A comparison of citizen and “expert” preferences using an attribute-based approach to choice

This paper explores whether expert judgements can be taken as a proxy for citizen preferences for determining investment strategies for public goods. As an illustration, we focus on the provision of Public Rights Of Way (PROW) by Local Government Authorities in England. These provide rights of passage over property to those other than the owners, and little information is available on the welfare effects of changes in the provision and use of PROW. Given limited funds, reliance on expert judgement could be a cost effective alternative for decision-making compared with stated preference surveys of citizens. Two methods are compared. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to elicit expert judgement to proxy citizen preferences for different attributes of PROW. The Choice Experiment (CE) technique is then used to derive preferences directly through personal interviews with citizens. Overall it was found that judicious use of AHP by experts can, in this instance, be used to represent citizen views. However, this result may not be easily generalisable to other settings.     

Extrinsic Rewards,Intrinsic Motivation,and New Product Development Performance

Reward structures can have a significant impact on the performance of new product development (NPD) teams. However, there are several gaps in our understanding of how different types of extrinsic rewards influence the creative performance of NPD teams. Drawing on key theoretical objectives for advancing rewards-creativity research in general, and NPD research in particular, this study incorporates a cognitive and behavioral view of rewards use. In so doing, we distinguish between three kinds of extrinsic rewards: financial, recognition, and social (based on their properties). We then draw upon self-determination theory to hypothesize the differential effects of three types of extrinsic rewards on intrinsic task motivation, and subsequently the creative performance of NPD teams. The proposed framework is tested using two rounds of survey data from 238 members of 64 NPD teams in the high-tech industry. Results of a multilevel structural equation modeling (MLSEM) analysis show that financial rewards have a negative relationship with intrinsic task motivation, while recognition and social rewards have a positive influence. Complexity of the product being developed not only helps to mitigate the negative effects of financial rewards on intrinsic task motivation, but it also reduces the positive effects of social rewards on intrinsic task motivation. Intrinsic task motivation is found to have a positive effect on NPD creative performance in terms of both the developed product’s degree of innovation and its quality. Theoretical and managerial implications are explored.     

Post‐Retirement Financial Strategies: Forecasts and Valuation

This paper uses a discrete‐time, discrete‐state Monte Carlo simulation model to evaluate representative strategies for investing and spending a fixed sum designed to fund consumption during the period after retirement. Two assets are considered – one providing a riskless real return, the other a market portfolio of bonds and stocks. A stochastic process for the returns from the market portfolio is proposed. Then a set of Arrow‐Debreu state prices is obtained on the assumption that the market portfolio is an efficient investment strategy. The model is used to forecast ranges of consumption and ranges of the ratios of year‐to‐year consumption, and also to estimate the values of components of future consumption.     

Modeling Newspaper Advertising

Mathematical modeling is recognized as a powerful tool for planning business operations. The purpose of this paper is to present a mathematical model for simulating a newspaper financial system. The model was developed from actual newspaper industry data and includes the effects of advertising and circulation. The use of the model to predict advertising linage as a function of population, income and advertising rate is included in the discussion.     

A PATHWAY TO HOMEOWNERSHIP? EVIDENCE FROM THE IMMIGRATION REFORM AND CONTROL ACT OF 1986

The impact of legal status on economic outcomes has been well documented in the literature with most research focused on labor market outcomes such as wages and occupational mobility. In this paper, I utilize the exogenous variation created the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) of 1986 to estimate the effect of amnesty polices on homeownership among undocumented immigrants. Using a regression discontinuity framework, the results suggest that the IRCA increased homeownership rates of eligible immigrants by around 4 percentage points relative to ineligible immigrants. Moreover, an extension to the main analysis suggests that immigrants ineligible for the IRCA adjusted their household formation by increasing the rates of coresidency. (JEL J61, R23, R31)     

From engineer to taxi driver? Language proficiency and the occupational skills of immigrants

We examine the ability of immigrants to transfer the occupational human capital they acquired prior to immigration. We first augment a model of occupational choice to study the implications of language proficiency on the cross‐border transferability of occupational human capital. We then explore the empirical predictions using information about the skill requirements from O^*NET and a unique dataset that includes both the last source country occupation and the first four years of occupations in Canada. We supplement the analysis using Census estimates for the same cohort with source country occupational skill requirements predicted using detailed human capital related information such as field of study. We find that male immigrants to Canada were employed in source country occupations that typically require high levels of cognitive skills, but rely less intently on manual skills. Following immigration, they find initial employment in occupations that require the opposite. Consistent with the hypothesized asymmetric role of language in the transferability of previously acquired cognitive and manual skills, these discrepancies are larger among immigrants with limited language fluency.     

Updating Beliefs Under Risk and Uncertainty

It is possible to represent decision makers’ beliefs on the algebra , rather than alone. Doing so allows us to represent decision makers’ perceptions of risk on one part of the algebra, and their perceptions of uncertainty on the other. This paper shows that such beliefs can be updated in a ‘Bayesian’ manner and that the resulting representation of beliefs is reasonable relative to some other approaches. The model of belief formation and decision making is then used to explain some instances of anomalous economic behaviour.     

The National Football League payroll cost function and labor market institutional changes

Sports club payroll costs typically comprise over 50% of sport clubs' total operating expenses, but little is known empirically about this largest component of club costs. Using data from the National Football League Players Association Salary Cap Information System from 1981 to 2000, a National Football League club payroll cost function is estimated to examine the impact of labor market institutional changes (strikes and collective bargaining) and to test existing theoretical sports club cost functions. As expected, strikes have a negative effect on total payroll, and the two collective bargaining agreements had opposite effects during this time period. Additionally, empirical support is provided for the standard two‐team sport league cost function.     

Implicit deposit insurance and deposit guarantees: Characteristics of Australian bank risk premia

This paper examines the hypothesis that CD issue yields of Australian banks incorporate a premium that reflects bank risk. Our empirical analysis of Australian banks' CD premiums suggests the data is consistent with this hypothesis and hence supports the view that CD holders do not perceive their deposits as being risk-free. Nor do we find any statistically significant difference between the premiums paid by private banks with implicit deposit insurance vis-a-vis those paid by government-owned banks with explicit government guarantees.