York City restaurants show that mid-quality restaurants spend more on advertising than either high quality or low quality ones, contradicting the usual Nelson-type prediction that advertising spending increases with quality. Also, controlling for quality, restaurants with larger capacities advertise more. We present a model of services to explain these observations. The key features of the model are: (1) capacity constraints, (2) uncertain demand, (3) the presence of both informed and uninformed consumers, and (4) a technological link between capacity and quality. We argue that for services, advertising not only informs consumers, but it also can improve capacity utilization. Given this dual role, advertising is more valuable to firms with larger capacities and higher price-cost margins. The variation of these two elements with quality determines the advertising-quality relation.     

The Role of Target Termination Fees in REIT Mergers

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - Target termination fee provisions are widely used in merger agreements and require the target firm to pay the bidder a fixed cash fee in the event...     

Online Damage Control: The Effects of Proactive Versus Reactive Webcare Interventions in Consumer-generated and Brand-generated Platforms

Web 2.0 has empowered consumers to voice complaints with reduced costs (physical and psychological), and to share these with a multitude of other consumers on the Internet. As a public phenomenon, online complaints have a negative impact on consumers' evaluations of brands that are under attack in online complaints. By means of an experiment, we study the most effective means for companies to counter complaints as expressed in negative electronic word of mouth (NWOM). The results show that negative brand evaluations engendered by NWOM can be attenuated by webcare interventions dependent on type of strategy (proactive vs. reactive) and platform used (consumer-generated vs. brand-generated blog). This effect appeared to be mediated by conversational human voice. The findings are discussed in the light of practical implications for online complaint management.     

Customer relationship management in competitive environments: The positive implications of a short-term focus

Researchers and business thought leaders have emphasized that firms must think and act with a long-term horizon when managing customer relationships. We demonstrate that, in contrast to this widely held view, profits in competitive environments may be maximized when firms ignore the future and instead maximize period-by-period profits from customers. Intuitively, while a long-term focus yields more loyal customers, it greatly increases short-term price competition to gain and keep customers. Consequently, overall firm profits and customer lifetime value may be lower when firms directly maximize multi-period profits from customers. Specifically, we analyze a model with segment-level pricing where firms in a duopoly can choose between period-by-period and multi-period profit maximization and demonstrate that, in many cases, a symmetric focus on period-by-period profit maximization emerges as the Pareto-dominant Nash equilibrium. We extend the model in two directions. First, we demonstrate that this superiority of the short-term focus endures even when a revenue expansion effect applies—that is, when customer loyalty leads to enhanced revenues. Second, we examine the case where customers are strategic and incorporate the long-term implications of their choices into their decision-making. Here we demonstrate that it may pay for firms to be myopic even when customers are strategic. The focus on multi-period surplus makes customers less price sensitive to price variations at the early stage of the game. Consequently, the focus on maximizing period-by-period profits enables the firms to charge higher upfront prices and leverage this lower price sensitivity into higher profits. Overall, our results highlight the paradox that, when it comes to managing customer relationships in competitive environments, a short-term focus may constitute the optimal long-term strategy.

The effect of fit and dominance in cause marketing communications

Consumer processing of cause marketing communications featuring a brand and a cause is investigated in the context of the communication format (perceived fit and dominance) on consumer attitudes and behavioral intentions. Two studies using different forms of communication, public service announcement (PSA) and cause-related marketing advertisement (CRM ad), are used to examine these effects. Findings suggest that both factors are important to consider in any joint communication. While high fit is critical for brands, dominance is shown to be important for both in joint communications.     

Outsourcing of front-end business processes: Quality,information, and customer contact

We examine the recent supply chain phenomenon of outsourcing front-end business processes in this paper. Few, if any, of the existing theories provide satisfactory explanation for the rapid growth in this area. We use a model proposed by Sridhar and Balachandran [Sridhar, S.S., Balachandran, B.V. 1997. Incomplete information, task assignment, and managerial control systems. Manage. Sci. 43(6), 764–778] to determine the factors that might contribute to this phenomenon. Our analysis reveals that the ability of the vendor to forecast the task environment without bias and to gain sophistication in interpreting contract terms might make the firm indifferent between outsourcing and retaining front-end processes in-house. We validate our findings against the work of Apte and Mason [Apte, U.M., Mason, R.O., 1995. Global disaggregation of information-intensive services. Manage. Sci. 41(7), 1250–1262], who develop a theoretical framework to identify criteria for companies to select services to be outsourced. They base their decisions predominantly on the nature of “customer contact.” The combined theories are shown to provide a rich framework for identifying customer-facing tasks that can be outsourced.     

Understanding Firm, Physician and Consumer Choice Behavior in the Pharmaceutical Industry

This paper argues that the pharmaceutical industry represents an exciting opportunity to carry out academic research. The nature of the industry allows researchers to answer new questions, develop new methodologies for answering these questions as well as to apply existing methodology to new data. The paper opens with some industry background, then provides a brief overview of some important research areas and discusses the open questions in each area. Issues of data type and availability are also discussed. This paper is based on a session (with the same title and participants) that was part of the Sixth Invitational Choice Symposium hosted by the University of Colorado and held at Estes Park, Colorado during June 4–8, 2004.